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August 21, 2019, 12:51:19 am
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v3)
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (v3)  (Read 3161 times)
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« on: May 21, 2019, 12:49:39 am »


Griff's 2002-2018 Animated Precinct Map

Know Your History (Election Results):
1988: President
1990: Senate | Governor
1992: President | Senate (General) | Senate (Runoff)
1994: Governor
1996: President | Senate
1998: Senate | Governor
2000: President | Senate
2002: Senate | Governor
2004: President | Senate
2006: Governor
2008: President | Senate (General) | Senate (Runoff)  
2010: Senate | Governor
2012: President
2014: Senate | Governor
2016: President | Senate

Know Your History (Runoffs):

Every candidate in Georgia elections (save for Presidential candidates) must receive 50% + 1 vote to win office. In the event no candidate - whether it be in a municipal, countywide, state legislative or statewide election - receives that amount, a runoff shall be held between the top two vote-getters 4 weeks (in the case of non-federal offices) or 8 weeks (in the case of federal offices) after the general election.

Fun Fact: Runoff requirements have been changed multiple times throughout Georgia history. Until 1993, the threshold for avoiding a runoff was 50% +1 vote. After Wyche Fowler lost his Senate seat to Paul Coverdell in a Senate runoff, the Democratic legislature changed the provision to 45% +1 vote, where it would remain until the GOP took the majority in the General Assembly. In 2005, the GOP majority reverted the runoff threshold to 50% +1 vote, where it has remained ever since.

Another Fun Fact: From 1936 to 1964, Georgia had laws on the books to ensure presidential runoffs would occur if no candidate received 50% +1 vote. In the event of a runoff, the Georgia General Assembly would decide the winner. This provision was never utilized, due to no candidate winning GA with a plurality during this time. This provision was scrapped in 1968 in support of George Wallace, who ended up winning the state with a plurality for the first time in history.
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Ishan
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« Reply #1 on: May 21, 2019, 08:40:21 am »

David Shahfer elected Georgia GOP Chair.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 09:16:32 am »

A movie and show have already pulled their productions out
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2019, 11:34:50 am »

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2019, 03:36:45 pm »

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.

The South is 100% PRO-LIFE.
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Georgia Is A Swing State
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2019, 07:25:41 pm »

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.
I think she's definitely going to get in.

Someone associated w/ Teresa Tomlinson's campaign has been tweeting about her quite a bit lately citing how Amico donated to Romney in 2012 and donated to pro-life orgs as recently as 2016.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2019, 02:16:24 pm »

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.

The South is 100% PRO-LIFE.

Well, no.

From a 2014 Pew study (the most recent I can find with state-by-state data):

Legal in all or most cases / Illegal in all or most cases

AL 37/58
AR 38/60
FL 56/39
GA 48/49
KY 36/47
LA 39/57
MS 36/59
NC 49/45
SC 42/52
TN 40/55
VA 55/42
WV 35/58

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2019, 10:41:51 am »

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/gop-candidate-for-georgia-governor-pleads-guilty-fraud-charges/XlpeqFq7dGMWWawSYCtXwN/

Michael Williams pleaded guilty to fraud. Hes getting 4 years probation, community service, and a fine.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2019, 01:00:35 pm »


Guessing Kemp doesn't pardon him ?
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Moscow Mitch
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2019, 04:48:43 pm »

I think long term the black belt in Georgia is going to be much thinner due to blacks moving to Atlanta, and the remaining whites voting 90% Republican. That one supposedly super safe Dem seat in the SW Georgia black belt might trend Republican long term. The black belt was much smaller in 2016 than 2012.
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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2019, 03:34:54 pm »

"Spurred by the anti-abortion 'heartbeat' law, state Democrats launched a new group Tuesday that seeks to flip control of the Georgia House by winning 16 Republican-held legislative seats."

Technically, there is a path to Dem control of the state house in 2020, but it is extremely difficult:

1) Hold all their current seats, including Bob Trammell's HD-132 (Obama/Trump/Kemp district) and the really narrow flips from 2018 in the north metro (HD-37, HD-48, HD-50 and HD-108).

2) Not mentioned in the AJC article, but flip HD-106 (Snellville). Brett Harrell was unopposed due to Dem qualifying hijinks but Abrams carried the seat by 15 points. This is certainly a Dem flip as long as they remember to run a candidate; no amount of crossover voting will save Harrell with those kinds of top-of-ballot margins.

