Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 18, 2020, 01:25:34 pm
News: 2020 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Nixon did well in NYC in 1960
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Nixon did well in NYC in 1960  (Read 2870 times)
buritobr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,253


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 21, 2019, 09:02:51 pm »

Here we can find the results of the presidential elections in New York City
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politics_of_New_York_City

For me, the biggest surprise was the result of 1960
Kennedy 62.62%     Nixon 37.04%
Not so distant to the national result. In 1968 and 1972, Nixon's home state was New York, but in 1960, Nixon's home state was California.

The elections of 1932 and 1936 in NYC had results closer to the results of recent elections
Logged
mathstatman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,910
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 10:20:44 am »

In 1960, there were still many moderate and liberal Republicans, and it was not yet clear that the Democrats would be the party of the Civil Rights movement. In fact, the 1960 GOP platform boasted, probably correctly, that "we have made more progress on Civil Rights in the last eight years than in the previous eighty".

The Irish-Catholic Kennedy was an attractive candidate, too-- but moderate and liberal Republicans saw no reason to jump ship in 1960: Nixon received

36% in Manhattan, NY
39.6% in MA
48.2% in Brookline, MA
48.7% in Newton, MA
60% in Amherst, MA

whereas Goldwater in 1964 only received

19.2% in Manhattan, MY
23.4% in MA
18.9% in Brookline, MA
22.4% in Newton, MA
29.6% in Amherst, MA

I'm sure Westchester County, NY showed a similar swing away from the GOP.

Nixon recovered somewhat in 1968, but Humphrey still outperformed Kennedy in all the above areas, usually by a wide margin.
Logged
TDAS04
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,610
Nepal


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 10:57:20 am »

I see McGovern outperformed JFK in Manhattan. 
Logged
morgankingsley
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,613
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2019, 02:25:58 pm »

Actually in 72 he changed it back to California I think
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2019, 03:54:41 pm »

I had heard that in 1960, Nixon had actually carried (or came very close in) what is now Carolyn Maloney’s congressional district on Manhattan’s lower east side.  In 1972, this district went 58% for McGovern.
Logged
RoboWop
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,750
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2019, 09:21:53 pm »

I had heard that in 1960, Nixon had actually carried (or came very close in) what is now Carolyn Maloney’s congressional district on Manhattan’s lower east side.  In 1972, this district went 58% for McGovern.

Is this under current boundaries or under the boundaries in one of the two elections or in both respective elections? Each has a very different meaning.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to learn Nixon won the UES in 1960, though.
Logged
Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,083
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2019, 10:58:03 pm »
« Edited: May 26, 2019, 11:02:12 pm by KYWildman »

Not so distant from the national result?? Kennedy only won nationally by a fraction of a percentage point, 49.72 to 49.55. That means NYC was 13 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation that year. It was also a 12 point Democratic shift from 1956, when Stevenson won the city with only 51% of the vote. It was in fact the biggest Democratic win in NYC since FDR’s historic national landslide in 1936. And Nixon’s losses in 1968 (actually the margin was about the same in 1968, but Kennedy got a larger share of the vote than Humphrey) and 1972 were both closer than 1960, especially 1972 when he only lost by 3 points.

If you look at the whole chart, you’ll see that NYC has been more Democratic than the nation throughout most of its history. The only thing that has changed is HOW MUCH more Democratic it is. And that’s a result of both increased party polarization and a change in the parties themselves. There aren’t many liberal Republicans left anymore, and New York is a liberal city.
Logged
morgankingsley
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,613
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2019, 01:16:34 am »

Not so distant from the national result?? Kennedy only won nationally by a fraction of a percentage point, 49.72 to 49.55. That means NYC was 13 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation that year. It was also a 12 point Democratic shift from 1956, when Stevenson won the city with only 51% of the vote. It was in fact the biggest Democratic win in NYC since FDR’s historic national landslide in 1936. And Nixon’s losses in 1968 (actually the margin was about the same in 1968, but Kennedy got a larger share of the vote than Humphrey) and 1972 were both closer than 1960, especially 1972 when he only lost by 3 points.

