Does Gardner run ahead or behind of Trump?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 07:45:25 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Does Gardner run ahead or behind of Trump?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Does Gardner run ahead or behind of Trump?
#1
Gardner does better than Trump		  
#2
Gardner does worse than Trump		  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results
Total Voters: 58

Author Topic: Does Gardner run ahead or behind of Trump?  (Read 785 times)
here2view
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,691
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.13, S: -1.74

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 18, 2019, 11:53:59 AM »
I'd say he runs slightly ahead of Trump, due to more people on here having the presidential election in CO as more likely D than the Senate election.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 18, 2019, 11:59:39 AM »
Probably better. He has a strong moderate image in Colorado.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,336
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 18, 2019, 12:03:12 PM »
2-3 points ahead

Loses by 2-4
Logged
Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,986
United States


Political Matrix
E: -0.13, S: -0.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2019, 12:14:55 PM »
Marginally better. He does worse in WWC areas such as Pueblo though.
Logged
scutosaurus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,665
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 18, 2019, 12:27:30 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on May 18, 2019, 11:59:39 AM
Probably better. He has a strong moderate image in Colorado.

Uh, he doesn't?

As for the question, I think he'll do better by 1% or less.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,307
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 18, 2019, 12:35:13 PM »
Very slightly better. Probably 0.5-2% or so.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,896
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 18, 2019, 12:35:29 PM »
Better.

My current bet would be Gardner loses reelection 46-52%, while Trump loses to Biden 43-54%.
Logged
Sestak
jk2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,284
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 18, 2019, 12:40:40 PM »
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2019, 12:41:53 PM »
Quote from: SnowLabrador on May 18, 2019, 11:59:39 AM
Probably better. He has a strong moderate image in Colorado.

No, he does not.
Logged
Esteemed Jimmy
Jimmy7812
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,406
United States
Political Matrix
E: 2.47, S: -1.05

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 18, 2019, 12:47:17 PM »
Likely a little better but not by much more than 1% at most.
Logged
💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)
peenie_weenie
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,476
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 18, 2019, 01:01:30 PM »
Quote from: TX more competitive than OH on May 18, 2019, 11:57:57 AM
He’ll run better in the burbs by a tiny amount but behind in the Hispanic heavy southern part of the state like Pueblo

Quote from: IA IS Safe R on May 18, 2019, 12:14:55 PM
Marginally better. He does worse in WWC areas such as Pueblo though.

If he decides to campaign actively with Trump then I think he'll do as well as Trump in Southern Colorado and Pueblo. Polis mildly underper-formed there and that part of the state (maybe aside from some of Pueblo) is pretty dependent on ranching and energy extraction and there's no reason to see generic GOP brand damaged there. Gardner and Trump are tethered together there - if their prospects get better or worse, they'll happen in tandem.

Gardner will outperform Trump by probably 1 - 1.5 points. These gains I think will mostly come from "I don't like it when the President tweets"-type voters in Colorado Springs and Denver suburbs. Both will lose pretty badly.
Logged
UncleSam
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,514


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 18, 2019, 01:58:48 PM »
Trump lost CO by 5 in 2016 - he is unlikely to lose it by more than that, given Johnson took a big chunk of votes and Libertarians tend to break slightly more towards Rs if forced. Gardner will outrun him by somewhere between 1-3% I’d guess, and therefore lose by 2-4%. He’s not DOA though - that would be like saying a Democratic incumbent in NC is DOA in 2020 (if there were one).
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 18, 2019, 02:11:40 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on May 18, 2019, 12:35:29 PM
Better.

My current bet would be Gardner loses reelection 46-52%, while Trump loses to Biden 43-54%.
Logged
Zaybay
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,076
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.25, S: -6.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 18, 2019, 02:12:08 PM »
I dont see that much of a difference in vote totals between Gardner and Trump.
Logged
DaWN
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,370
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 18, 2019, 02:26:22 PM »
Better by a statistically insignificant margin
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,704
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 18, 2019, 02:40:17 PM »
Gardner is gonna lose anyways.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2019, 02:41:36 PM »
A tiny bit better.
Logged
brucejoel99
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,726
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 18, 2019, 11:11:28 PM »
He'll likely run slightly ahead of Trump, yes.
Logged
HarrisonL
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 465


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 21, 2019, 08:43:59 AM »
Everyone on here underestimates Gary Peters and overestimates Cory Gardner.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,283
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2019, 12:35:19 AM »
« Edited: May 22, 2019, 12:38:51 AM by IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ »
I think it’ll end up like CO-SEN 2016: The strong incumbent™ is expected to run ahead of his party’s presidential nominee by several points against an uninspiring candidate™ only for him to end up outperforming the nominee by just 1% or so.

So yeah, 0.5-2% would also be my guess.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2019, 01:36:11 PM »
Quote from: HarrisonL on May 21, 2019, 08:43:59 AM
Everyone on here underestimates Gary Peters and overestimates Cory Gardner.
Logged
QAnonKelly
dotard
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,995


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.50

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2019, 11:29:07 AM »
A bit better but nothing statistically significant
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 13 queries.