Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's preview of the Georgia primaries by Geoffrey Skelley: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgias-primaries-may-be-trumps-biggest-test-yet/

Remind me, GM: when do polls close in your state?

7pm EDT.  It used to be the case that polls in Atlanta were open an hour later than the rest of the state, but I don't think that's true anymore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quite funny in hindsight:

https://twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1527467240248991744

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1530594117599776768

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's a fun blast from the past, when David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler slammed Brad Raffensperger right after the 2020 election and called for him to resign:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1325910990735740928

The voters rehired him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

On the subject of crossover voting:

Democratic crossover voting brings call to close Georgia’s primaries

[GeorgiaModerate]

It's complicated.  I recommend reading this whole article in local news for the details:

https://www.ajc.com/news/atlanta-news/breaking-2022-music-midtown-festival-canceled/Z4WIDXAK6NHMRGUQLEIIORAZDU/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1554471831821864965

[GeorgiaModerate]

Out of curiosity,
How are the GA senate race and the GA Gubernatorial race looking?

Senate: Walker is a terrible candidate, while Warnock is a good one.  Lean D. 

Gov: Both are good candidates, but Kemp is a popular incumbent.  Lean R (perhaps close to Likely R).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just saw an anti-Kemp ad during the Braves game hitting him for his anti-abortion stance.  Powerful ad; I don't see it up on YouTube yet.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quick note: The two Public Service Commission elections scheduled this year have been cancelled.

https://twitter.com/rahulbali/status/1560770567854333954

Can… can he just do that?

This is NOT a case of Raffensperger arbitrarily canceling an election.  It's a long story (see this AJC article for the whole background) but it boils down to this:

1. There are five PSC district positions, but all of them are voted on statewide.

2. This setup was challenged in federal court on the grounds that it dilutes Black voting power.  (This is demonstrably true; only one Black candidate has been elected in the PSC's 143-year history.)

3. The court agreed and ordered the state to change the system, which would have resulted in postponing this year's two district elections.

4. The state appealed, and the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals stayed the lower court ruling, allowing the election to go forward in November under the old systems.

5. The plaintiffs appealed to SCOTUS, who reversed the Circuit Court (while leaving the door open for additional challenges), again postponing the two elections.

6. The state could have asked SCOTUS for an emergency stay to let the elections go forward in November anyway.  Raffensperger chose not to because time is short; ballots start being printed next week.  That is what the tweet is talking about.

Bottom line: this is a good decision for democracy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mluckovichajc/status/1560692963839180803

[GeorgiaModerate]

All Georgia election aficionados should read this AJC article about voter registration changes in the state over the past four years.  Here's the summary:

Georgia has changed ahead of this year’s elections:

Over 1.6 million new voters over the past four years, representing more than one-fifth of all registered voters. A growing and more diverse electorate. A swing state with close and high-stakes elections.

Many of the new voters come from groups that typically support Democrats, including people of color, those under age 35 and people from other states who moved to urban and suburban areas in Georgia, according to an analysis of the state’s registration list by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/in-battleground-georgia-new-voters-on-the-rise-before-22-election/W2VMBFGVXJCNVM3MIIKTMN4OYI/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting interview with AJC political cartoonist Mike Luckovich: https://www.ajc.com/things-to-do/ajc-cartoonist-mike-luckovich-on-his-new-book-and-his-process/H2FMRHHWA5AOBNKQSN3KTMCLLE/

[GeorgiaModerate]

It shouldn't be surprising that Abrams is running behind Warnock.  She's running against a much more formidable opponent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

[GeorgiaModerate]

From today's "The Jolt", the AJC's politics blog:

Abortion rights group NARAL Pro-Choice America released an analysis Wednesday of mail ballot request forms in Georgia that could give Democrats a new reason to be optimistic about November. The review was conducted by TargetSmart, the left-leaning data and polling firm.

Among the firm’s findings:

• Likely Democrats make up more than 62% of mail ballot requests, compared to this time in 2020, when voters modeled as Democrats made up about 48% of requests.
• More than 60% of mail ballot requests are from women voters.
• Black voters make up 37% of mail ballot requests compared to 26% at this time in 2018. Voters of color make up 43% of requests, up from 31% at this time in 2018
• More than 44,000 Black Georgians have requested mail ballots so far – four times the number of requests at this point in 2018.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-whats-at-stake-in-the-warnock-walker-debate/HWZOLTPWIZBXDOGBCBGBSWSDDM/

I’m not discounting the possibility of that being real but can they compare to something more recent like the primaries? Every time we’ve seen mail in ballot data it’s looked awesome for democrats (even when it hasn’t been) because mail voting has become far more prevalent and republicans have turned against it for some reason.

Also, we should see how it changes over time because if Cohn’s theory is correct that the “do something” caucus loves to answer polls on the first ring, then they will certainly be voting at the earliest possible time.

You raise some valid points, but I don't think this year's primaries would be a valid comparision because all the competitive high-profile races were on the Republican side.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892

Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/HeartlandSignal/status/1570447074252197892
Is there a collective suicide pact among this year's Republican candidates?

Given that you are a Georgia resident, what are your perceptions of the gubernatorial and senatorial races right now? How is Abrams faring, and has she made up any ground?

(Note: Edited OP because I had some D's and R's reversed.)

I think Abrams has certainly made up some ground following the Dobbs decision, as have many Democratic candidates across the nation.  After the May primary I had the gubernatorial race at Likely R.  Since Dobbs, Abrams has been hitting Kemp hard on abortion, and I moved it to Lean R with the expectation that Kemp would finish first in November, but there was a good chance of a runoff that would have an uncertain outcome.  Now?  If the above story gets real traction I would expect a close race with a very likely runoff.  It should be remembered that Abrams is very good at organizing new voters and turning out Democrats.  She's still behind, but has been gaining.

In the Senate, I think Warnock will finish first in November but a runoff is likely.  This view hasn't changed much except for minor fluctuations.  I've had it as Lean D the whole time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1570790548700823555

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good chance for the Forsyth County GOP to make fools of themselves this Sunday:

After the Forsyth County Democratic Committee announced plans to welcome Stacey Abrams to a Sunday night barbecue dinner, the local GOP announced plans for protests with loaded language.

“This is a call to save and protect our neighborhoods, our communities and our county! The moment is at hand,” said a Forsyth County GOP flyer. “The designers of destructive radicalism and socialism are crossing over our county border and into Cumming this Sunday.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-outrage-after-gop-warns-stacey-abrams-is-crossing-border-for-visit/TK4SRTLELRG3LAC7DL3K35LLRQ/

Read the flyer shown in the article; the GOP is planning to picket the route and entrance to the venue.

They backed off, which is for the best:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1570931142899167232

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got my UOCAVA ballot. Voted all GOP except Dem for Senate, LG, and AG.

Thanks, we'll take all the help we can get.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538: How Black Americans Reshaped Politics In Georgia

This is a must-read for anyone interested in Georgia politics.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Kemp loses, which I consider unlikely, it will not be because Trump voters failed to turn out, but rather due to a massive turnout overperformance of women and young voters in response to the Dobbs decision.  And if this occurs, no other Republican would conceivably have won; Kemp was their best possible candidate.

I disagree. If you look at the recent Special Elections: It wasn't about Dobbs in NY-19. It was about Molinaro not getting the Turnout he needed in his Home Base while Ryan overperformed in his.

Republicans have a Turnout Problem when Trump is not on the Ballot. That's why Trump is going around the Country helping Republican Candidates.

Perhaps so, but local Georgia Republicans don't seem to want Trump here:

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1576591151754199042