If you look at the whole chart, you’ll see that NYC has been more Democratic than the nation throughout most of its history. The only thing that has changed is HOW MUCH more Democratic it is. And that’s a result of both increased party polarization and a change in the parties themselves. There aren’t many liberal Republicans left anymore, and New York is a liberal city.

In fact, there is some debate on if Kennedy even won the popular vote, and that Nixon actually did
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2019, 12:45:08 pm »

I had heard that in 1960, Nixon had actually carried (or came very close in) what is now Carolyn Maloney’s congressional district on Manhattan’s lower east side.  In 1972, this district went 58% for McGovern.

Is this under current boundaries or under the boundaries in one of the two elections or in both respective elections? Each has a very different meaning.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to learn Nixon won the UES in 1960, though.

This was under the boundaries for both respective elections.
Logged
RoboWop
AMB1996
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,750
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2019, 01:46:58 pm »

I had heard that in 1960, Nixon had actually carried (or came very close in) what is now Carolyn Maloney’s congressional district on Manhattan’s lower east side.  In 1972, this district went 58% for McGovern.

Is this under current boundaries or under the boundaries in one of the two elections or in both respective elections? Each has a very different meaning.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to learn Nixon won the UES in 1960, though.

This was under the boundaries for both respective elections.

That requires a follow-up then: Are you talking about the then–East Side district (covering roughly the same ground as Maloney's) or the then–12th district of New York (having the same number as Maloney's)?

The 12th actually had an incumbent Republican in 1960 and was centered on Park Slope. But in 1972 that was Shirley Chisholm's district, and she got 88% of the vote. I would actually be shocked to hear that Nixon got 42% in that district, which was Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights.
Logged
Andy Beshear’s Campaign Manager
KYWildman
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,083
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2019, 02:16:51 pm »
« Edited: May 27, 2019, 02:26:55 pm by KYWildman »

Not so distant from the national result?? Kennedy only won nationally by a fraction of a percentage point, 49.72 to 49.55. That means NYC was 13 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation that year. It was also a 12 point Democratic shift from 1956, when Stevenson won the city with only 51% of the vote. It was in fact the biggest Democratic win in NYC since FDR’s historic national landslide in 1936. And Nixon’s losses in 1968 (actually the margin was about the same in 1968, but Kennedy got a larger share of the vote than Humphrey) and 1972 were both closer than 1960, especially 1972 when he only lost by 3 points.

If you look at the whole chart, you’ll see that NYC has been more Democratic than the nation throughout most of its history. The only thing that has changed is HOW MUCH more Democratic it is. And that’s a result of both increased party polarization and a change in the parties themselves. There aren’t many liberal Republicans left anymore, and New York is a liberal city.

In fact, there is some debate on if Kennedy even won the popular vote, and that Nixon actually did

That’s been largely debunked. It mostly comes down to “Well LBJ and Mayor Daley were kind of shady guys, right? And Texas and Illinois, their states, were close. Therefore it must have been rigged.” But there’s never been any real hard evidence that was the case.

One of the investigative reporters looking into claims of voter fraud in Illinois even found that there were cases of pro-Tricky Dick (a REALLY shady guy) voter fraud in Southern Illinois, even if there was also pro-JFK fraud in Chicago. And there’s never been any actual evidence of fraud in Texas, which would have been enough for JFK to win even without Illinois. Let alone enough to flip the state, which wasn’t nearly as close as Illinois.