2) As the AJC article points out, there are 15 districts where the Republican candidate won with 55% of the vote or less, mostly but not completely metro Atlanta seats. The Dems would need to run the table on these seats. In other words, to win control Dems would have to win seats in places like:

- east and north Cobb (Dems have reasonable chances at HD-35, HD-43, and maybe HD-44,)
- north Fulton (chances in HD-49 and HD-52,)
- northern and eastern Gwinnett (they'll win HD-106 and have decent chances at HD-97 and HD-104,)
- HD-109 (Henry/Newton/Rockdale,)
- Athens area (HD-117 and HD-119; the Dems flipped these in 2017's special elections but the super-red lean of Oconee and Jackson counties flipped them back last fall - they'll need extremely high Clarke County turnout to have a shot at getting them back,)
- HD-147 (Warner Robins,)
- HD-164 (Richmond Hill/Fort Stewart/Bloomingdale,)
- maybe HD-179 (Brunswick/St. Simons,)
- The heavily-black but GOP-held seats in SW GA (HD-138 and HD-151; I'm doubtful about these because of the general Dem decline in these areas)

Some of these seats are on the edge of competitive, but that's the nature of the state house map. Note that not all of these seats are in Metro Atlanta; there are parts of Georgia outside Atlanta where Dems are gradually improving, such as Dalton, Gainesville, Athens, and parts of the Georgia coast.

Current characterization of the state house: Very Likely R.
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« Reply #11 on: June 04, 2019, 03:40:33 pm »

In other words: GA Dems will NEVER flip both chambers of the GA General Assembly anytime soon in our lifetime ?
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« Reply #12 on: June 04, 2019, 04:15:40 pm »

In other words: GA Dems will NEVER flip both chambers of the GA General Assembly anytime soon in our lifetime ?



...
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skbl17
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« Reply #13 on: June 05, 2019, 02:42:42 pm »

In other words: GA Dems will NEVER flip both chambers of the GA General Assembly anytime soon in our lifetime ?

Never? No.

I think Griff's analysis from a few months back is on point (emphasis added):

Quote
GA, by default, has been on the IL pathway for a long time. This is where one big urban cluster and its metro area grows so big that it carries the rest of the state across the finish line kicking and screaming. That, given the attitudes in our party, will likely be how GA goes Democratic. It will, however, have many drawbacks - the most obvious one being that we'll probably be a minority in the General Assembly for anywhere from 10-20 years after we take the Governor's mansion. We'll end up controlling every statewide office but be incapable of passing even the most basic legislation. GA Democrats won't have a legitimate chance to truly govern until some time in the 2030s - especially now that Kemp has won (and maybe as late as 2040, depending). If the suburbs truly do crack, though, then some of this will be mitigated.

I fully expect Dems to win statewide offices here by 2022 at the latest (the offices up in 2020 - two of the PSC seats and the Insurance Commissioner - are possible gains,) but there will be lag in the General Assembly, so there will be divided government for a while.

At the very least, there will be no GOP supermajorities in the General Assembly - that ship has sailed - so a future Dem governor won't have to deal with the same flood of veto overrides Roy Cooper had to deal with in North Carolina. On the other hand, a Dem governor will have trouble getting their agenda through the legislature in the first place.
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« Reply #14 on: June 05, 2019, 03:19:24 pm »

regarding our prospects in the General Assembly, here's a random bit of analysis I messaged Adam immediately after the 2018 election: the number of seats we'd win with a three, five, and eight point uniform swing.



I know it's all relative but "we'll have a majority if we win every seat where we got at least 42%" was (and honestly still is) amazingly close because I remember a time where the GA Dems weren't even able to run candidates in a majority of seats.

It won't exactly be easy to win the Assembly in 2020 but it' will be both reasonable and good to actually invest in and actually coordinate legislative races statewide for a change -- and honestly this is the one and only chance we have left to not suffer under a GOP gerrymander for another decade so I'm all in
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« Reply #15 on: June 05, 2019, 11:29:58 pm »
« Edited: June 05, 2019, 11:39:07 pm by Frodo »

In other words: GA Dems will NEVER flip both chambers of the GA General Assembly anytime soon in our lifetime ?

Never? No.

I think Griff's analysis from a few months back is on point (emphasis added):

Quote
GA, by default, has been on the IL pathway for a long time. This is where one big urban cluster and its metro area grows so big that it carries the rest of the state across the finish line kicking and screaming. That, given the attitudes in our party, will likely be how GA goes Democratic. It will, however, have many drawbacks - the most obvious one being that we'll probably be a minority in the General Assembly for anywhere from 10-20 years after we take the Governor's mansion. We'll end up controlling every statewide office but be incapable of passing even the most basic legislation. GA Democrats won't have a legitimate chance to truly govern until some time in the 2030s - especially now that Kemp has won (and maybe as late as 2040, depending). If the suburbs truly do crack, though, then some of this will be mitigated.

