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July 23, 2019, 09:13:30 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, VirginiŠ)
  Rate Kentucky (2019) (search mode)
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Poll
Question: Rate the gubernatorial race in Kentucky
#1Safe Bevin  
#2Likely Bevin  
#3Lean Bevin  
#4Toss-Up/Tilt Bevin  
#5Toss-Up/Tilt Beshear  
#6Lean Beshear  
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Total Voters: 103

Author Topic: Rate Kentucky (2019)  (Read 1033 times)
Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« on: May 22, 2019, 01:50:17 pm »

Unlike, what blue avatars think, its Tilt Beshear, every poll, has shown Beshear leading.
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #1 on: May 23, 2019, 12:36:30 pm »

Likely GOP Hold.

No
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #2 on: May 23, 2019, 02:39:46 pm »

How would such a map look? Itís not hard for me to envision Beshear getting to around 45#ē% (just a bit better than Jim Grayís performance), but after that Iím stumped. He needs either red suburbs to go his way or a resurrection of coal mining Dems
[/quote]

1995 map would be sufficient, due to Paul Patton narrow win over his GOP opponent Larry Forgey, 50-48%

If Beshear wins, that will be his margin over Matt Bevin
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #3 on: May 23, 2019, 02:51:02 pm »

Dems need to win in KY, to make sure that Biden prove that they are viable in OH and IA again. KY win will dispel Trump strength in OH. Especially, if Biden picks Bullock or Ryan
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2019, 04:29:53 pm »

Dems need to win in KY, to make sure that Biden prove that they are viable in OH and IA again. KY win will dispel Trump strength in OH. Especially, if Biden picks Bullock or Ryan

Are you suggesting Beshear's coattails will carry Biden over the finish line in a different state one year later?
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2019, 06:17:31 pm »

Dems need to win in KY, to make sure that Biden prove that they are viable in OH and IA again. KY win will dispel Trump strength in OH. Especially, if Biden picks Bullock or Ryan

Are you suggesting Beshear's coattails will carry Biden over the finish line in a different state one year later?

Some people are really DUMB

Every poll has Beshear ahead, what poll has Bevin ahead?
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2019, 06:22:10 pm »

Text was yesterday, things change.
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2019, 03:10:06 pm »

Lean R.

No, Beshear will get some of the Paul Patton voters, that voter R in 2015 due to Bevin's unpopularity. Every poll has had Beshear leading Bevin.
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Cory Booker
olawakandi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2019, 06:42:13 pm »

Senator Grimes and Governor Conway agree

Good thing this is 2014 then.

This might be a bit of hubris after the primary results, but I would say tilt Brashear

That is relating to Olawakandi's post, also Beshear probably loses, this is KY, and KY does not like Democrats, ALG and Beshear won narrowly in 2015, and KY has only gotten redder

Beshear will lose this time around

Greg Stumbo for AG may also be competitive, but I think that flips R

No other statewide races in KY will even be competitive

More Democrats voted in the Democratic primary than GOP, its a tossup, Beshear can equal a Paul Patton victory map over Bevin 50-48%, over David Fogerty, in 1995. But, Bevin is still in the game.
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