Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Forsyth County adding five polling stations in 2020:

https://www.gpbnews.org/post/forsyth-county-adds-polling-places-ahead-2020-election

A needed development. Somewhat weird for them to backtrack, however: they went from having 22 precincts (through 2004) to 32 precincts (through 2008) to 26 precincts (through 2014) to 16 precincts. Guess the immense population growth has finally forced them to expand once again.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting:

Kemp appoints openly LGBTQ judge to Gwinnett Superior Court

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp is going to propose a co-insurance plan in the session in January. Idk why he just doesn't take the medicaid expansion, it makes fiscal sense.  It might even be in his political interest bc he's going to be fighting up hill to win again, he might as well put something big on the board and take away leverage from his inevitable opponent. 

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ To be honest, I don't know exactly how this all works and whether there are outside factors determining these premium reductions and groupings, but...gotta love how the more Democratic areas of the state get grouped into regions where smaller premium reductions will occur. Rating areas 2, 3, 5, 8 & 14 are combined the path of least resistance for congressional and state legislative D majorities. The poorer areas (the poorest of which I'm assuming is 16) largely get grouped into tier 2, while the most GOP areas (many of which are not poor at all; see 10) are in tier 3.

[QAnonKelly]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

Smh

[QAnonKelly]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

Smh

He’s gonna get killed on this when he runs again and he can’t really afford such an unforced error. He just needs to take the expansion.

[skbl17]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

[QAnonKelly]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

Now that Cobb and Gwinnett are gone, I wonder how far behind the other remaining R (mostly south side) counties are. I used to work in Fayette County and my grandparents lived there growing up (my grandmother died in 2013) and it’s def going to trend D. PTC being Mecca for old people will slow it down but it’s super educated and getting more diverse with every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2030, there’s no core counties in the area that are R.

[skbl17]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

Now that Cobb and Gwinnett are gone, I wonder how far behind the other remaining R (mostly south side) counties are. I used to work in Fayette County and my grandparents lived there growing up (my grandmother died in 2013) and it’s def going to trend D. PTC being Mecca for old people will slow it down but it’s super educated and getting more diverse with every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2030, there’s no core counties in the area that are R.

Of the south metro counties the Dems don't currently control, I think the order will be Henry (next year) -> Fayette (mid-2020s) -> Coweta (2030s if at all)

I'd be a bit surprised if the Dems didn't knock off June Wood in Henry County next year, considering that's a countywide race. Since the commission is currently split (thanks to Blake Prince's laughable primary challenge to Rep. Dale Rutledge, leaving his District 4 seat open and allowing Dem Vivian Thomas to win 59-41,) a win for Dems in the county commission chair race would give them control. District 1 is also up, but that will be much harder for Dems because it's red-leaning territory; most of the Dems are holed up in Locust Grove and the southern part of McDonough. The lines will probably be redrawn in 2022, but getting a GOP majority on the commission again would be risky, as it would require drawing 3 GOP seats - a tall order considering that the rapid blue conversion of the county has left Republicans mostly holed up east of GA-155, with only a small handful of Republican-leaning precincts west of there. A gerrymandered map would easily backfire like Gwinnett.

Fayette will be next, but it won't be in play for Dems until 2024 or so. The margin will shrink (Kemp "only" won it by 13, the worst performance for a Republican there in quite a while, and it's possible it could be within 9 or 10 points next year,) but it will stay Republican until the middle of the decade - that's the point where I think the Dems will have consolidated its voting bloc in Fayetteville, along the Clayton/Fulton border, and in central Fayette (the GA-54 corridor between Fayetteville and PTC) enough to make the county a battleground. On the county commission, Dems currently control District 4; eyeballing the map they could make serious plays for Districts 1 and 3 by the middle of the decade, along with the at-large District 5. Of course, I fully expect the lines to be redrawn if it looks like the Fayette County GOP is in danger.

Coweta is much further off; I can easily see it staying Republican until well into the 2030s. The only Dem "base" is in the city of Newnan, and even then they're contained to only a few precincts.

[QAnonKelly]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

Now that Cobb and Gwinnett are gone, I wonder how far behind the other remaining R (mostly south side) counties are. I used to work in Fayette County and my grandparents lived there growing up (my grandmother died in 2013) and it’s def going to trend D. PTC being Mecca for old people will slow it down but it’s super educated and getting more diverse with every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2030, there’s no core counties in the area that are R.

Of the south metro counties the Dems don't currently control, I think the order will be Henry (next year) -> Fayette (mid-2020s) -> Coweta (2030s if at all)

I'd be a bit surprised if the Dems didn't knock off June Wood in Henry County next year, considering that's a countywide race. Since the commission is currently split (thanks to Blake Prince's laughable primary challenge to Rep. Dale Rutledge, leaving his District 4 seat open and allowing Dem Vivian Thomas to win 59-41,) a win for Dems in the county commission chair race would give them control. District 1 is also up, but that will be much harder for Dems because it's red-leaning territory; most of the Dems are holed up in Locust Grove and the southern part of McDonough. The lines will probably be redrawn in 2022, but getting a GOP majority on the commission again would be risky, as it would require drawing 3 GOP seats - a tall order considering that the rapid blue conversion of the county has left Republicans mostly holed up east of GA-155, with only a small handful of Republican-leaning precincts west of there. A gerrymandered map would easily backfire like Gwinnett.

