Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Sarah Riggs Amico (Lt. Gov. candidate in 2018) is giving serious consideration to running for the Senate seat next year, citing the situation in Georgia and other states regarding recent abortion legislation.

The South is 100% PRO-LIFE.

Well, no.

From a 2014 Pew study (the most recent I can find with state-by-state data):

Legal in all or most cases / Illegal in all or most cases

AL 37/58
AR 38/60
FL 56/39
GA 48/49
KY 36/47
LA 39/57
MS 36/59
NC 49/45
SC 42/52
TN 40/55
VA 55/42
WV 35/58

https://www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/compare/views-about-abortion/by/state/

[GeorgiaModerate]

This may be a first: a losing candidate apologizes for running.

Republican Michael Williams, who finished last place in last year’s gubernatorial primary, said Tuesday he should never have sought higher office and blamed missed “red flags” for mistakes that led to a guilty plea on charges of filing a false report.

The former state senator said he should not have allowed his “public persona to be so drastically changed to something it wasn’t” during a controversial campaign that included a series of ill-fated publicity stunts capped by a “deportation bus tour.”

“I should have found a gubernatorial candidate whom I could support. I should have done what each of you did,” he wrote to supporters. “Instead, I allowed my pride, ego, and bad advice, to persuade me that I had a solid chance in the governor’s race.”

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/deportation-bus-candidate-apologizes-for-running-for-governor/5VcMZUyLBDEsieu53TEttJ/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Shenanigans!!!

https://flagpole.com/news/city-dope/2019/09/11/weird-winterville-election-results-raise-questions

Lol I love to imagine there being a bunch of secret republicans in Athens

...who all conspired to use the same voting machine.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Voter registration surges in Georgia ahead of 2020 elections

More than 352,000 people signed up to vote in the past 11 months, the vast majority of them automatically registering when they obtain a driver’s license, according to data from the secretary of state’s office. The influx has boosted Georgia’s voter rolls to a record high of nearly 7.4 million.
...
About 47% of the new voters who identified their race are minorities and 45% are age 30 or younger, according to an analysis by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution of a list of voters registered from Nov. 6 to Aug. 12. By comparison, 40% of all Georgia voters are minorities and 14% are age 30 or younger.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Forsyth County adding five polling stations in 2020:

https://www.gpbnews.org/post/forsyth-county-adds-polling-places-ahead-2020-election

I think this change is going to move me to a new precinct and polling place, although it doesn't matter much because I usually vote early.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting:

Kemp appoints openly LGBTQ judge to Gwinnett Superior Court

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Georgia poll: AJC/UGA, Jan. 6-15, 1025 RV

NOTE: beginning with this poll, UGA is now weighting by education (previously it was weighting only by race, age, and sex).  As such, this poll result is not comparable to previous AJC/UGA polls.

Trump job approval 51/48 (strongly: 35/42)

2020: Plan to vote for Trump 44, against him 47

Has Trump committed an impeachable offense? Yes 45, No 50

Regarding removal, I don't like the way this question is framed: "At the end of the impeachment process, what do you think should happen to President Trump? Should he be removed from office by the Senate, or should the voters be allowed to decide his fate in the 2020 election?"

Remove Trump 38, voters decide 58

Favorability numbers:

Donald Trump 47/50
Brian Kemp 55/35 (Kemp job approval: 60/31)
David Perdue 52/30 (Perdue job approval: 51/28)
Kelly Loeffler 23/20
Doug Collins 35/18

Joe Biden 35/57
Bernie Sanders 36/58
Elizabeth Warren 31/55
Pete Buttigieg 22/49

I'm glad they've started weighting by education, but these numbers seem a little too R-friendly to me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Son and I just early voted in Forsyth County.  We were outnumbered 10-2 by poll workers (two other voters came in while we were there).  We were the 48th and 49th voters there today.  Context: this is a new early voting location and it's raining out.

I like the new machines with the printed ballot and scanner.  Very easy to use.

And yes, we did wash our hands before and after.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presidential primary postponed to May.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Presidential primary postponed to May.

Do all votes already cast still count? And will they count them early?

"All votes already cast will be counted in May."

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-delay-presidential-primary-due-coronavirus-pandemic/0vJZpHlHdPQdPEda6GtvCP/

[GeorgiaModerate]

25,046 ballots were cast (in-person) or requested (by mail) on 3/14.

As of 3/14, 304,464 ballots have been cast or requested for the March 24th presidential primary. Partisan breakdown of ballot requests is:

210876   69.26% Democratic
91042      29.90% Republican
1598        0.53% Non-Partisan
948          0.31% Unknown

81.6% of ballots cast or requested on 3/14 were Democratic; 18.1% were Republican.

