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  Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)
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Author Topic: Maryland Gubernatorial Elections (2002-2018)  (Read 713 times)
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Thunder98
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« on: May 22, 2019, 05:06:16 pm »

Usually MD is very Dem friendly up and down the ballot, but in 2002 Ehrlich was the first Republican elected as Governor in MD since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Gov Ehrlich ran in 2006 and lost to O'Malley, same story in 2010. Larry Hogan won in a major upset in 2014 against Lieutenant Gov Anthony Brown and Gov. Hogan won again in 2018 by a higher margin.



2002: Ehrlich +3.7%


2006: O'Malley +6.5%


2010: O'Malley +14.4%


2014: Hogan +3.8%


2018: Hogan +11.9%
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2019, 06:20:30 pm »

Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2019, 06:44:02 pm »

Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2019, 08:39:35 pm »

Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

I'm assuming Hogan is the first GOPer to get close to 30% among African Americans since Agnew in 1966 right ?

Ehrlich won 14% of African Americans in 2002, then 16% in 2006 & I think 13% in 2010 ?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4 on: May 22, 2019, 11:32:50 pm »

Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

I'm assuming Hogan is the first GOPer to get close to 30% among African Americans since Agnew in 1966 right ?

Ehrlich won 14% of African Americans in 2002, then 16% in 2006 & I think 13% in 2010 ?

Probably yes. But Charles Mathias got even higher Black percentage in at least some of his Maryland Senate races, IIRC...
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2019, 12:42:28 am »

Why did Ehrlich lose anyway? I thought he was decently popular. Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, California and Hawaii (!!!) won reelection in '06 and Hogan won reelection last fall so there has to have been more to it than just the wave.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #6 on: May 23, 2019, 11:18:11 am »

Does anyone know what percentage of the black and Hispanic vote Hogan got last year? I'm stunned by how well he did in Baltimore City.
lost Hispanics 52-47 and blacks 71-28.

Wow thatís crazy. I wonder thatís the best a Republican has done with black people (in a heavily black state) recently. Thatís an amazing performance
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #7 on: May 23, 2019, 02:17:44 pm »

The GOP ran ultra liberal Ben Jealous instead of Rashurn Baker. Baker, in 2022, should be the nominee.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: May 23, 2019, 02:20:04 pm »

I should note that then-NJ Governor Tom Kean, Sr., (R) won 11% of African Americans in 1981 & later got a whopping 62% in 1985.

Christine Todd Whitman (R) won 25% of African Americans in 1993 & later 17% in 1997.

Christie got 9% in 2009 & later improved to 21% in 2013.

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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #9 on: May 23, 2019, 05:25:42 pm »

Once Hogan is term-limited, the MD GOP may not have any bench for a statewide race. Andy Harris is far too conservative, and if MD-06 gets changed to be R-leaning, I doubt that Rep will be statewide material.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #10 on: May 23, 2019, 05:28:30 pm »

Why did Ehrlich lose anyway? I thought he was decently popular. Republican governors in Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, California and Hawaii (!!!) won reelection in '06 and Hogan won reelection last fall so there has to have been more to it than just the wave.
He did have positive approvals on election day in 2006, but it still wasn't enough. Hogan had about +40 approvals and only won by 11, so gives you a sense of how Democratic Maryland really is.
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politicalmasta73
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« Reply #11 on: May 23, 2019, 07:03:25 pm »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #12 on: May 23, 2019, 08:09:37 pm »

Hogan is the GOP version of JBE ?
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« Reply #13 on: May 23, 2019, 09:57:43 pm »

Hogan is the GOP version of JBE ?

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott also fit that bill.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2019, 12:00:31 am »

Hogan is the GOP version of JBE ?

Charlie Baker and Phil Scott also fit that bill.

And even more so, as both are more liberal then Hogan...
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2019, 09:42:19 am »

Once Hogan is term-limited, the MD GOP may not have any bench for a statewide race. Andy Harris is far too conservative, and if MD-06 gets changed to be R-leaning, I doubt that Rep will be statewide material.

While Hogan will almost certainly be succeeded by a Democrat, a secretary from from his administration could be a good bet for the future. That's how Hogan (and Baker) got their starts.
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2019, 10:08:37 am »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

So many Republican candidates last year had the "Hogan Endorsed!" sticker slapped everywhere on their branding. Voters clearly didn't care. Interesting that he's so personally popular but has limited political capital.

==
Also from these maps: As Goes Howard County, So Goes Maryland, it seems.
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« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2019, 01:39:10 pm »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2019, 02:07:01 pm »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2019, 03:16:04 pm »

Sounds like the MD GOP is going to hit rock bottom when Hogan leaves office on January 18th, 2023.
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #20 on: May 25, 2019, 10:01:33 am »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #21 on: May 25, 2019, 01:47:52 pm »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.

What I do not get is then why did Republicans fail to win the seat in 2014 when the national environment was much better for them?
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PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #22 on: May 25, 2019, 03:10:23 pm »

Pretty incredible how the Maryland GOP got utterly annhilated in all the major county executive races even with Hogan romping in all of them. They ran 40 points behind him in Baltimore County, Anne Arundel and Frederick.
Hogan's performance had quite literally no downballot coattails.

He scored his party a net gain of 1 seat in State Senate races, with 2 gains (1 in Clinton territory, 1 in Trump territory), and 1 loss (in Clinton territory). There were downballot coattails.

Ironically, this is not the 1st time in recent memory where a party gained seats in the Maryland State Senate while the national environment had tilted heavily in the other direction. Democrats took a net gain of 2 seats in the Maryland State Senate in 2010.

Who was the clown that managed to lose a Clinton seat last year? There's no excuse for that, particularly when people like Jan Gardner were easily winning in light red turf as Hogan was landsliding.

Robbie Leonard

It was an open seat vacated by the Jim Brochin, the Conservative Democrat who lost the Baltimore County Executive Democratic Primary by 17 votes.
To be fair, some places in Maryland tend to just have a less Democratic lean than in presidential elections. Clinton carried Baltimore County by 17, while Olszewski won by 15.

What I do not get is then why did Republicans fail to win the seat in 2014 when the national environment was much better for them?
Incumbency, most likely. Brochin was entrenched.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #23 on: May 26, 2019, 02:46:03 pm »

When's the last time the MD GOP controlled both chambers of the MD General Assembly ?
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Tartarus Sauce
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2019, 09:06:54 pm »

When's the last time the MD GOP controlled both chambers of the MD General Assembly ?

1899-1901, which was also the only legislative session in Maryland history where both chambers were controlled by Republicans.
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