Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[OneJ]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

[Oryxslayer]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

Hopefully the press learns from their mistakes here, and the expected mistakes in the coming weeks. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me and all that.

[n1240]

Bourdeaux is still running pretty strong, holding steady at winning 67% of the mail-in absentees. She's gone from 46.0% -> 47.0% in overall margin from the last 3000 votes added.

Up to 48.7% after Forsyth absentees, seems like I was correct to say the AP called this race prematurely.

Oh wow. If the AP called this many races prematurely here in Georgia primaries alone...

This is going to be a nightmare in November. A lot of premature calls are going to go for Republicans before Dem-heavy Counties finish

I'd imagine the AP might take more precaution in November to not prematurely call races. I don't have too sharp a memory of prematurely called races but I know the AP was forced to retract their call in CA-21, which should've been some sort of a warning that there is a fairly large margin of uncertainty for contests with considerable amount of absentee vote.

Of course it's necessary to address the larger scale issue of establishing infrastructure to ensure that a large number of absentee ballots can actually be counted before election day, hopefully states like Georgia and Pennsylvania use this as some sort of a lesson for November, and other states which have not held primaries under similar conditions to take notice as well. The AP might be better at not calling races prematurely, but it won't stop the VBM truthers from expressing doubt over leads potentially changing days or weeks after election day.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, it looks like Bordeaux will likely avoid a runoff. Thank god

[Adam Griffin]

Yeah, Bourdeaux's got this.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Y'all think GA-07 will zoom to the left of GA-06 in November? Will Bourdeaux win by double digits?

[Adam Griffin]

Y'all think GA-07 will zoom to the left of GA-06 in November? Will Bourdeaux win by double digits?

Based on sheer demographics alone (even when excluding or factoring in post-'16 white GOP suburban flight), GA-7 is to the left of GA-6 and has been for several years. This was why I actually postulated in one of the 2018 GA GE polls pre-election on here somewhere that GA-7 could vote to the left of GA-6 in 2018; based on population alone (and even VAP), it should be voting more Democratic.

Of course that didn't happen - but the gulf in electoral difference (less than 1.5 points margin-wise) relative to polling wasn't anywhere nearly as large as many forecast, either. There are also many more non-citizen Latinos and Asians in 7 compared to 6 that negate a big chunk of that demographic difference.

Still, Latino and Asian turnout will ultimately be the key. As I pointed out a few days ago, the GA-7 D/R split in requested ballots was only 52/48 in favor of Ds (compared to 56/44 in GA-6) - which I thought was potentially concerning (but also not necessarily unusual, as lower-propensity voters tend to stick with ED voting as opposed to EV/ABM; less confusing for those not accustomed to long-term voting). Apparently, a lot more D voters returned their ballots in GA-7 than R voters relative to requests for us to have basically a 60% D mail electorate in 7, along with similar ratios across other forms of voting. I imagine a disproportionate share of Latino and Asian voters used ED voting - as they will in November - but there must have been an utter collapse in returned white GOP ballots/surge in white & black DEM ballots returned.

Anyway, yeah: could definitely happen, as I thought it was a possibility in 2018. It might even be more likely than not. Even if GA-6 in the aggregate is "anti-gun", I'm not convinced McBath was the best fit for the district. In some alternate universe, McBath and Bourdeaux get swapped between their respective districts and both probably won in 2018 (and in McBath's case, by a small amount more than in reality).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Wow.

https://twitter.com/jmilescoleman/status/1271529941084114944?s=21

[skbl17]

Cobb County Commission chair Mike Boyce (R) calls for Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to "take responsibility" for the state's primary election issues or resign:

“During a recent interview with the media, I said Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger should resign over his handling of Tuesday's primary election,” Boyce wrote. “I have since sent the Secretary of State an email stating if he would own up to his office's responsibility for the problems, and work toward a solution to prevent them from happening again, I would reassess my position.”
“The general election in November will draw even more voters and we can expect similar circumstances,” he said. “As much as I believe the current system is broken, I don’t see it being replaced or repaired in a significant way before November. What I can assure you is that the elections team is taking the necessary measures to ensure that your vote is protected and counted.”

Boyce, a Republican, is seeking reelection and ran in the primary himself. As of Friday, he maintained a healthy lead ahead of two challengers for the party’s nomination, with thousands of ballots still pending.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1271540421303427072

[Adam Griffin]

She's now at 49.81%.

