NH-Tel Opinion Research: Biden 33, Sanders 12, Warren 11, Buttigieg/Harris 7

[GeorgiaModerate]

New Hampshire: Tel Opinion Research, May 20-22, 600 LV

Biden 33
Sanders 12
Warren 11
Buttigieg 7
Harris 7
O'Rourke 1

2-way matchups:

Biden 66, Sanders 22
Biden 58, Warren 29
Biden 63, Buttigieg 21

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Not sure if I buy Sanders doing worse than Buttigieg, but things are definitely not looking sunny for Bernie at the moment.

[Gass3268]

Wow, Sanders has collapsed.

[The Mikado]

Do we know who Tel Opinion Research is?

Also, I know I'm the guy who likes to make fun of posters who write conspiracy theories about polls skewing elderly, but what the hell is this?

18-29 3%
30-44 15%
45-54 12%
55-64 23%
65-74 28%
75+ 20% (!!!!!!!!!)


Let's compare to the 2016 Dem exit poll in NH:

18-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-64 42%
65+ 18%

So these people think that 65+s are going to go from 18% of the primary electorate in 2016 to 48% next year?

I'll let the Bernie folks have this one, the age distribution is off the charts bad.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Do we know who Tel Opinion Research is?

Also, I know I'm the guy who likes to make fun of posters who write conspiracy theories about polls skewing elderly, but what the hell is this?

18-29 3%
30-44 15%
45-54 12%
55-64 23%
65-74 28%
75+ 20% (!!!!!!!!!)


Let's compare to the 2016 Dem exit poll in NH:

18-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-64 42%
65+ 18%

So these people think that 65+s are going to go from 18% of the primary electorate in 2016 to 48% next year?

I'll let the Bernie folks have this one, the age distribution is off the charts bad.

I don't know much about the firm, but 538's pollster ratings as of the last update (May 30 of last year -- they're about due for another update) gave them a B rating with 0 bias and a 96% success rate, based on 12 polls up to that time.

(I agree with the comments about the age distribution.)

[Eraserhead]

Dumpster fire.

[Xing]

Not a great poll at all for Sanders, but the age categories are definitely suspect. Primary voters might be old, but aren't THAT old. If literally nothing changes between now and February, then yeah, Sanders won't win, but calling a crowded primary nine months out is foolish.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL @ all the Bernie bros who were claiming Sanders was the frontrunner after a few polls showed him within 10 points of Biden after his announcement.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Do we know who Tel Opinion Research is?

Also, I know I'm the guy who likes to make fun of posters who write conspiracy theories about polls skewing elderly, but what the hell is this?

18-29 3%
30-44 15%
45-54 12%
55-64 23%
65-74 28%
75+ 20% (!!!!!!!!!)


Let's compare to the 2016 Dem exit poll in NH:

18-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-64 42%
65+ 18%

So these people think that 65+s are going to go from 18% of the primary electorate in 2016 to 48% next year?

I'll let the Bernie folks have this one, the age distribution is off the charts bad.

Gold Standard pollster Monmouth (A+), May 2 to 7, showed similar'ish results:

Biden     36%   vs 33% this poll
Sanders  18%   vs 12%
Buttigieg  9%    vs  7%
Warren    8%    vs 11%
Harris      6%    vs 7%


Weighted:
15% 18-34
18% 35-49
33% 50-64
34% 65+

[Progressive Pessimist]

Awful poll for Sanders. He absolutely needs to win here. That said, I don't know how much stock to put into this poll.

[Politician]

lmao

[Bidenworth2020]

It shouldn’t be a bold prediction, but mine is that even if Biden does indeed collapse, Sanders won’t be the nominee. Someone else will catch fire.

Interesting theory. Who takes the bulk of Biden's share then? Warren/Harris seem like the only ones with a real path.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is coalascing his support, he will be the nominee.

[Yank2133]

I doubt Biden is up that much in NH.

[Alben Barkley]

LOL LOL LOL

Can’t wait to hear how this is good for Bernie.

Hopefully once the actual results start coming in, people will FINALLY accept what I’ve been saying for four years: Most of Berne’s 2016 supporters were voting for “Not Hillary,” not Bernie Sanders. “Not Joe” doesn’t have the same appeal, even in (especially in?) rural areas.

[Alben Barkley]

Do we know who Tel Opinion Research is?

Also, I know I'm the guy who likes to make fun of posters who write conspiracy theories about polls skewing elderly, but what the hell is this?

18-29 3%
30-44 15%
45-54 12%
55-64 23%
65-74 28%
75+ 20% (!!!!!!!!!)


Let's compare to the 2016 Dem exit poll in NH:

18-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-64 42%
65+ 18%

So these people think that 65+s are going to go from 18% of the primary electorate in 2016 to 48% next year?

I'll let the Bernie folks have this one, the age distribution is off the charts bad.

