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  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Silurian)
  Predict when the Twin Cities suburbs go 60% DFL and Greater MN goes 60% GOP
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Author Topic: Predict when the Twin Cities suburbs go 60% DFL and Greater MN goes 60% GOP  (Read 355 times)
LiberalDem19
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« on: May 21, 2019, 10:37:40 pm »

2018 Walz vs. Johnson:

Suburbs: Walz 54-42
Greater MN: Johnson 52-45


I'm thinking the DFL hits 60% in 2028 in the suburbs with growth and increased diversity, although if the GOP moderates post-2020 election, that could change.
I'm not sure about the GOP in Greater MN because of Rochester/Mankato growth. Duluth proper used to be losing population seems to have stopped the bleeding. DFLers seem to be leaving the Iron Range in droves. Gonna say 2030
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 06:11:52 pm »

It won't get that polarized. Eventually the republicans are going to moderate, or the democrats are going to either get AOC-ized or become more populistic.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2019, 07:21:10 pm »

Taking just two party vote share, and defining 'Metro' as Hennepin, Ramsey, Dakota, Washington, Anoka, Carver, and Scott counties.

Metro

Clinton: 910,214 (60.7%)
Trump: 589,299 (39.3%)

Total: 1,499,513

Outstate

Trump: 733,933 (61.6%)
Clinton: 457,611 (38.4%)

Total: 1,191,544

Greater Minnesota already is going about 60% Republican on average. Whether the suburbs go 60% Dem? doubtful, even though the urban and suburban area combined is already at 60%.
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Lakigigar
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2019, 01:15:40 pm »

It already sort of is, but I expect a large growth for the GOP in Greater MN cancelling out the effect the more Democratic metro areas.
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