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October 23, 2019, 10:51:00 am
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  Rate Kentucky (2019)
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Poll
Question: Rate the gubernatorial race in Kentucky
#1Safe Bevin  
#2Likely Bevin  
#3Lean Bevin  
#4Toss-Up/Tilt Bevin  
#5Toss-Up/Tilt Beshear  
#6Lean Beshear  
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 103

Author Topic: Rate Kentucky (2019)  (Read 1322 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: May 22, 2019, 01:16:50 pm »

I'm changing my characterization of this race from Likely R --> Lean R. No, not because 60% of votes cast in the primary were Democratic, more so because Bevin got a pathetic margin of victory out of his primary. There's a very real risk of Republicans staying home, Bevin is going to practically beg Trump to come into Kentucky to save his ass. I realize we're a half year out, but all the signs so far confirm Bevin is, in fact, the least popular governor in the country and he performed like it yesterday. Bevin still has a (pathetically) weak advantage going into the general election.

I know there are a few posters sticking to their guns calling it Safe R, but I think you're gonna have egg on your face if this thing ends up close.
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TML
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 01:19:49 pm »

I remember several months ago someone wrote an opinion column that Beshear's campaign might turn out just like that of Jack Conway in 2015, based on Beshear's campaign style compared to Conway's style.

I'll keep observing this race, but I do see the potential for it to shape out like that.
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Skye
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 01:21:01 pm »

Lean R, for now.
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Esteemed Jimmy7812
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2019, 01:29:36 pm »

Strong Lean R
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KYWildman
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2019, 01:33:12 pm »
« Edited: May 22, 2019, 01:38:20 pm by KYWildman »

I remember several months ago someone wrote an opinion column that Beshear's campaign might turn out just like that of Jack Conway in 2015, based on Beshear's campaign style compared to Conway's style.

I'll keep observing this race, but I do see the potential for it to shape out like that.

Beshear has at least four things going for him Conway didnít:

1. He has never lost a statewide race. Conway was tainted by his failed Senate bid against Rand Paul.

2. His name. Steve Beshear won two landslides within the last 12 years, and remains a popular figure in the state.

3. Beshear actually won (albeit narrowly) a statewide race the same year Conway lost to Bevin, 2015, which was generally a really bad turnout year, especially for Democrats. Turnout should actually FAVOR Democrats this year, given both Bevinís unpopularity and the national partisan climate that should motivate Democrats more.

4. Bevin was still pretty unknown at the time and people were willing to roll the dice on him after eight years of Democratic leadership and a lackluster Democratic candidate. Now, however, people know him, and they HATE him. He IS the least popular governor in the country. Incumbency will be a DISADVANTAGE for him.

Moreover, the state Democratic Party should be pretty united around Beshear, while Bevinís support is lackluster even among his own party ó rank and file voters AND legislators (who have mutinied against Bevin) AND elites (i.e. McConnell, who hasnít forgotten Bevin tried to primary him) all dislike Bevin.

The man is Kentucky Fried Chicken. Anyone who canít see that because ďmuh partisan leanĒ is woefully ignorant of Kentucky state politics to an embarrassing degree. By the same logic Charlie Baker was doomed to fail in 2018. I would have thought this board of all places would know that state politics do not equal national politics, and this is even more true in certain states (including Kentucky) than others. But I guess the temptation to write Kentucky off as nothing but a bunch of stupid hicks who will vote Republican for every office until the end of time is too strong...

Anyone who is actually voting anything stronger for Bevin than Toss-Up/Tilt Bevin either has their head buried deep in the sand or is so ignorant about the race they shouldnít be voting in this poll.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: May 22, 2019, 01:39:46 pm »

While Democrats getting more votes overall is irrelevant, the fact that Bevin did so poorly in the primary does give me pause. While I definitely don't want to get my hopes up, and I still think most Republicans will come home for Bevin, I'll acknowledge that there's a chance he could lose, even if it is a Jim Carrey chance. I'll move this from Safe R to Likely R.
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swamiG
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« Reply #6 on: May 22, 2019, 01:42:26 pm »

While Democrats getting more votes overall is irrelevant, the fact that Bevin did so poorly in the primary does give me pause. While I definitely don't want to get my hopes up, and I still think most Republicans will come home for Bevin, I'll acknowledge that there's a chance he could lose, even if it is a Jim Carrey chance. I'll move this from Safe R to Likely R.

