What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs?
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  What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs?
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Author Topic: What if Trump wasn't the cause of gop decline in suburbs?  (Read 1767 times)
morgankingsley
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« Reply #25 on: June 02, 2019, 01:48:37 AM »

He’s not the cause, but he is an accelerant.
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AN63093
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« Reply #26 on: June 03, 2019, 01:18:38 PM »

Calvert County is in the DC metropolitan statistical area as defined by the OMB and Census and Putnam is in the NY MSA.  Additionally, Calvert is in the DC commuting area defined by the OPM for purposes of establishing locality pay adjustments to federal salary.  Likewise, Putnam is in the NY commuting area used by the OPM.  Putnam is connected to NYC via commuter train (Metro North).. which in fact, goes all the way to Dutchess.  Commuter rail doesn't go to Calvert.. the MARC doesn't really service that area and the VA side has the VRE so there's a bit of a gap SE of DC if you can't get there from the green line.  But there is MTA commuter bus that goes past PG County, into Charles and Calvert, and actually all the way to St Mary's.  There are definitely people that commute to areas around the beltway and even DC proper from Calvert.

I am going to go with those objective criteria over your unexplained assertion which appears to just be your own personal opinion that no one else uses.  I'm originally from NY and I live in VA so I know this area.  You're not talking to some guy from the West Coast or something, so you're gonna have to do better than that.

I live in Baltimore County, Maryland myself.
The Patuxent River is quite clearly the boundary between the Baltimore and DC Metros. Under that line, Calvert County, Maryland is part of the Baltimore Metro, not the DC Metro.


Further upstream, I would agree.  For example, Columbia is pretty clearly in the Baltimore MSA, as opposed to the DC MSA.  But I would disagree with Calvert.

First, as I already discussed, governmental agencies do not define it that way.  I also don't think commuting patterns would support your argument.  Although I do not have data on this handy, I would be very skeptical that more people commute into Baltimore, as opposed to DC, from Calvert.  The fact that MTA commuter bus goes from points in Calvert into DC, but there are no routes into Baltimore, I think is pretty good evidence of that.  It is about 35 miles from the border of Calvert to DC, whereas the distance to Baltimore is over 50.  Finally, Calvert is in the DC media market, not the Baltimore market (you can google media market maps).  Depending on the TV package, you might be able to get Baltimore affiliates too, but traditionally you would've only been able to pick up the DC network affiliates on an antenna. 

By any metric you use, Calvert is in the DC metro.  You have not given a reason why it isn't, other than it's your personal opinion that anything north of the Patuxent is in the Baltimore MSA. 
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lfromnj
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« Reply #27 on: June 03, 2019, 07:59:59 PM »

The trend of suburban areas moving toward Democrats and rural areas moving toward the GOP has been going on for about the last two decades.

No it has not been going on for that long. A large extent of this happened only in 2016.

Los Angeles, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas, Chicago, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit; the suburbs of each of these large cities all trended Republican in 2012.

One election with a relatively slight R trend after decades of Trending D(atleast since 92) doesn't prove much especially when Mitt Romney was an awful candidate for WWC areas like Lackawanna and Mahoning. He actually did worse than John Mccain.
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