Is the data for each county available?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia is considering sending absentee ballots to all older voters for the May primary:

Jordan Fuchs, deputy secretary of state, said Sunday that – logistically and financially – the state could not afford to shift to a system in which all balloting is conducted by mail, as some have called for. But it could afford to mail ballot applications to those over 65 or even 60 – whichever is recommended by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the state Department of Public Health.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/the-jolt-keep-them-out-long-lines-may-primary-ballots-may-mailed-older-voters/6ge4dTrJ33XkkkZyflmqVO/

[GeorgiaModerate]

A second Georgia state senator has tested positive for the disease caused by coronavirus and several other legislators and staffers said they had symptoms of the illness, days after the state’s entire legislative branch was urged to go into self-quarantine because of possible exposure.

https://www.ajc.com/blog/politics/more-coronavirus-cases-reported-georgia-senate/IhLqmvw0BRJlCZkpLaJ9XN/

Brandon Beach should be expelled for his negligence.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1241881549513134082

I believe this brings the total to four state senators who have tested positive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia to mail absentee ballot request forms to all voters for May primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Georgia primary delayed (again) to June 9.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The State Election Board voted unanimously Wednesday to allow Georgia voters to turn in their absentee ballots at drop boxes, an option that avoids human contact during the coronavirus pandemic.

Drop boxes can be set up on government property before Georgia’s primary on June 9. Voters will be able to submit their absentee ballots without having to pay for postage or hand them directly to county election workers.

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ballot-drop-boxes-approved-for-georgia-voters-during-coronavirus/4Bir3Ymx1zL0ZOGsXMazEO/

This is a nice development and I applaud the board for implementing it.  Using a drop box will also ensure that an absentee ballot isn't lost or delayed in the mail.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Among many interesting questions on the virus response in a new AJC/UGA poll:

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of Gov. Brian Kemp’s plans to reopen Georgia businesses in the next few days?

Strongly disapprove — 43%

Somewhat disapprove — 19%

Neutral — 14%

Somewhat approve — 14%

Strongly approve — 10%

[GeorgiaModerate]

Other counties in the Metro:

Fulton 78-20
DeKalb 86-12
Cobb 54-43
Clayton 86-12
Douglas 68-30
Henry 63-35
Newton 57-42
Rockdale 75-24
Fayette 50-48 (!!)

What about Forsyth County?

67-31

My county.  I'll be bold and predict Trump wins it by less than 2:1 in November.   It was almost 3:1 in 2016 (71.7-24.1).

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fulton County polls will remain open until 9pm per order of the county Superior Court.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Something I haven't seen mentioned thus far: the Democratic undervote between presidential and senatorial contests. Despite the presidential contest being at the top of the ballot, roughly 7% of Georgia Democrats skipped the presidential contest but cast votes in the Senate contest. This is...substantial. If it were a general election, I'd be screaming voter fraud. Amico sued in 2018 over roughly half this discrepancy - which was an unprecedented discrepancy then.

So here is potentially a big part of this discrepancy I discovered while going over the midnight happenings in my own county just now. Apparently the mail ballots that were cast for the presidential primary prior to the cancellation/move/merger of the pres & state primaries have not been counted (at least in Whitfield!) yet; they'll be counted today. If that is a common occurrence throughout the state, then it could explain why the presidential primary raw turnout is 7% lower than the Senate turnout; when people who voted by mail in Feb/Mar cast their ballots, it was just for President. If those ballots haven't been counted/reconciled, then of course the presidential totals would be lower. However, I don't know if this is something happening on a grand scale throughout the state or just something decided in my own county.

Why didn’t they just void all the March ballots and just start it clean?

I voted in the Presidential primary on the first day of early voting in March, before postponement.  Why should my legitimate early vote be canceled?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1271540421303427072

[GeorgiaModerate]

DEM PPP: 905,687 (50.62%)
GOP PPP: 883,411 (49.38%)
TOTAL: 1,789,098

DEM SEN: 989,103 (51.80%)
GOP SEN: 920,379 (48.20%)
TOTAL: 1,909,482

PPP/SEN gap continues to grow - now at 120,384. Democrats slightly lost ground in percentage terms since my update from yesterday.

Adam, do you have a guesstimate as to how many PPP-only early ballots may still be out?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1271887896824500227

[GeorgiaModerate]

Blue Fayette is nice. Now can I have blue Forsyth by the end of the decade?

I saw a thread by BRTD which showed Forsyth county as the worst county in this country a few months ago from 12 years ago. Wow, have things have changed from 2008.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=88051.msg1809013#msg1809013

I've lived in Forsyth for over 15 years.  It's changed an amazing amount in that time.