2019 European Parliament Elections

[Riegel2222]

Date:

23–26 May 2019



Notes:

Following the exit of the United Kingdom from the EU, the number of seats will be reduced from 751 to 705, 46 of the 73 lost seats are redistributed to the remaining member states.



Parties/Alliances:

EPP - European People's Party
center-right pro-Europe conservatives and christian democrats, such as the Christian Democratic Union in Germany

S&D - Socialists and Democrats
alliance of social democratic parties in Europe, mainly pro-Europe and center-left

ECR - European Conservatives and Reformists
eurosceptic conservative alliance, formerly including the Conservative Party in the UK

ALDE - Alliance of Liberals and Democrats
pro-Europe liberals, stand for more freedom of trade and enterprise, but also take liberal stances on social issues

Greens–EFA - Greens / European Free Alliance
alliance of Greens and regionalists/separatists, positioned environmentalist, pro-Europe and socially liberal

GUE-NGL - European United Left – Nordic Green Left
made up by left-wing socialists, communists and eurosceptic Greens, notable examples are Syriza in Greece and The Left in Germany

EFDD - Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy
consisting of eurosceptics, populists, libertarians and anti-establishment parties, such as formerly included UKIP and the 5 Star Movement in Italy

ENF - Europe of Nations and Freedom
alliance of right-wing nationalists, anti-immigration parties and hard eurosceptics, such as Marine Le-Pen's Rassemblement National

NI - Non-Inscripts
European parties without an alliance, include extremists and centrist independents

[Tender Branson]

I predict something like:

35% ÖVP-EPP (+8%)
23% SPÖ-S&D (-1%)
21% FPÖ-ENF (+1%)
10% NEOS-ALDE (+2%)
  7% Greens-EFA (-8%)
  3% Now-NI (+3%)
  1% Others (-5%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

19 seats (+1): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 5 FPÖ (+1), 2 NEOS (+1), 1 Greens (-2)

[Mike88]

As of now, for Portugal i predict the following:

36.1% PS-S&D (+4.6), 9 seats (+1)
25.7% PSD-EPP, 7 (+1)
  8.3% BE-GUE-NGL (+3.7), 2 (+1)
  8.2% CDS-EPP, 2 (+1)
  7.1% CDU-GUE-NGL, 1 (-2)
  3.4% Alliance-NI, (new), 0
  2.3% PAN-NI (+0.6), 0
  4.0% Other parties (-3.2)
  4.9% Invalid (-2.5)

32.0% Turnout (-1.7)

Seats and vote share by EP parties: S&D - 36.1%, 9 seats (+1); EPP - 33.9%, 9 seats (+2); GUE-NGL - 15.4%, 3 seats (-1)

[Riegel2222]

I predict something like:

35% ÖVP-EPP (+8%)
23% SPÖ-S&D (-1%)
21% FPÖ-ENF (+1%)
10% NEOS-ALDE (+2%)
  7% Greens-EFA (-8%)
  3% Now-NI (+3%)
  1% Others (-5%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

19 seats (+1): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 5 FPÖ (+1), 2 NEOS (+1), 1 Greens (-2)

ÖVP is polling much lower in the EU-Elections than in the national elections plus the EU-Exit Party, which grabbed 2.8% in 2014, is running again and "others" are polling very high (at around 6%).

My prediction is something like


28.0% ÖVP-EPP (+1.0%)
25.6% SPÖ-S&D (-1.5%)
23.5% FPÖ-ENF (+3.8%)
9.8% NEOS-ALDE (+1.7%)
  7.2% Greens-EFA (-7.3%)
  3.4% EU-Exit Party-NI (+0.6%)
  1.6% Now-NI (+1.6%)
  0.9% Others (-2.9%)

Turnout: 57.2%

[Former President tack50]

My first (probably bad) guess:

Spain (59 seats, 5 more than in 2014)

PSOE-S&D: 22% (14 seats, nc)
PP-EPP: 19.4% (12 seats, -4)
Cs-ALDE: 18.4% (11 seats, +9)
UP-GUE/NGL: 15% (9 seats, -3)
Vox-ECR: 14% (9 seats, +9)

ERC/Bildu/BNG coalition ("The Peoples decide")-G/EFA: 4% (2 seats, -1)
PNV/CC/CxG coalition ("European Coalition")-ALDE: 1.6% (1 seat, nc*)
Compromís/ChA/other allies coalition ("European Spring")-G/EFA: 1.6% (1 seat, nc)
PDECat-ALDE: 1% (0 seats, -2[++])