Here’s a good article about the whole controversy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/heres-a-voter-fraud-myth-richard-daley-stole-illinois-for-john-kennedy-in-the-1960-election/

You might say that you were only talking about the popular vote, so even if Nixon did lose the electoral college he might have won the popular vote. But he lost by over 100,000 votes, and the number of disputed votes is less than that.
Logged
morgankingsley
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,613
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 27, 2019, 02:47:01 pm »

Not so distant from the national result?? Kennedy only won nationally by a fraction of a percentage point, 49.72 to 49.55. That means NYC was 13 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation that year. It was also a 12 point Democratic shift from 1956, when Stevenson won the city with only 51% of the vote. It was in fact the biggest Democratic win in NYC since FDR’s historic national landslide in 1936. And Nixon’s losses in 1968 (actually the margin was about the same in 1968, but Kennedy got a larger share of the vote than Humphrey) and 1972 were both closer than 1960, especially 1972 when he only lost by 3 points.

If you look at the whole chart, you’ll see that NYC has been more Democratic than the nation throughout most of its history. The only thing that has changed is HOW MUCH more Democratic it is. And that’s a result of both increased party polarization and a change in the parties themselves. There aren’t many liberal Republicans left anymore, and New York is a liberal city.

In fact, there is some debate on if Kennedy even won the popular vote, and that Nixon actually did

That’s been largely debunked. It mostly comes down to “Well LBJ and Mayor Daley were kind of shady guys, right? And Texas and Illinois, their states, were close. Therefore it must have been rigged.” But there’s never been any real hard evidence that was the case.

One of the investigative reporters looking into claims of voter fraud in Illinois even found that there were cases of pro-Tricky Dick (a REALLY shady guy) voter fraud in Southern Illinois, even if there was also pro-JFK fraud in Chicago. And there’s never been any actual evidence of fraud in Texas, which would have been enough for JFK to win even without Illinois. Let alone enough to flip the state, which wasn’t nearly as close as Illinois.

Here’s a good article about the whole controversy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/heres-a-voter-fraud-myth-richard-daley-stole-illinois-for-john-kennedy-in-the-1960-election/

You might say that you were only talking about the popular vote, so even if Nixon did lose the electoral college he might have won the popular vote. But he lost by over 100,000 votes, and the number of disputed votes is less than that.

I was talking about the Alabama voting delegates and how some split those up, not Illinois or Texas. I'm not saying it is true, I'm just saying there is debate
Logged
Mr.Phips
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,873


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2019, 08:30:50 pm »

I had heard that in 1960, Nixon had actually carried (or came very close in) what is now Carolyn Maloney’s congressional district on Manhattan’s lower east side.  In 1972, this district went 58% for McGovern.

Is this under current boundaries or under the boundaries in one of the two elections or in both respective elections? Each has a very different meaning.

Wouldn't be surprised at all to learn Nixon won the UES in 1960, though.

This was under the boundaries for both respective elections.

That requires a follow-up then: Are you talking about the then–East Side district (covering roughly the same ground as Maloney's) or the then–12th district of New York (having the same number as Maloney's)?

The 12th actually had an incumbent Republican in 1960 and was centered on Park Slope. But in 1972 that was Shirley Chisholm's district, and she got 88% of the vote. I would actually be shocked to hear that Nixon got 42% in that district, which was Bed-Stuy and Crown Heights.

I’m talking about the Upper East side district, not the literal 12th district.
Logged
The Mikado
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,137


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2019, 11:03:15 pm »

Not so distant from the national result?? Kennedy only won nationally by a fraction of a percentage point, 49.72 to 49.55. That means NYC was 13 points more Democratic than the rest of the nation that year. It was also a 12 point Democratic shift from 1956, when Stevenson won the city with only 51% of the vote. It was in fact the biggest Democratic win in NYC since FDR’s historic national landslide in 1936. And Nixon’s losses in 1968 (actually the margin was about the same in 1968, but Kennedy got a larger share of the vote than Humphrey) and 1972 were both closer than 1960, especially 1972 when he only lost by 3 points.

If you look at the whole chart, you’ll see that NYC has been more Democratic than the nation throughout most of its history. The only thing that has changed is HOW MUCH more Democratic it is. And that’s a result of both increased party polarization and a change in the parties themselves. There aren’t many liberal Republicans left anymore, and New York is a liberal city.

