Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[QAnonKelly]

A movie and show have already pulled their productions out

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/gop-candidate-for-georgia-governor-pleads-guilty-fraud-charges/XlpeqFq7dGMWWawSYCtXwN/

Michael Williams pleaded guilty to fraud. He’s getting 4 years probation, community service, and a fine.

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp’s going to South Korea for two weeks. Guess he’s gotta go halfway around the world to find anyone who wants to do business with him now.

[QAnonKelly]

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know we’d have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

[QAnonKelly]

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know we’d have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.

Mean the state house in general

[QAnonKelly]

What do you think about Senate District 17? Brian Strickland won 54-46 in 2018. I guess how he'll do is dependent on if Abrams 2018 is the new Democratic floor in a high turnout general election. Not sure how Abrams did in this district.

I live in SD-17. I do think it can flip down the road with demographic changes, but as of now it's a bit too red for 2020. The problem for Dems is that the district takes in the entire southern half of Henry - including the blood-red bits in HD-109 and HD-110 - and the entire eastern half of Newton, a part that has precincts that vote GOP by northern-Forsyth County margins.

Since 2012, the margins for SD-17 have been:

- 2012: Jeffares (R)+25.6
- 2014: Jeffares unopposed
- 2016: Jeffares (R)+19.3
- (2018 special: Strickland (R)+27.6*)
- 2018: Strickland (R)+9.0

I'm ignoring the 2018 special because as with HD-111, HD-117, and HD-119, insanely low turnout can make things very misleading. I'd imagine that a contested 2020 race in SD-17 would look a lot like a redder version of HD-109 from last year: it will look closer than expected but still be a decent win for Strickland (probably a 4-point margin). Abrams probably lost SD-17 by high single digits.

The Dems should certainly try to play for SD-17, which they'll be doing anyway considering the Tossup nature of the (somewhat) overlapping HD-109, but I'll have to characterize the Senate district as Likely R for 2020.

Anyone know what the state house margin was? I know we’d have to win probably 60 % to flip it and the senate is worse so best we can do is keep chipping away

If you're referring to HD-109, it was Kemp+190 votes (+0.7%), Rutledge+828 votes (+3.08%). Definitely a tossup in 2020.

Mean the state house in general

Apparently 54.3-45.6 (R+8.7), at least if Wikipedia is to be believed.

Seems a little high to me but I guess some Indies in the metro ticket split.

[QAnonKelly]

ACLU formally filed the lawsuit against the abortion bill Friday

[QAnonKelly]

Senate Minority Leader Steve Henson, the only white male Democrat in the chamber, said Wednesday that he would not seek re-election to his suburban Atlanta seat in 2020.

Henson survived a primary scare in 2018, when he finished 111 votes ahead of an unknown Democratic challenger, Sabrina McKenzie.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/steve-henson-leader-senate-democrats-won-seek-election-2020/1gbMla3IiH3Flp1dsyQrBL/

He's the only white male D in the senate

[QAnonKelly]

Some more Gwinnett news: the incumbent Republican Clerk of Superior Court, Richard Alexander, has apparently opted not to run for reelection.

With the longtime DA (Danny Porter) considering a party switch to run for reelection as a Democrat, and county commission chair Charlotte Nash not running for reelection, the Gwinnett GOP dumpster fire continues to grow. I would not be shocked if the Dems swept every partisan elected county position - district or countywide - up next year.

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1150620900116635648

At least the Gwinnett GOP is self aware

[QAnonKelly]

Can Abrams still ask for a recount or sue Gov. Kemp, months after the election?

No and she won't, she'll just continue to raise money from gullible idiots by pretending that the race was stolen from her

Uhhh most of the legal action has landed on her side

[QAnonKelly]

Federal judge ruled today that the state has to stop all paperless voting as of January 1st.

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

[QAnonKelly]

So I’m in the district with the special house election and I voted last week. Turns out the lady I voted for isn’t even a dem but rather a never-Trumper running as a dem. Don’t know how to feel about it but I guess I need to learn to do my research better and it’s not like she’s gonna win anyway

HD-71?

Yep

Oh wow. I know people who canvassed for her. They definitely didn't know that about her. LOL.

I don’t think I would have voted if I had known this

[QAnonKelly]

Shenanigans!!!

https://flagpole.com/news/city-dope/2019/09/11/weird-winterville-election-results-raise-questions

Lol I love to imagine there being a bunch of secret republicans in Athens

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams lost by only 55k votes. I’m sure this surge would net that easily if they actually all vote.

[QAnonKelly]

We should be like CO, OR, and WA and vote entirely by mail. It's more convenient, cheaper for the state, would allow people to take their time, and most importantly stop intimidation. The last one is why Kemp and Co. will never let it happen.