Miscellaneous others/blank/spoilt ballots: 3%

Turnout: 65% (only because it's the same day as the local elections, otherwise it'd be in the low 40s)

By EU group:

ALDE: 13
S&D: 12
EPP: 11
GUE/NGL: 9-10 (depending on whether Bildu stays here or moves back to G/EFA)
ECR: 9
G/EFA: 2-3 (depending on whether Bildu stays there or moves back to G/EFA)
EFDD: 0
ENF: 0

This is obviously subject to change depending on how the nationalists end up looking and how general election polls vary from here to May

*: Compared to PNV in 2014
++: Compared to CiU in 2014

[Tender Branson]

I predict something like:

35% ÖVP-EPP (+8%)
23% SPÖ-S&D (-1%)
21% FPÖ-ENF (+1%)
10% NEOS-ALDE (+2%)
  7% Greens-EFA (-8%)
  3% Now-NI (+3%)
  1% Others (-5%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

19 seats (+1): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 5 FPÖ (+1), 2 NEOS (+1), 1 Greens (-2)

ÖVP is polling much lower in the EU-Elections than in the national elections plus the EU-Exit Party, which grabbed 2.8% in 2014, is running again and "others" are polling very high (at around 6%).

My prediction is something like

28.0% ÖVP-EPP (+1.0%)
25.6% SPÖ-S&D (-1.5%)
23.5% FPÖ-ENF (+3.8%)
9.8% NEOS-ALDE (+1.7%)
  7.2% Greens-EFA (-7.3%)
  3.4% EU-Exit Party-NI (+0.6%)
  1.6% Now-NI (+1.6%)
  0.9% Others (-2.9%)

Turnout: 57.2%

That's a very strange prediction for several reasons:

The "others" that are currently polling at 6% (all EU polls conducted so far are by a single pollster !) will not materialize on election day IMO.

I think those are former Green voters from 2014, who are now unwilling to declare their leanings. They will likely not vote Green again, so either NEOS or ÖVP or stay home (that's why I think the ÖVP is significantly underpolled right now for the EU elections.) The ÖVP usually does better in EU elections than in national elections.

EU-STOP (well, their strange, excentric fundie of a party leader) wants to run again, yes. But first they have to collect 2.600 signatures again and then hope for another miracle like in 2014, when they polled 0.5% and ended up with almost 3%. So, a big "if" here ...

Your other results seem to be OK, but I think the SPÖ will do quite badly this year.

[Riegel2222]

That's a very strange prediction for several reasons:

The "others" that are currently polling at 6% (all EU polls conducted so far are by a single pollster !) will not materialize on election day IMO.

I think those are former Green voters from 2014, who are now unwilling to declare their leanings. They will likely not vote Green again, so either NEOS or ÖVP or stay home (that's why I think the ÖVP is significantly underpolled right now for the EU elections.) The ÖVP usually does better in EU elections than in national elections.

EU-STOP (well, their strange, excentric fundie of a party leader) wants to run again, yes. But first they have to collect 2.600 signatures again and then hope for another miracle like in 2014, when they polled 0.5% and ended up with almost 3%. So, a big "if" here ...

Your other results seem to be OK, but I think the SPÖ will do quite badly this year.

SPÖ will pull in a large portion of the 2014 Green voters considering their more "progressive" party line since they are running as an opposition to the current ÖVP-FPÖ coalition, which is not as popular among Green voters.

ÖVP are not running a candidate as charismatic and, more importantly, not as national-conservative as Sebastian Kurz. He has criticized Kurz for going contrary to the direction of the EU and putting national interests in first place.

FPÖ might be able to profit off that fact somewhat, however, the low voter turnout will disadvantage parties whose voters have low faith in politics or come from a lower social class.