I fully expect Dems to win statewide offices here by 2022 at the latest (the offices up in 2020 - two of the PSC seats and the Insurance Commissioner - are possible gains,) but there will be lag in the General Assembly, so there will be divided government for a while.

At the very least, there will be no GOP supermajorities in the General Assembly - that ship has sailed - so a future Dem governor won't have to deal with the same flood of veto overrides Roy Cooper had to deal with in North Carolina. On the other hand, a Dem governor will have trouble getting their agenda through the legislature in the first place.

They should still be able to get Medicaid expansion through, at least.  Here in Virginia, of the roughly 20+ Republicans in the General Assembly who voted for expansion, only three of them got serious primary challengers.  That should send a signal to Republicans in other states, perhaps even Georgia.  
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2019, 02:27:19 pm »

The AJC is reporting that Kemp will appoint Doraville Police Chief John King as the state's insurance commissioner to replace the suspended Jim Beck. King will be the first Hispanic row officer in Georgia history. As for his qualifications, he has extensive experience in law enforcement and military operations but no insurance background.

Now, the AJC article notes that Beck is suspended; he has not formally resigned as insurance commissioner. King is expected to be a candidate for the full four-year term in 2022, but should Beck be convicted or otherwise compelled to formally resign, a quasi-special election for the position would likely be held in 2020 as required by Article V, Section II, Paragraph VIII of the state constitution:

Quote
In case of the death or withdrawal of a person who received a majority of votes cast in an election for the office of Secretary of State, Attorney General, State School Superintendent, Commissioner of Insurance, Commissioner of Agriculture, or Commissioner of Labor, the Governor elected at the same election, upon becoming Governor, shall have the power to fill such office by appointing, subject to the confirmation of the Senate, an individual to serve until the next general election and until a successor for the balance of the unexpired term shall have been elected and qualified.
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 10:13:23 pm »

Kemps going to South Korea for two weeks. Guess hes gotta go halfway around the world to find anyone who wants to do business with him now.
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« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2019, 03:14:01 pm »
« Edited: June 24, 2019, 03:24:42 pm by skbl17 »

We have two new developments in the 2020 General Assembly races, one excellent and one concerning for Dems.

1) First, the good: Dems have a candidate for HD-106. Emily Leslie, a Dem who ran a write-in campaign in 2018, will challenge incumbent Rep. Brett Harrell. The Gwinnett County district was strongly Dem downballot in 2018, and with the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire combined with the general Metro Atlanta trends, HD-106 is very, very likely to flip. Very Likely D, will probably become Safe once Leslie officially qualifies and assuming there are no redistricting hijinks in the 2020 legislative session.



2) Not mentioned in the AJC article, but flip HD-106 (Snellville). Brett Harrell was unopposed due to Dem qualifying hijinks but Abrams carried the seat by 15 points. This is certainly a Dem flip as long as they remember to run a candidate; no amount of crossover voting will save Harrell with those kinds of top-of-ballot margins.

2) Now, the bad: the Dems still have some room to fall in rural Georgia. In the same post, I mentioned this:

1) Hold all their current seats, including Bob Trammell's HD-132 (Obama/Trump/Kemp district) and the really narrow flips from 2018 in the north metro (HD-37, HD-48, HD-50 and HD-108).

Well, pro-life groups are targeting Bob Trammell. As previously mentioned, his seat voted for Obama, then Trump, then Kemp. Trammell retained some downballot crossover appeal in the parts of Meriwether County that have otherwise started voting Republican, but his HB481 vote ("no") has now made him a target. He'll really need to run up the score in Newnan and LaGrange to hold on. Tossup.



The Dems cannot afford to lose any seats in the state house if they want to win control in 2020. Remember, they need a net gain of 16 seats, and any loss ups the count of seats they need to flip by one.

(Twitter maps are courtesy of @elium2)
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« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2019, 07:25:30 pm »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

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« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2019, 09:28:55 pm »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.
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« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2019, 07:18:55 am »

Who is thinking about running for Lt. Governor in 2022, remember, we need a Democratic Governor if Abrams is VP in 2024.
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« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2019, 11:07:30 am »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know wed have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away
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« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2019, 11:10:23 am »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know wed have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2019, 11:38:41 am »

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know wed have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.

Mean the state house in general
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