[QAnonKelly]

We should be like CO, OR, and WA and vote entirely by mail. It's more convenient, cheaper for the state, would allow people to take their time, and most importantly stop intimidation. The last one is why Kemp and Co. will never let it happen.

Why not the way CA has it set up?

I really just don’t think there should be polling places except for ones where they help people with disabilities. I think they’re a waste of money and time that can be used elsewhere.

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp is going to propose a co-insurance plan in the session in January. Idk why he just doesn't take the medicaid expansion, it makes fiscal sense.  It might even be in his political interest bc he's going to be fighting up hill to win again, he might as well put something big on the board and take away leverage from his inevitable opponent. 

[QAnonKelly]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

[QAnonKelly]

The text of Kemp’s plan came out today. It’s behind a paywall but the gist of it is that it will cost $325m to cover 80k ppl but the expansion would cost ~$200m to cover 500k ppl.

Smh

He’s gonna get killed on this when he runs again and he can’t really afford such an unforced error. He just needs to take the expansion.

[QAnonKelly]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

Now that Cobb and Gwinnett are gone, I wonder how far behind the other remaining R (mostly south side) counties are. I used to work in Fayette County and my grandparents lived there growing up (my grandmother died in 2013) and it’s def going to trend D. PTC being Mecca for old people will slow it down but it’s super educated and getting more diverse with every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2030, there’s no core counties in the area that are R.

[QAnonKelly]

Posting this AJC column for selfish reasons (I lived in Dunwoody until 2016):

"OPINION: Should we now call it the city of Demwoody?"

On that subject, I should point out that the Dems could completely sweep the DeKalb County Commission next year, as Nancy Jester's Dunwoody seat is up for election. There's also a strong possibility of a sweep in Gwinnett County (all remaining R commission seats up in 2020; Abrams won all by double digits) and gaining control in Henry County (currently an even split; chairman June Wood is up next year).

There's an outside chance Dems could gain control of the Cobb County Commission by knocking off Mike Boyce (chair) and Bob Ott (district 2,) but that'll be an uphill battle because district 2 is R-leaning.

Now that Cobb and Gwinnett are gone, I wonder how far behind the other remaining R (mostly south side) counties are. I used to work in Fayette County and my grandparents lived there growing up (my grandmother died in 2013) and it’s def going to trend D. PTC being Mecca for old people will slow it down but it’s super educated and getting more diverse with every year. I wouldn’t be surprised if by 2030, there’s no core counties in the area that are R.

Of the south metro counties the Dems don't currently control, I think the order will be Henry (next year) -> Fayette (mid-2020s) -> Coweta (2030s if at all)

I'd be a bit surprised if the Dems didn't knock off June Wood in Henry County next year, considering that's a countywide race. Since the commission is currently split (thanks to Blake Prince's laughable primary challenge to Rep. Dale Rutledge, leaving his District 4 seat open and allowing Dem Vivian Thomas to win 59-41,) a win for Dems in the county commission chair race would give them control. District 1 is also up, but that will be much harder for Dems because it's red-leaning territory; most of the Dems are holed up in Locust Grove and the southern part of McDonough. The lines will probably be redrawn in 2022, but getting a GOP majority on the commission again would be risky, as it would require drawing 3 GOP seats - a tall order considering that the rapid blue conversion of the county has left Republicans mostly holed up east of GA-155, with only a small handful of Republican-leaning precincts west of there. A gerrymandered map would easily backfire like Gwinnett.

Fayette will be next, but it won't be in play for Dems until 2024 or so. The margin will shrink (Kemp "only" won it by 13, the worst performance for a Republican there in quite a while, and it's possible it could be within 9 or 10 points next year,) but it will stay Republican until the middle of the decade - that's the point where I think the Dems will have consolidated its voting bloc in Fayetteville, along the Clayton/Fulton border, and in central Fayette (the GA-54 corridor between Fayetteville and PTC) enough to make the county a battleground. On the county commission, Dems currently control District 4; eyeballing the map they could make serious plays for Districts 1 and 3 by the middle of the decade, along with the at-large District 5. Of course, I fully expect the lines to be redrawn if it looks like the Fayette County GOP is in danger.

Coweta is much further off; I can easily see it staying Republican until well into the 2030s. The only Dem "base" is in the city of Newnan, and even then they're contained to only a few precincts.

Yeah I think the southern and western parts of Coweta are still too rural

[QAnonKelly]

Yeah Kemp can’t really afford to appoint someone who’s vulnerable to a primary.

[QAnonKelly]

Our illustrious “governor” was supposed to sit for a deposition over a 2014 voting case in Gwinnett by Jan 10. Wonder when we’ll hear something out of it.