Smaller parties like EU-STOP tend to not pop up in the race until a short time before the election, largely because they lack the budget for long-term campaigning and media coverage, plus they are benefiting from the flip flops and inconsistencies in European Parliament decisions by the FPÖ, such as opposing the ban on Glyphosate and abstaining from the Article 13 vote.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Flanders
N-VA/ECR? 25,9% (-0,8%)
Open VLD / ALDE 18,8% (-1,6%)
CD&V/EPP 16,2% (-3,7%)
Greens-EFA 15,6% (+5,0%)
VB/ENF 12,8% (+6,1%)
s.pa/S&D 8,3% (-4,8%)
PVDA-GUE/NGL 3,7% (+1,3%)

Brussels + Wallonia
PS/S&D 24,1% (-5,1%)
Ecolo/EFA - 22,3% (+10,6%)
MR/ALDE 18,8% (-8,3%)
PTB-GUE/NGL 15,5% (+10,1%)
PP/EFDD/ENF? 7,2% (+1,2%)
cDH/EPP 6,8% (-4,6%)

1 seat for CSP/EPP from German-speaking community

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Flanders
N-VA/ECR? 25,9% (-0,8%)
Open VLD / ALDE 18,8% (-1,6%)
CD&V/EPP 16,2% (-3,7%)
Greens-EFA 15,6% (+5,0%)
VB/ENF 12,8% (+6,1%)
s.pa/S&D 8,3% (-4,8%)
PVDA-GUE/NGL 3,7% (+1,3%)

Brussels + Wallonia
PS/S&D 24,1% (-5,1%)
Ecolo/EFA - 22,3% (+10,6%)
MR/ALDE 18,8% (-8,3%)
PTB-GUE/NGL 15,5% (+10,1%)
PP/EFDD/ENF? 7,2% (+1,2%)
cDH/EPP 6,8% (-4,6%)

1 seat for CSP/EPP from German-speaking community

I probably overestimated PVDA-PTB a bit in Brussels + Wallonia. Greens have momentum, and i think overestimated cDH's decline a bit. Polls seem to underestimate them a lot.

Ecolo/EFA - 24,8% (+13,1%)
PS/S&D 24,6% (-4,6%)
MR/ALDE 18,2% (-8,9%)
PTB-GUE/NGL 10,8% (+5,4%)
cDH/EPP 9,4% (-2,0%)
PP/EFDD/ENF? 7,4% (+1,4%)

Probably something like this

[RedPrometheus]

Overall it seems inevitable that the EPP-S&D "grand coalition" will clearly loose it's majority - that could make things interesting.

[Tender Branson]

Overall it seems inevitable that the EPP-S&D "grand coalition" will clearly loose it's majority - that could make things interesting.

Yes, but will also be interesting if and which of the far-right parties will join a common group.

If they remain fractured, their gains won't mean much.

[Former President tack50]

Overall it seems inevitable that the EPP-S&D "grand coalition" will clearly loose it's majority - that could make things interesting.

Worth noting that in practice, the grand coalition is actually EPP-ALDE-S&D and not just EPP-S&D.

Losing their majority will be something symbolic but not mean much in practice.

Now, the day that there's a GUE/NGL+Right wing Euroskeptics negative majority, that will be the big day for the EU (in a bad way in my opinion). Even EPP-ALDE-S&D losing their majority would already be a huge blow (but the Greens could join I imagine)

[Tender Branson]

My updated projection:

34% ÖVP-EPP (+7%)
25% SPÖ-S&D (+1%)
21% FPÖ-ENF (+1%)
  9% Greens-EFA (-6%)
  9% NEOS-ALDE (+1%)
  1% Now-EFA (+1%)
  1% KPÖ-GUE/NGL (+1%)
  0% Others (-6%)

Turnout: ~50% (+5%)

19 seats (+1): 7 ÖVP (+2), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 5 FPÖ (+1), 1 NEOS (n.c.), 1 Greens (-2)

[brucejoel99]

As for the UK now taking part, I predict the following (even though it's early days indeed lol):

23.0% Labour-S&D (-1.4%)
17.4% Brexit-EFDD (+17.4%)
15.4% Conservative-ECR (-7.7%)
13.5% UKIP-EAPN (-14%)
8.2% Change UK (+8.2%)
7.7% Greens-EFA (-0.2%)
7.7% Lib Dems-ALDE (+1.1%)
5.1% SNP-EFA (+1.1%)
0.9% Plaid Cymru-EFA (+1.1%)
1.1% Others (-4.4%)

Turnout: 39.4% (+3.8%)

73 seats: 24 Labour (+5), 14 Conservatives (-4), 13 Brexit (+4), 11 UKIP (+4), 4 SNP (+2), 2 Greens (-1), 1 Change UK (+1), 1 Lib Dems (n.c.), 1 DUP (n.c.), 1 SF (n.c.), 1 UUP (n.c.)