You really should have stopped at the bolded part and saved yourself some embarrassment. “But the age distribution” is the new “But the superdelegates” of 2020. It’s the latest innovation of Bernie Math.

Even if we grant that the age distribution actually is significantly off here, even adjusting for that Bernie’s still way down in a state he has no excuse to not be comfortably winning, and no chance of winning the primaries without. AND this isn’t the first poll coming out of NH with similarly dire results for him. MAYBE the age distribution played a role in making this one look particularly bad, but he’s been collapsing in general lately. All signs point to it. Partly it’s Warren’s rise, partly it’s Joe stealing all his thunder among whites, rural voters, and moderates (according to FiveThirtyEight he actually benefits more than Joe from name recognition; more informed voters prefer Liz AND Biden to him), partly it’s his steep drop among even younger voters (according to MC, and according to latest polls he actually trails Joe among 18-49), partly it’s his drop in approval rating as people learn more about his views, partly it’s the more crowded field in general. In my view it’s above all else that he has no Hillary to contrast himself alone against anymore, and most of the “Not Hillary” voters like Joe better than him.

In any case the old man is on his death bed and if his ego wasn’t Trump-sized he’d read the writing on the wall, drop out now, and get behind Warren. He never should have run in the first place.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully Senator Warren shines on the debate stage and begins to surpass Sanders.

[JG]

Hopefully Senator Warren shines on the debate stage and begins to surpass Sanders.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Hopefully Senator Warren shines on the debate stage and begins to surpass Sanders.

Whether she can surpass Bernie or not, she has a long way to go before she's surpassing Biden.

[FRSJ]

Do we know who Tel Opinion Research is?

Also, I know I'm the guy who likes to make fun of posters who write conspiracy theories about polls skewing elderly, but what the hell is this?

18-29 3%
30-44 15%
45-54 12%
55-64 23%
65-74 28%
75+ 20% (!!!!!!!!!)


Let's compare to the 2016 Dem exit poll in NH:

18-29 18%
30-44 22%
45-64 42%
65+ 18%

So these people think that 65+s are going to go from 18% of the primary electorate in 2016 to 48% next year?

I'll let the Bernie folks have this one, the age distribution is off the charts bad.

You really should have stopped at the bolded part and saved yourself some embarrassment. “But the age distribution” is the new “But the superdelegates” of 2020. It’s the latest innovation of Bernie Math.

Even if we grant that the age distribution actually is significantly off here, even adjusting for that Bernie’s still way down in a state he has no excuse to not be comfortably winning, and no chance of winning the primaries without. AND this isn’t the first poll coming out of NH with similarly dire results for him. MAYBE the age distribution played a role in making this one look particularly bad, but he’s been collapsing in general lately. All signs point to it. Partly it’s Warren’s rise, partly it’s Joe stealing all his thunder among whites, rural voters, and moderates (according to FiveThirtyEight he actually benefits more than Joe from name recognition; more informed voters prefer Liz AND Biden to him), partly it’s his steep drop among even younger voters (according to MC, and according to latest polls he actually trails Joe among 18-49), partly it’s his drop in approval rating as people learn more about his views, partly it’s the more crowded field in general. In my view it’s above all else that he has no Hillary to contrast himself alone against anymore, and most of the “Not Hillary” voters like Joe better than him.

In any case the old man is on his death bed and if his ego wasn’t Trump-sized he’d read the writing on the wall, drop out now, and get behind Warren. He never should have run in the first place.

Bro, 65+ won't make up half the electorate. It just won't happen. Pointing that out isn't an embarrassment, it's common sense. This poll is bad for Bernie, and I agree with you that he's losing support (mostly to Joe and Warren), but the fire-and-brimstone condemnation of Sanders is better suited for literally any other poll that's been taken this cycle. You trying to downplay that 48% of this polling sample is likely going to make up around a fifth of the electorate is disingenuous.

Anyway, looking at the numbers alone I'd say this poll is good for Joe, Liz, and Kamala; but obviously I'm hesitant to do so given the flaw in age sampling. Regardless, as previously stated, Bernie is falling and it's looking increasingly likely that Warren passes him.

[whale]

Isn't that just their sample breakdown, and they weight the age groups appropriately to get the final numbers?  Of course, 3% 18-29 year olds is still bad, but then the issue is large margin of error, rather than a predictable bias

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Junk poll!

[Podgy the Bear]

Good to know that there are still those in the Democratic Party who are pragmatic and understand that defeating Trump is the primary goal and you would do that with the most likely candidate to do so.  And that candidate is Biden.

[ElectionsGuy]

This poll is utter garbage. Maybe Biden is leading in 49 states but the fact that people are using this to bash Bernie and his chances of winning is nonsensical.

[ON Progressive]

Isn't that just their sample breakdown, and they weight the age groups appropriately to get the final numbers?  Of course, 3% 18-29 year olds is still bad, but then the issue is large margin of error, rather than a predictable bias

You can only weigh so much though. When half your poll is over 65, no amount of weighing can really save it.