This should never have been Safe R to begin with lol
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #7 on: May 22, 2019, 01:47:20 pm »

Likely R, but closer to lean than safe.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #8 on: May 22, 2019, 01:50:17 pm »

Unlike, what blue avatars think, its Tilt Beshear, every poll, has shown Beshear leading.
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Ishan
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« Reply #9 on: May 22, 2019, 02:14:11 pm »

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Roll Roons
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« Reply #10 on: May 22, 2019, 02:22:14 pm »

Close to a pure tossup, but I actually give the slightest edge to Beshear. Obviously Kentucky is a much redder state, but the primary result reminds me of what happened with Rauner last year. Plus Beshear's name was able to help him survive the 2015 red wave that brought down Edelen, and it's still an asset this year.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2019, 04:33:29 pm »

Would've been tossup with Adkins, lean/likely R with Beshear.
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Politician
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2019, 04:37:55 pm »

Tilt R, would have been Tilt D with Adkins, Likely R with Edelen.
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Barron
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« Reply #13 on: May 22, 2019, 05:03:37 pm »

At the moment, I'd tilt it to Beshear, but I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump does 2-3 rallies in the state and makes the race Likely R. I wouldn't underestimate Beshear, though, he probably has a better chance than Bevin ignoring Trump.
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swamiG
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« Reply #14 on: May 22, 2019, 06:54:46 pm »

At the moment, I'd tilt it to Beshear, but I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump does 2-3 rallies in the state and makes the race Likely R. I wouldn't underestimate Beshear, though, he probably has a better chance than Bevin ignoring Trump.

Why are you #NeverBeshear, according to your signature? Just curious
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Barron
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« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2019, 07:31:56 pm »

At the moment, I'd tilt it to Beshear, but I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump does 2-3 rallies in the state and makes the race Likely R. I wouldn't underestimate Beshear, though, he probably has a better chance than Bevin ignoring Trump.

Why are you #NeverBeshear, according to your signature? Just curious

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article174005941.html

Not a fan of political dynasties either.
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Sensitive Soccer Moms Against Impeachment
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« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2019, 12:54:24 am »

Tossup, although Tilt R if forced to choose. You could definitely make a case for Lean R, but I really donít buy the Safe R KY meme.

KY-SEN 2020 is Safe R, but this race isnít.
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swamiG
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« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2019, 06:01:48 am »

At the moment, I'd tilt it to Beshear, but I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump does 2-3 rallies in the state and makes the race Likely R. I wouldn't underestimate Beshear, though, he probably has a better chance than Bevin ignoring Trump.

Why are you #NeverBeshear, according to your signature? Just curious

https://www.kentucky.com/news/politics-government/article174005941.html

Not a fan of political dynasties either.

This literally has nothing to do with *Andy* aka Baby Beshear
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2019, 06:38:44 am »

Likely GOP Hold.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2019, 09:43:28 am »

Lean R for now with the potential to move in either direction.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2019, 12:28:07 pm »

Tossup, although Tilt R if forced to choose. You could definitely make a case for Lean R, but I really donít buy the Safe R KY meme.

KY-SEN 2020 is Safe R, but this race isnít.
That sounds about right.

(And thank you for avoiding the childish expression "gun to my head".)
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2019, 12:36:30 pm »


No
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2019, 02:39:46 pm »

How would such a map look? Itís not hard for me to envision Beshear getting to around 45#ē% (just a bit better than Jim Grayís performance), but after that Iím stumped. He needs either red suburbs to go his way or a resurrection of coal mining Dems
[/quote]

1995 map would be sufficient, due to Paul Patton narrow win over his GOP opponent Larry Forgey, 50-48%

If Beshear wins, that will be his margin over Matt Bevin
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Speaker YE
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« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2019, 02:47:20 pm »

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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2019, 02:48:51 pm »

Tossup, although Tilt R if forced to choose. You could definitely make a case for Lean R, but I really donít buy the Safe R KY meme.

KY-SEN 2020 is Safe R, but this race isnít.

How would such a map look? Itís not hard for me to envision Beshear getting to around 45#ē% (just a bit better than Jim Grayís performance), but after that Iím stumped. He needs either red suburbs to go his way or a resurrection of coal mining Dems

He does most likely need to win over a large number of ancestral Democrats in Coal Country, which is why I believe Rocky Adkins would have been a better candidate than Beshear, but oh well. I suppose it's possible Beshear could still win by swinging the suburbs way to the left and winning back a couple rural counties, but I wouldn't count on it.
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