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 905,687 (50.62%)
GOP PPP: 883,411 (49.38%)
TOTAL: 1,789,098

DEM SEN: 989,103 (51.80%)
GOP SEN: 920,379 (48.20%)
TOTAL: 1,909,482

PPP/SEN gap continues to grow - now at 120,384. Democrats slightly lost ground in percentage terms since my update from yesterday.

[GeorgiaModerate]

DEM PPP: 905,687 (50.62%)
GOP PPP: 883,411 (49.38%)
TOTAL: 1,789,098

DEM SEN: 989,103 (51.80%)
GOP SEN: 920,379 (48.20%)
TOTAL: 1,909,482

PPP/SEN gap continues to grow - now at 120,384. Democrats slightly lost ground in percentage terms since my update from yesterday.

Adam, do you have a guesstimate as to how many PPP-only early ballots may still be out?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

She's now at 49.81%.

How many votes are left?

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 905,687 (50.62%)
GOP PPP: 883,411 (49.38%)
TOTAL: 1,789,098

DEM SEN: 989,103 (51.80%)
GOP SEN: 920,379 (48.20%)
TOTAL: 1,909,482

PPP/SEN gap continues to grow - now at 120,384. Democrats slightly lost ground in percentage terms since my update from yesterday.

Adam, do you have a guesstimate as to how many PPP-only early ballots may still be out?

Well, we know the maximum: there were just a tad over 300k ballots cast or requested prior to the cancellation; presumably a decent share (i.e. 20-25%) weren't returned as-is. Given there's a 120k vote gap between PPP and SEN total turnout, it seems that is the floor: in the aggregate, it's unlikely in a state like GA that many would skip the top contest "because it's over" or whatever and then proceed to vote downballot. Given the metro is where most of the population and incomplete returns tend to be, I doubt there are more than 150k outstanding statewide. I expect - given unreturned PPP pre-cancellation ballot likely counts - that the discrepancy between PPP and SEN will start narrowing now, presumably reaching parity (or even a slightly higher PPP total than SEN total) in the coming days. However, this extensive use of mail balloting changes things a lot in conjunction with the irregular nature of this year's primary, so I can't say with absolute confidence.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Haven’t seen it posted here, but Dems took the lead in Fayette County by around 1000 votes

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1271887896824500227

[Bidenworth2020]

Does anyone have a link to the results on the SOS website?

[DrScholl]

Does anyone have a link to the results on the SOS website?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/103613/web.247524/#/summary

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Haven’t seen it posted here, but Dems took the lead in Fayette County by around 1000 votes

#BURBSTOMPIN

[skbl17]

Wasn't sure if I should post this here (because Georgia) or in Political Geography & Demographics (because mapping), but since this is related to a currently-unfolding race in Georgia I decided to post it here.

So I finally took the time to learn QGIS, and felt like making a map. It's not to push any particular agenda, but because I thought it would make a good exercise. Since a lot of attention has been on the U.S. Senate primary, I decided to make a map of the metro Atlanta two-party vote in that race as it stood as of noon today. Of course, that means that by the time you view this there will be more votes counted, but I don't expect the margin to change much.

Now, there are a few caveats, and I'd like to point them out here before getting to the map:

1) With David Perdue being unopposed (hence why the map says "Sen. David Perdue" instead of "Republican candidates",) the main action is, of course, on the Dem side. Georgia is an open primary state and there's no party registration, so anyone can vote in whichever party's primary they'd like. As a result, there are some inflated Dem margins in some of these precincts. Notable examples include:

- the Brookwood High cluster in Gwinnett County. The map makes it appear as if it's completely collapsed and its voters fleeing to Dems, but I suspect some Trump/Perdue-leaning college-educated Republicans did take the plunge and vote in the Dem primary even though they still plan on voting for Perdue and Trump in the fall. I expect the Brookwood cluster will look redder in November, but not by that much - the once solid-red cluster really softened in 2016, Abrams poked quite a few holes in it in 2018, and the cluster is filled with the kind of college-educated voters and soccer moms that are probably willing to give Biden a look this fall. Perdue will outrun Trump a bit here, but I wouldn't count on it looking like it does on this map for Trump/Biden and looking like, say, 2014's GA-SEN map for Perdue/Ossoff.