In fact, there is some debate on if Kennedy even won the popular vote, and that Nixon actually did

That’s been largely debunked. It mostly comes down to “Well LBJ and Mayor Daley were kind of shady guys, right? And Texas and Illinois, their states, were close. Therefore it must have been rigged.” But there’s never been any real hard evidence that was the case.

One of the investigative reporters looking into claims of voter fraud in Illinois even found that there were cases of pro-Tricky Dick (a REALLY shady guy) voter fraud in Southern Illinois, even if there was also pro-JFK fraud in Chicago. And there’s never been any actual evidence of fraud in Texas, which would have been enough for JFK to win even without Illinois. Let alone enough to flip the state, which wasn’t nearly as close as Illinois.

Here’s a good article about the whole controversy:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/heres-a-voter-fraud-myth-richard-daley-stole-illinois-for-john-kennedy-in-the-1960-election/

You might say that you were only talking about the popular vote, so even if Nixon did lose the electoral college he might have won the popular vote. But he lost by over 100,000 votes, and the number of disputed votes is less than that.

He's talking about how we assign Alabama's popular vote. Because a number of Alabama's Democratic electors were pledged to the rogue elector slate going into the election (5 out of 11) and people knew that, the argument goes that Kennedy should be given credit for ~6/11ths of Alabama's votes for him, not all of them.

EDIT:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama

This is interesting, for further reading.
Logged
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,865
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.90, S: -7.65

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2019, 04:13:35 am »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,718


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 23, 2019, 10:52:39 am »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.
Logged
morgankingsley
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,613
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 23, 2019, 10:14:25 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe
Logged
President Johnson
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,719
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2019, 02:06:40 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe

Yes, Bubba won at least one county in every state.
Logged
Wazza
Wazza1901
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,591
Australia


Political Matrix
E: 2.19, S: 1.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2019, 04:17:44 am »

Its not that surprising and wasn't that much of a change. NYC was D+26 in 60, D+27 in 68, and D+33 in 76. Makes sense when you consider that the white population of NYC rapidly declined during that period, going from 85% white in 60, 77% white in 70 and 61% white in 80, and that includes "white hispanics". The NHW population fell from 63% in 1970 to 52% in 1980 (unfortunately theres no data for non-hispanics whites in 1960).
Logged
Tintrlvr
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,000
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 05, 2019, 03:25:24 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe

Yes, Bubba won at least one county in every state.

I thought it would have been 2000 but apparently Gore didn't win any counties in Utah or Wyoming (not helped by Nader but Bush did get over 50% in Summit and Teton Counties, which would be shocking today).
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,718


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 05, 2019, 04:07:55 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe

Yes, Bubba won at least one county in every state.

I thought it would have been 2000 but apparently Gore didn't win any counties in Utah or Wyoming (not helped by Nader but Bush did get over 50% in Summit and Teton Counties, which would be shocking today).
He also didn't win any counties in Nebraska.
Logged
lfromnj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,359


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 08, 2019, 12:14:46 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe

Yes, Bubba won at least one county in every state.

I thought it would have been 2000 but apparently Gore didn't win any counties in Utah or Wyoming (not helped by Nader but Bush did get over 50% in Summit and Teton Counties, which would be shocking today).
He also didn't win any counties in Nebraska.

Interestingly there are 2 clinton romney counties and only 1 obama trump county in NE.
Logged
Landslide Warren
Politician
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,865
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.00

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 08, 2019, 01:53:59 pm »

1960 was one of the few (and one of the last) elections where both candidates did "well" just about everywhere. Relatively speaking.

Yeah, it was also the last election where a Democrat won at least one county in every state.

1996 I believe

Yes, Bubba won at least one county in every state.

I thought it would have been 2000 but apparently Gore didn't win any counties in Utah or Wyoming (not helped by Nader but Bush did get over 50% in Summit and Teton Counties, which would be shocking today).
He also didn't win any counties in Nebraska.

Interestingly there are 2 clinton romney counties and only 1 obama trump county in NE.
Lancaster voted Romney +0.1 and Clinton +0.1.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC