It’s not just that more people voted in the Dem primaries. That was to be expected. It’s that:
1. Andy Beshear, despite being in a tight three-way race, got more votes by himself than Matt Bevin, who is an incumbent governor.
2. Rocky Adkins, despite finishing second in the Dem primaries, got nearly as many votes by himself as Matt Bevin, again an incumbent governor.
3. Matt Bevin could barely hold on to 50% of the vote in his own party primary against a bunch of no-name challengers who had no campaigns to speak of. That is a humiliating and pathetic margin, there’s no other way around it.
4. Matt Bevin actually outright LOST several counties to one of those no-name challengers, including both some ancestrally Democratic Eastern Kentucky counties and most of the deepest Republican South Central Kentucky counties.
The conclusion from this can only be that Matt Bevin has unbelievably weak support from his own party, which is an ominous sign for him because it means Republican turnout might be greatly depressed in November, the opposite of how it was when he won in 2015. Combined with the fact that Bevin is literally the least popular governor in the country and Beshear is the son of a popular governor who himself managed to win in 2015 even as Bevin won, and I have to say that if you still think Bevin is the favorite you are either burying your head in the sand or are just plain ignorant of the political reality in Kentucky right now.
No I agree Bevin is endangered. He really might be screwed actually. I just think it's counterproductive to merely say that Dems are favored because they (as expected) had more primary ballots cast. Ultimately, I think it'll be close once Trump comes in with his rallies. But a Beshear +3 victory is what I'm guessing right now
