Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.

What do you think the odds are that Democrats can break 30% here? The primary was “only” 67-33 GOP, and that sounds reasonable, especially since other historically heavily segregated white counties in the south have begun to not be as monolithically R, like Shelby County, AL and Williamson County, TN.

I think they're quite good.  In fact I made a prediction in another thread that Trump would win by less than a 2:1 margin this year (he won 71-24 in 2016).

Regarding the demographic changes, this is what the Census Bureau currently has:

2019 estimates:

White 77.6%
Non-Hispanic white 69.0
Black 4.4
Asian 15.5
Hispanic 9.7

In the 2010 census, it was:

White 86.8
Non-Hispanic white 80.3
Black 3.0
Asian 6.9
Hispanic 9.4

But it's not just the racial demographic changes that are contributing to a political shift.  The county population has boomed (from 175K in 2010 to 244K in 2019) and a large element of this influx is younger and more educated people, typically in technical and professional jobs.  This is especially true in the southern part of the county, which has become kind of an overflow for the north Fulton cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will Abrams go for it?

I would love to see it. She could essentially serve as a placeholder for 2 years before running for Gov, giving the district a chance to actually have a primary/pick a candidate of their choosing in 2022 before the seat is locked up for the next 20-40 years. Without a placeholder candidate being selected, whomever gets chosen on Monday will hold this seat for as long as they want.

considering she turned down a senate run I would be surprised if she took it

We'll know shortly if she applies

It won't be Abrams; she's on the committee selecting finalists from the applicants.  The committee also included Keisha Lance Bottoms and Jason Carter.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/as-they-mourn-lewis-georgia-democrats-must-quickly-decide-who-will-succeed-him/EF7O5UNBVFFOFBMDXWRTBBXL3E/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gwinnett Democrats to spend $175,000 to increase voting in November election

[GeorgiaModerate]

The absentee ballot request site is up!  https://ballotrequest.sos.ga.gov/

I just requested mine - very quick and easy.  I got an email confirmation that it was received and also a PDF acknolwedgement that I could print out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

FWIW, I can verify the ballot request site works.  The absentee file shows my application (I entered it the first day the website was online).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone know how long it takes to receive your absentee ballot? I requested mine the day I made the below post.

Very refreshing to see Georgia in the news for a positive (& I don't mean a positive COVID test).

We also got our new absentee ballot request site on line on Friday.  Very quick and easy to use!

Thanks for the link!
[/quote

They've just started mailing this week. Tuesday was the first day they could legally do so.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Checked the absentee file and our ballots (requested via the portal on 8/28) were mailed out yesterday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does anyone have thoughts on the amendments and referendum on the ballot this year?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia voters wondering if their absentee ballots will be counted can now receive text messages, emails or phone calls to track their ballot’s progress.

A service called BallotTrax launched Friday to allow voters to sign up for alerts when their absentee ballots are issued, received and accepted.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/absentee-ballot-tracking-service-launched-for-georgia-voters/DIY2BMWKHZBR3N2GKYX4P4O2LU/

BallotTrax is at https://georgia.ballottrax.net/.  I've signed up for email updates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I voted a straight Democratic ticket (including Warnock for the special) yesterday.

Still waiting for our absentee ballots to show up here in Forsyth County, although my kid in Athens got theirs yesterday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Our absentee ballots, which were issued on Sep. 18 according to the SOS page and absentee file, still haven't shown up, so I called the Forsyth County elections office.  They asked me to give it until Friday because they mailed out over 30,000 ballots and the local post office was "overwhelmed" by them.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton unveils new mobile voting precinct vehicle to help with election

Officials claim the vehicle is the first of its kind in Georgia. Costing roughly $350,000, the vehicle is Fulton’s latest tool to help avoid the debacle seen nationwide during the June election, which featured some voters waiting all day in lines and many voters who never got their mail-in ballots.
...
The vehicle holds eight ballot-marking devices that voters will use to select candidates, one scanner where voters will feed their printed selections and two places to check in on polls pads.
...
For those who chose to vote in person, Barron said there’s another vehicle set to be delivered from the Ohio-based manufacturer Farber in the coming weeks.

