Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1518370089476710401

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1518372417814605824

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1518378723480948738

[GeorgiaModerate]

Question:

Could Kemp having an embarrassing foil in the form of Perdue in this primary be helping him among centrist GE voters?

He looks sane compared to frothing Perdue

I believe that it will.  The key question is whether it will gain him more votes then he loses from some MAGA voters deciding to sit out the race, which I also think will happen to some extent.

[GeorgiaModerate]

From the debate writeup in the AJC political blog:

Veteran GOP strategist Brian Robinson likened the matchup to an episode of the Jerry Springer show.

“I’ve never seen such raw hatred in a debate on the state level,” he said. “It’s at the same level as those paternity test shows where the mom throws a chair at a man who swears he can’t be the father.”

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/the-jolt-takeaways-from-the-brawl-between-brian-kemp-and-david-perdue/Z736ECQ4I5GTLKIYWMRGC5AUA4/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp is quite popular among most Georgia Republicans; the MAGA wing is the exception, but they're a minority.  And most Democrats and Independents at least respect him for not bowing to Trump in 2020.  IMO a key question is whether he'll pick up more D/I votes in the general election than he loses by MAGA voters sitting out or voting against him out of spite. 

Overall, I'd rate the primary as Likely Kemp, and the general as Lean R with Kemp, Tossup with Perdue.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Did we ever get any fundraising reports for Q1? I Feel like we've hear nothing from the Abrams side or the Kemps side? (or even Perdue?)

Partial report here: https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/kemp-raises-27m-in-less-than-a-month-for-reelection-bid/5P72D7PVP5HZZISVRYSRM36LDI/  Don't be misled by the URL; that's $2.7 million, not 27 million.

[GeorgiaModerate]

More fundraising info:

Gov. Brian Kemp still has more cash in his campaign account than his rivals – but Stacey Abrams is fast catching up despite her late start.

The Democrat said Wednesday she raised $11.7 million in the three-month span between February and April, ending the reporting period with more than $8 million in the bank. She collected contributions from more than 187,000 donors.

...

Abrams, who entered the race in December, disclosed her financial report on the same day she announced she is temporarily pausing her fundraising solicitations and shifting her focus to collecting donations to help abortion rights groups in Georgia.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/politics-blog/stacey-abrams-is-cutting-deeper-into-brian-kemps-financial-lead/POXETR42MJGPZGH4WNNCDG6QQE/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MurphyAJC/status/1523779738271387648

Y'all can stick a fork in Mr. Perdue.  Kemp is going to win the primary without a runoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Didn't Trump endorse Perdue? The fact he's been failing this badly is interesting.

Yes, and Trump is campaigning for Perdue -- or perhaps more precisely, against Kemp (who Trump hates with a passion and wants to see lose more than any other Republican incumbent with the possible exception of Liz Cheney).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Perdue was a good senator and easily outperformed Trump in GA last election.  He’s ruined his image completely with this out of left field persona the last 6 months.

I also don't understand it as a strategy at all. "2020 election denying (by Trump) cost me my Senate seat in the runoff, so I'll double down on it this time."

[GeorgiaModerate]

It seems Trump has more sway in the Midwest and in the Appalachian South, and less so in the Southeast and the Rockies. Interesting.

I'm not sure it's that straightforward.  Local factors and candidate quality matter!  In Georgia, Kemp has been an effective governor (I'm a Democrat and will be the first to acknowledge this) while Perdue is a much poorer candidate.  Trump's endorsement isn't enough to overcome that.  Simiarly, Trump wasn't enough to put the awful Herbster over the top in Nebraska.  But in Ohio, the endorsement was enough of a factor in a large, muddled field to give Vance the win.

In other words, Trump's endorsement is generally helpful to a candidate, but it doesn't trump (ahem) all other factors.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1524866157672644635

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since the Democratic primary is mostly uninteresting, I'm thinking of voting a Republican ballot in next week's primary.  Does anyone have a list of the least Trumpy/crazy candidates in the statewide races (apart from Kemp and Raffensperger, who I already know about)?  I'm in the new GA-6 and also looking for the best choice there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Since the Democratic primary is mostly uninteresting, I'm thinking of voting a Republican ballot in next week's primary.  Does anyone have a list of the least Trumpy/crazy candidates in the statewide races (apart from Kemp and Raffensperger, who I already know about)?  I'm in the new GA-6 and also looking for the best choice there.

Treasurer: JD Mandel

Agriculture Commissioner: Madison Cawthorn

Georgia 6 rep: Don Ald Trump Jr.

I will give this a recommend for the humor value.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just voted at the early voting site at Midway Park in western Forsyth County.  There was a moderate line outside the building (on a hot, sunny day) but once inside it moved fast.  Took me about 25 minutes from arrival to departure.  I did cross over and vote in the Republican primary, voting for the least Trumpy candidates I could find.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1527796795035770880

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/derekwillis/status/1527797890600558594

[GeorgiaModerate]

Kemp-Perdue is a foregone conclusion at this point, but for a more interesting question...

Who wins the Republican primary for Secretary of State?  Will Raffensperger survive?  I expect that a lot of crossover Democrats (I was one) voted for him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1528441681191788544
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1528443821293461505
Taylor is well back in the pack, which is a good thing because she's bat*** insane.  I've seen some of her campaign signs in a rural part of Cherokee County.  Her slogan is:

JESUS
GUNS
BABIES

[GeorgiaModerate]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Probably more Democratic voters just stayed home because the D primary is uninteresting at the top.  At least that's the case in the admittedly tiny sample of my nearest family members; out of four solid D voters, I was the only one to vote in the primary (crossing over).  The other three all thought it wasn't worth the trouble.  But all four of us are certain D votes in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

For everyone speculating about crossover participation, we actually have data from last week on this (I'm doubtful the proportions changed all that much since).

AJC election guru Mark Niesse crunched the numbers and determined about 7% of Georgia voters who have cast GOP ballots so far previously pulled a Democratic ballot two years ago.

State election figures show smaller numbers of Republican voters from 2020 are voting in the Democratic primary this year. Less than 1% of Democratic voters participated in the 2020 GOP primary.

This would be enough to shift the 56.6-43.4 composition to roughly 53-47. 

So it’s not like 35% of democrats joining the GOP primary like some on here would say lol.

I would argue that a small portion of these crossovers could be legitimate swing voters who happened to change their voting preference recently. Even assuming that’s not the case, 53-47 early vote means that the GOP will run away with the majority of primary votes

Probably more Democratic voters just stayed home because the D primary is uninteresting at the top.  At least that's the case in the admittedly tiny sample of my nearest family members; out of four solid D voters, I was the only one to vote in the primary (crossing over).  The other three all thought it wasn't worth the trouble.  But all four of us are certain D votes in November.

I’m going to assume your family has much higher engagement than average, but noted possibility

That's probably a fair assumption.  Most of us are quite politically aware and engaged, though not all.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1529115917766037504

[GeorgiaModerate]

538's preview of the Georgia primaries by Geoffrey Skelley: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/georgias-primaries-may-be-trumps-biggest-test-yet/

[GeorgiaModerate]

I wish Georgia had public info of party registration like Florida and North Carolina.

That would be difficult because we don't have party registration at all.