Fayette will be next, but it won't be in play for Dems until 2024 or so. The margin will shrink (Kemp "only" won it by 13, the worst performance for a Republican there in quite a while, and it's possible it could be within 9 or 10 points next year,) but it will stay Republican until the middle of the decade - that's the point where I think the Dems will have consolidated its voting bloc in Fayetteville, along the Clayton/Fulton border, and in central Fayette (the GA-54 corridor between Fayetteville and PTC) enough to make the county a battleground. On the county commission, Dems currently control District 4; eyeballing the map they could make serious plays for Districts 1 and 3 by the middle of the decade, along with the at-large District 5. Of course, I fully expect the lines to be redrawn if it looks like the Fayette County GOP is in danger.

Coweta is much further off; I can easily see it staying Republican until well into the 2030s. The only Dem "base" is in the city of Newnan, and even then they're contained to only a few precincts.

Yeah I think the southern and western parts of Coweta are still too rural

[skbl17]

In its report on the moving of Glynn County precincts out of schools, The Brunswick News also gave an insight on the new voting equipment. While the state won't use the new equipment until March, several counties did pilot the new system during this year's elections.

The report discusses Lowndes County (Valdosta)'s pilot of the new machines and poll officials' impressions of the equipment:

The system is pretty straight-forward, Channell said, but several logistical issues stuck out after he and some members of the board observed the Lowndes County Board of Elections’ trial run of the machines in its recent municipal elections.

Contrary to the board first impressions, Lowndes County’s elections personnel didn’t have much issue with the machines themselves.

“I think that the punchline was that they liked the new machines,” said Glynn County board member Patricia Featherstone.

Lowndes County had few complaints with the support that it received from the Georgia Secretary of State’s office or Dominion Voting, but setting up the machines and ensuring the privacy of those casting their ballots did pose problems, Featherstone said.

Because the new machines include both a touchscreen and printer, they take up around four feet of table space and two power outlets.

Assistant Elections and Registration Supervisory Christina Redden said she’s already working out how many tables the board will need to accommodate the new machines.

The font on the printed ballots was also very small. Board Chairwoman Patricia Gibson said this was because all ballots have to fit on an 8-inch by 11-inch sheet of paper, no matter how many races are on the ballot.

Channel said each polling place would likely need a “magnification station” for those with poor eyesight to read their ballots.

He also raised what could be a potential ballot security issue. In the counties that used them in recent municipal elections, poll managers removed the ballots from the locked boxes at the end of the day and counted them before putting them in another locked box for transport to their elections office.

Removing the ballots from their secure container before they’re transported back to the elections office is a problem, said board member Sandy Dean, but Channell added that the state has yet to release its official rules for handling ballots. As such, the issue could resolve itself.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia governor faces heat from right over woman he favors for Senate vacancy

Conservatives are mounting a last-minute pressure campaign to stop Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp from appointing businesswoman Kelly Loeffler to a soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat — a move that comes days after Kemp and Loeffler met with President Donald Trump to make the case for her.

...

The objections to Loeffler from the anti-abortion groups center on her position as a member of the board of directors for Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, the largest hospital in the state. Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of Susan B. Anthony's List, called the hospital "an abortionist training hub" in a tweet Wednesday.

...

But the meeting, which was first reported by the Wall Street Journal and confirmed by two people familiar with what took place, did not go as planned. Trump raised pointed concerns that Loeffler would be a needlessly risky choice. Loeffler would be a first-time candidate and the conservative state, he contended, was full of seasoned Republicans who could survive an election.

Trump also said he did not know how his supporters would respond to Loeffler. While she has donated to the president, she was not an original backer of his during the 2016 campaign. The president made the case there were several other Republicans, including Collins, who were safer bets.

[Gracile]

It sounds like Loeffler could be vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge.

[Oryxslayer]

It sounds like Loeffler could be vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge.

Remember it's a jungle primary for the special seat, so things will get weird. If it's loeffler vs Collins vs democrat A vs potentially democrat B vs whomever else might produce unusual results, especially since the jungle is on election night.

[Gracile]

It sounds like Loeffler could be vulnerable to a conservative primary challenge.

Remember it's a jungle primary for the special seat, so things will get weird. If it's loeffler vs Collins vs democrat A vs potentially democrat B vs whomever else might produce unusual results, especially since the jungle is on election night.

I know, what I meant is that her endorsement would likely motivate a more conservative Republican to run against Loeffler in the primary - and it's possible that conservative (probably Collins) could make it to the runoff.

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah Kemp can’t really afford to appoint someone who’s vulnerable to a primary.

[Adam Griffin]

I finally got around to adding 2015-2018 frames to my longstanding gubernatorial animated GIF (shown below as 2-year & 10-year/second versions).

2014-2018:


2002-2018:



1990-2018:

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1202631338685353984

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1202738504133988352

This retirement means that Kemp will get to appoint the replacement of Juatice Benham on the Supreme Court, rather than a non-partisan election in March 2020. This means John Barrow’s campaign for GA Supreme Court is essentially done.

Wonder what he does now.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I finally got around to adding 2015-2018 frames to my longstanding gubernatorial animated GIF (shown below as 2-year & 10-year/second versions).

2014-2018:


2002-2018:



1990-2018:

Excellent work, Griffin!

It really reinforces the trend we've been seeing over even the past couple of election cycles where the red areas have become more solidly red and the blue areas more solidly blue. 

[Adam Griffin]

Random, but North GA is getting its first snow of the year tonight: about an inch, but none of it is going to stick since it rained all day and it's hovering around 30. Was like 65 degrees this time last night!

[Pollster]

What are the odds Barrow jumps into one of the Senate races now?

[Rookie Yinzer]

What are the odds Barrow jumps into one of the Senate races now?

0.

He’s not going to win a primary in Stacey Abrams’s Democratic Party.

[Gustaf]

Anyone knows what's up with this bizarre story?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/12/16/chattooga-county-georgia-commissioner-wife-dumps-soda-reporter-head/