Beshear, but by a narrower margin than expected. He'll then lose to Bevin by a larger margin than expected.
No.
Beshear wins the primary, he beats Bevin by 2.
Thanks, I needed a good laugh.
Give it a rest already. You know nothing about Kentucky. Stop smugly pretending that you do, it's cringeworthy.
Your logic: "Bevin is deeply reviled by the vast majority of Kentucky voters and has been behind by wide margins to Democrats in every poll, therefore he is DEFINITELY going to win big because he beat a bad candidate in a year with abysmal turnout that favored the GOP (though Beshear won statewide at the same time anyway!), even though the dynamics of the race this year could not be more different, because lol stupid Kentucky hicks or something."
It's just painfully bad reasoning.
Yes, it's POSSIBLE that I'm wrong and Bevin is going to hold on (at least I ADMIT that instead of smugly dismissing everyone who disagrees with me), but all the signs right now are far from in his favor. Literally the only one that is in his favor is the state's presidential partisan lean, but Kentucky state/gubernatorial politics have NEVER had a strong correlation to Kentucky presidential/senatorial politics. Anyone who knows the first thing about the state's politics knows this.
In the midst of a massive GOP wave and in between two landslide losses for Obama in the state, Steve BESHEAR won the Governor's Mansion by a bigger landslide than either of Obama's opponents beat him. If you went solely by partisan lean, that should not have been possible. Ernie Fletcher (the last GOP Kentucky governor and a one-termer) should also have inevitably won re-election because he won the state by 11 points, more than Bevin did! And Bevin is less popular than Fletcher ever was!
Acting like Bevin is inevitable is just plain ignorant. Period.
Well, it's not like you've demonstrated that you put much stock in what I say about my own home state, Washington. I never said anything about "Kentucky hicks", and I despise Bevin, so it's certainly not the case that I want him to win. I've just seen this before. A red state has an election that many consider competitive because the Republican is disliked, people say "the dynamics of this state/race are different" and polls show a close race. Then the Republican wins by a surprisingly comfortable margin. The majority of the time, that's what happens, even in good years for Democrats. Most exceptions to this are pretty extreme cases (Roy Moore, David Vitter, etc.) I am factoring in Bevin's unpopularity. I'm not predicting he'll win by 30 or even 15. I'm sure his performance will be embarrassing for a Republican in Kentucky, but I've heard the argument about downballot races being less partisan than presidential races a million times. Less partisan =/= not partisan at all. And I don't see what a popular governor winning eight years ago has to do with the current political climate.
Look, I get that you're very invested in this race and want a governor who's not a national embarrassment. If by some chance I'm wrong and Bevin does lose, I'll happily eat crow, but until then, I'm not getting my hopes up. I've believed in voters doing the right thing and gotten burned as a result too many times to count.
Poll