[Mike88]

Updated projection for Portugal:

32.6% PS-S&D (+1.1), 8 seats (nc)
30.0% PSD-EPP, 8 (+2)
  9.1% CDU-GUE-NGL (-3.6), 2 (-1)
  7.7% BE-GUE-NGL (+3.1), 2 (+1)
  7.0% CDS-EPP, 1 (nc)
  3.0% PAN-EGP (+1.3), 0 (nc)
  1.6% Alliance (new), 0 (new)
  1.4% ENOUGH! (new), 0 (new)
  1.0% IL-ALDE (new), 0 (new)
  0.6% PDR-ALDE, 0 (-1)
  0.4% LIVRE-DiEM25 (-1.7), 0 (nc)
  2.1% Others, 0 (nc)
  3.5% Blank/Invalid (-3.5)
  
33.0% Turnout (-0.7)

Seats and vote share by EP parties: EPP - 37.0%, 9 seats (+2); S&D - 32.6%, 8 seats (nc); GUE-NGL - 16.8%, 4 seats (nc); EGP - 3.0%, 0 seats (nc); ALDE - 1.6%, 0 seats (-1)

[thumb21]

Britain prediction

Brexit 33%
Labour 23%
LibDem 15%
Conservative 12%
Green 8%
SNP 3%
UKIP 2%
ChangeUK 2%

The main difference in comparison to the polls is that I think that many Labour voters who have been flirting with the LibDems, Greens and CUK will in the end break for Labour, allowing them to overperform the polls a little.

[Tender Branson]

My updated Austria EU prediction for Sunday:

32.5% ÖVP (+5.5%)
28.3% SPÖ (+4.2%)
15.4% FPÖ (-4.3%)
10.6% Greens (-3.9%)
10.0% NEOS (+1.9%)
  2.4% Europe (+2.4%)
  0.8% KPÖ (+0.8%)
  0.0% Others (-6.6%)

Turnout: 51.6% (+6.2%)

Seats (18): 6 ÖVP (+1), 5 SPÖ (n.c.), 3 FPÖ (-1), 2 Greens (-1), 2 NEOS (+1)

The 19th seat (after Brexit) would go to the SPÖ.

[tomhguy]

Here are my UK (without Northern Ireland)predictions
BRX: 29 [+29], 30%
LD: 14 [+13], 20%
LAB: 12 [-8], 19%
CON: 7 [-12], 14%
GRN: 4 [+1], 11%
SNP: 3 [+1], 3%
PC: 1 [+0], 1%
CHG: 0 [+0], 1%
UKIP: 0 [-24), 1%

So I think that the Lib Dems will be used as a protest vote for Remainers, and the Brexit Party will be a protest vote for leavers/ Looking at turnout figures, the vote is up in remain areas, so I think that the higher turnout will mean that annoyed remainers will come out to vote Lib Dem. They may not necessarily agree with them on all of the issues, but they want to send a message to the Labour party that they need to change and change quickly. The Brexit Party will slightly underperform on the nationwide popular vote, yet get roughly the amount of MEPs that people are expecting. This is because the vote is down in the north, where I expect them to get most of their support. The conservative party will do slightly better than expected, and the greens will slightly underperform, with their vote mainly going to the Lib Dems.

[Mike88]

Updated projection for Portugal:

31.9% PS-S&D (+0.4), 8 seats (nc)
25.7% PSD-EPP, 7 (+1)
10.7% BE-GUE-NGL (+6.1), 2 (+1)
  9.0% CDU-GUE-NGL (-3.7), 2 (-1)
  7.0% CDS-EPP, 1 (nc)
  3.6% PAN-EGP (+1.9), 1 (+1)
  1.9% Alliance (new), 0 (new)
  1.2% IL-ALDE (new), 0 (new)
  1.0% BASTA! (new), 0 (new)
  0.8% PDR-ALDE, 0 (-1)
  0.4% LIVRE-DiEM25 (-1.7), 0 (nc)
  2.0% Others, 0 (nc)
  4.8% Blank/Invalid (-2.6)
  
31.2% Turnout (-2.5)

Seats and vote share by EP parties: EPP - 32.7%, 8 seats (+1); S&D - 31.9%, 8 seats (nc); GUE-NGL - 19.7%, 4 seats (nc); EGP - 3.6%, 1 seat (+1); ALDE - 2.0%, 0 seats (-1)