Describe Clinton/DeSantis/Scott voters

[Tekken_Guy]

Describe the Florida voters that cost Bill Nelson and Andrew Gillum their elections here.

[Mr. Smith]

Old-gen Cubans.

[brucejoel99]

Old-gen Cubans.

Pretty much this. Cuban-Americans & exiles (as well as Venezuelan-Americans & exiles & Nicaraguan-Americans & exiles) identified with DeSantis, as his message that Gillum is a socialist worked.

[ON Progressive]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

This. I think Cubans very well might come home in 2020; they seem to have warmed up to Trump.

[smoltchanov]

If Hillary Clinton - Cubans. If Bill - a lot of "ancestral Democrats from Panhandle"......

[Alben Barkley]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

This. I think Cubans very well might come home in 2020; they seem to have warmed up to Trump.

Based on what? Has there been polling to substantiate this or is it just a gut feeling?

Also, while I do think it's plausible that Cubans will swing towards Trump if Sanders (especially) or Warren is the nominee, if it's Biden I highly doubt it. They will probably actually swing farther away from him, because Biden is a Catholic and will likely be seen as more moderate than Hillary; it will be very difficult for the GOP to paint him as a socialist, unlike Sanders.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

This. I think Cubans very well might come home in 2020; they seem to have warmed up to Trump.

Based on what? Has there been polling to substantiate this or is it just a gut feeling?

Also, while I do think it's plausible that Cubans will swing towards Trump if Sanders (especially) or Warren is the nominee, if it's Biden I highly doubt it. They will probably actually swing farther away from him, because Biden is a Catholic and will likely be seen as more moderate than Hillary; it will be very difficult for the GOP to paint him as a socialist, unlike Sanders.

Didn't Florida exit polls show Trump looking strong among Cubans last November?

[Sestak]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

This. I think Cubans very well might come home in 2020; they seem to have warmed up to Trump.

Based on what? Has there been polling to substantiate this or is it just a gut feeling?

Also, while I do think it's plausible that Cubans will swing towards Trump if Sanders (especially) or Warren is the nominee, if it's Biden I highly doubt it. They will probably actually swing farther away from him, because Biden is a Catholic and will likely be seen as more moderate than Hillary; it will be very difficult for the GOP to paint him as a socialist, unlike Sanders.

Didn't Florida exit polls show Trump looking strong among Cubans last November?

Yeah. It seemed it wasn’t just anti-Trump Republican Cubans going back to vote for the GOP, it seems some actually warmed on him.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

FL isn't a tipping point race, anymore and Putnam would have won, anyways, Gillum didn't meet expectations, that he was leading in the polls. Graham was the better candidate.

[President Johnson]

A couple of Jews maybe as well? I remember that Gillum was briefly under fire for Israel comments or his afflilation with certain anti-Israel groups. Not that it was at Omar levels, but I remember him being criticized for that.

[Ilhan Apologist]

A couple of Jews maybe as well? I remember that Gillum was briefly under fire for Israel comments or his afflilation with certain anti-Israel groups. Not that it was at Omar levels, but I remember him being criticized for that.

The Jewish Press did endorse Ron DeSantis, for what it's worth.

Edit: Though that's irrelevant in the Senate race.

[Young Conservative]

Thousands of Hispanic voters ( not just Cubans). Many Latinx groups.

[Flyersfan232]

A centrist Cuban police officer. Who could vote trump in 2020 if warren or sanders are he nominee

[Crumpets]

Clinton Democrats who couldn't be bothered to show up in a mid-term.

[free my dawg]

Cuban boomers.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, the obvious answer is Cubans.

Cuban voters may not be voting Republican for President anymore, but they sure still vote R downballot.

In my humble opinion, we should wait until 2020 before making such predictions.

This. I think Cubans very well might come home in 2020; they seem to have warmed up to Trump.

Based on what? Has there been polling to substantiate this or is it just a gut feeling?