The vehicles will also be used to react to polling locations that have long lines. The vehicles are able to zip around the county to fill any gaps should a precinct go down. But it might have trouble keeping up with Ga. 400 traffic, the speedometer only tops out at 100 mph.

Regarding the last sentence: Georgia 400 is known locally as the "Alpharetta Autobahn", and commonly has people speeding by crazy amounts (a motorcycle was recently clocked at 178 mph on it).

[GeorgiaModerate]

I voted a straight Democratic ticket (including Warnock for the special) yesterday.

Still waiting for our absentee ballots to show up here in Forsyth County, although my kid in Athens got theirs yesterday.

They showed up today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Today's Doonesbury comic hits Gov. Brian Kemp for his voter purges: https://www.gocomics.com/doonesbury/2020/10/04

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hey can anyone explain or link to an explainer of the constitutional amendments/referendums that are on the ballot?

Check Ballotpedia. I voted Yes on all three.

[GeorgiaModerate]

My guess is that Forsyth will go somewhere around 65-35 for Trump (for comparison, it was 71-24 Trump in 2016 and 81-18 Romney in 2012).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Metro Atlanta weekend voters pleasantly surprised by short, efficient lines

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rep. Drew Ferguson has tested positive for COVID, and Gov. Kemp and his wife are quarantining after exposure.

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1322231996312158209

[GeorgiaModerate]

Besides their presences in the final 48 hours of the campaign, where they are going says a lot as well. Particularly interesting to me is why Trump's team felt the need to choose Rome as opposed to, say, Gainesville or Canton.

(I saw some real internal data broken down by region at the beginning of October: let's just say that Rome/NW GA would make a better defensive choice for Trump if that data was accurate; it showed Trump sliding much more in NW GA than NE GA.)

That's interesting and frankly surprising. Isn't NE GA (Hall, Forsyth, Cherokee, etc.) more connected to Atlanta and thus more liberal? Do you see anything on the ground in NW GA to indicate Trump slipping?

Chuckle on NE GA being more liberal.

Actually, Forsyth and Cherokee are more connected to metro Atlanta.  As you go on I-75 north, Bartow County and above in NW GA are much less so.

The southern half of Forsyth (the part in GA-07) is becoming more and more an extension of the north Fulton cities of Alpharetta, Milton, and Johns Creek, and is going to vote more like them.  The northern part (in GA-09) is more conservative, but is also becoming less so as population booms off the northern exits of Georgia highway 400.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ballot was just accepted today, the tracking system seems a little worse than it was in the general though.

Yes, they're slow to update.  I took mine to the dropbox on Thursday last week, and it didn't show up as "received" until this morning.  But it did show the correct receipt date of Dec. 10.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1348600545611837442

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC/UGA statewide poll, Jan. 17-28, 858 RV


Approval/disapproval:

President Biden (approval of transition): 59/33 (strongly 41/27)

Former President Trump: 40/57 (strongly 29/48)

Gov. Kemp: 42/51 (strongly 10/29)

Secretary of State Raffensperger: 46/32 (strongly 22/20)


Favorable/unfavorable:

President Biden: 52/41

Sen. Ossoff: 50/40

Sen. Warnock: 54/37

Stacey Abrams: 51/41

Democratic Party: 50/44

Republican Party: 34/59

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/ga-bills-would-end-no-excuse-absentee-voting-automatic-registration/OBTWL3M6MJH25MI56XGNNUODPY/

End of Automatic voter registration in Georgia?

I think the end of AVR is unlikely, but some of the other restrictions will probably pass.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some reactions:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1441952396540796936

[GeorgiaModerate]

LOL.  Please let this happen.