- The Bethel precinct in Rockdale County. While I do think it's possible the Dems will sweep the rest of the county in November, this precinct north of I-20 and north of downtown Conyers is more rural in character, more conservative, and (in turn) much redder. It's shown as blue here, meaning that there is some Dem strength, but judging by the insanely close margin and the precinct's avoidance of the rapid demographic changes seen in Conyers down to the Henry and Newton county lines, I suspect it will vote for Trump and Perdue by a decent margin in November.

- Atlanta City Council District 8, basically everything in Buckhead west of Peachtree Rd. and north of I-75. This area is filled with wealthy, conservative-leaning, old money types who form the "Republican base" in the City of Atlanta. It didn't even go blue for Linda Miller in the 2018 PSC district 3 runoff, which stands in stark contrast to her near-sweep of Sandy Springs next door. I work in Buckhead, and from personal (commuting) experience I did notice a lot of Teresa Tomlinson signs - right next to a bunch of signs for conservative-leaning judicial and county government candidates.

As a result, I do feel that the two-party margins here are inflated somewhat. However, there aren't many weird outliers (like a 70% GOP precinct voting 60% Dem), so I don't think the margin is that far off, and I feel that view is in line with polling that suggests this will be a tight race. Despite the obvious deeply red/blue counties (Forsyth, Fulton, Cherokee, Clayton, DeKalb, Rockdale) where the primary election basically is the election, counties like Cobb, Henry, Newton, and Gwinnett are still - for the moment at least - not so far gone, so I don't think there is a significant amount of tactical "mess up the other party" voting going on in those counties. In fact, outside of the areas I just mentioned this map looks an awful lot like GA-GOV 2018, only a bit bluer.

2) This map is just for the main counties of metro Atlanta, not the (significantly redder) counties outside of it. There's both Dem and GOP strength outside of here, especially in Georgia's other cities (Dem) and in Hall/Bartow/Paulding/Coweta (GOP) - but there's a lot more GOP strength than Dem strength. It's telling that this nearly 70-30 map of the metro would only translate to a narrow Ossoff win statewide IF this was perfectly replicated in November and IF he avoided a runoff.

There's some oddities in south Fulton, but that's because I had to swap shapefiles: for Cherokee, Forsyth, Cobb, Douglas, DeKalb, Fayette, Henry, Clayton, Rockdale, Newton, and Gwinnett, I just used the shapefiles on the General Assembly website. However, the shapefiles there date to 2018; Fulton County changed around precincts in 2019, particularly in Milton. Luckily, despite all the crap we give Fulton County for its competency at running elections, they were kind enough to put an updated shapefile on their GIS website (unlike Paulding, who added seven new precincts and don't appear to have an updated shapefile freely available). However, there were some precincts with no voters and some precincts with no votes; they're gray on the map. Also, since the Fulton shapefile is different from the shapefiles provided on the General Assembly website, it doesn't perfectly line up with its neighbors - this is most visible in its county line with DeKalb.

Anyway, without further ado, here's the map. Unfortunately, I used non-Atlas colors. Sorry. The deep blue (Atlas red) here translates to a two-party margin for Dems of 40 points or more, while the deep red (Atlas blue) translates to a GOP margin of 40 points or more. Any precinct that appears very light gray literally comes down to a couple of votes.

[DINGO Joe]

I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

[Oryxslayer]

I see that the front runner in the GA-14 R primary is an open QAnon supporter.  It's a 75% Trump district so the winner of the runoff will go to Congress.

The only potential silver lining if she wins is that GA14 is gonna be forced to stay mainly in the NW of the state in redistricting if the state GOP wishes to protect her from an educated exurban primary challenge. Or perhaps they will desire to facilitate that and be forced to waste exurban red voters ousting her.

[Adam Griffin]

DEM PPP: 925,180 (50.77%)
GOP PPP: 897,146 (49.23%)
TOTAL: 1,822,326

DEM SEN: 1,010,150 (51.93%)
GOP SEN: 935,017 (48.07%)
TOTAL: 1,945,167

PPP/SEN gap grew by another 2k: now at 122,841. Maybe a bunch of people did skip the presidential contest, but a 6% undervote seems way too high. There still surely has to be tens of thousands of PPP-only mail ballots to be counted.