Also, while I do think it's plausible that Cubans will swing towards Trump if Sanders (especially) or Warren is the nominee, if it's Biden I highly doubt it. They will probably actually swing farther away from him, because Biden is a Catholic and will likely be seen as more moderate than Hillary; it will be very difficult for the GOP to paint him as a socialist, unlike Sanders.

Didn't Florida exit polls show Trump looking strong among Cubans last November?

Yeah. It seemed it wasn’t just anti-Trump Republican Cubans going back to vote for the GOP, it seems some actually warmed on him.

This.  Trump's approvals have been anomalously high in Florida compared to the other 2016 swing states.  I would not be surprised at all if it turns into a Bush 2004 level win for him.

[MT Treasurer]

This.  Trump's approvals have been anomalously high in Florida compared to the other 2016 swing states.  I would not be surprised at all if it turns into a Bush 2004 level win for him.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think the demographics are there for a Trump +5 win. He’ll be lucky to win Pinellas and Duval (Bush won the latter by 16% in 2004, which obviously isn’t replicable anymore), and he’s certainly not going to lose Miami-Dade by 6% like Bush did in 2004.

[Skill and Chance]

This.  Trump's approvals have been anomalously high in Florida compared to the other 2016 swing states.  I would not be surprised at all if it turns into a Bush 2004 level win for him.

People keep saying this, but I don’t think the demographics are there for a Trump +5 win. He’ll be lucky to win Pinellas and Duval (Bush won the latter by 16% in 2004, which obviously isn’t replicable anymore), and he’s certainly not going to lose Miami-Dade by 6% like Bush did in 2004.

You're forgetting the retirement communities where Trump is going to get like twice as many votes as Bush did (both because they have dramatically grown and because the FDR-era retirees have mostly passed on).  It's basically the Republican version of "Emerging Democratic Majority."  The state is being swamped with near unanimous R wealthier than average retirees and the Caribbean Hispanic vote is not  really moving left. 

[MT Treasurer]

^Obviously some retirement communities like the Villages are growing relatively fast, counties like Volusia have gotten more Republican over the last decade, seniors are now more Republican than in 2004, etc., but that’s not going to turn FL into another Republican state, it’s just the reason why Republicans are still competitive at the presidential level in FL. Trump won FL whites 64/32 in 2016 and still just barely eked out a one-point win, so a winning strategy which relies on maxing out the white vote will hardly guarantee Republican success in the future in a state where Democrats likewise benefit from a generation gap and an increase in the nonwhite share of the electorate. As for the Hispanic vote not really moving left, there isn’t much evidence to confirm this theory (and there won’t be any before November 2020) unless you’re basing it all on 2018 results, which is a dubious approach since there’s no way Trump will even come close to replicating Scott's or Salazar's numbers in Miami-Dade County even if he does a few points better with Hispanics than in 2016. The thing is, if even one or two of your assumptions (Trump has a lot of room for growth among white voters + the Hispanic vote will be more Republican than in 2016 + Trump isn’t a uniquely unappealing Republican to nonwhite voters) are wrong, the state will almost certainly be another nailbiter (maybe Tilt R), and if all three of them are wrong, it will flip Democratic.

I could maybe see a 3-point Trump win if he’s having a really good night, but I don’t think a 5-point win is feasible at all.

[Young Conservative]

Cubans could definitely hand Trump Florida this time, even as he loses the election.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

People who became more right wing in the interelection period. Think Fhtagn but in Florida and maybe slightly less extreme of a change.

[libertpaulian]

Sunbelt Moderates who are slowly changing parties but bitterly cling to their former home party downballot.

Think Dixiecrats who transitioned to Republican but still voted Dem downballot, but in the opposite direction.

[DeSantis2024]

Trump’s approvals in FL-25,FL-26,and FL-27 are all much higher than 2016 thanks to Cubans coming home.Granted trump won’t win FL-26/FL-27 but they’ll be closer in 2020 than 2016,he’ll also improve in FL-25 a decent amount.