Conservative leadership election

[YL]

Hancock has indeed withdrawn, but appears not to have endorsed anyone else.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1139258134105591808

Candidates who are going to formally withdraw must do so by lunchtime today.  It looks like Hancock may well do so.

Robert Peston also says there is some talk of either getting rid of the membership ballot (presumably by persuading the runner up to withdraw, as happened last time) or massively shortening it.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-13/why-tory-members-ballot-on-boris-johnson-may-be-culled-or-truncated-writes-robert-peston/

So the PM Johnson nightmare may start sooner than expected.

I really don't think a lot of the membership would react kindly to be denied a say yet again, even if most want Johnson. Don't you think some might take the hint from May's experience anyway - not having any mandate from the members didn't help when the chips were down.

(you can argue the same for Gordon Brown, as well)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about Johnson is that he is first and foremost a bunco artist. A lot of politicians have flashes of that about them, and right now such politicians are more prominent than usual, but he's unusual in that that is his primary nature. Which isn't the same thing as saying he has no principles, no ideology. He does. He believes in Property and in some loose sense of Britain's Greatness. But that is about all.

He is also a lucky man and has been his whole life. Things just tend to work out for him; opportunities arise almost unbidden, and when he makes mistakes (which is often) they are reliably negated by the mistakes and miscalculations of others. On some level he will now believe that there is very little that he cannot get away with. When his downfall - his final downfall, the one that sticks - occurs there is little doubt that this will be the principle cause. But for now he will keep on believing that he will always roll sixes and this will encourage him in his shamelessness.

[beesley]

Hancock has indeed withdrawn, but appears not to have endorsed anyone else.

Sajid was really coveting that endorsement. I suspect his support will splinter between the non Boris/Raab candidates.

[Blair]

The main takeaway that no-one is talking about is the absolute failure of the egos of the party to stop Johnson getting to the final ballot. Much like the PLP in 2015, the MPs have the sole power to stop someone they think is unfit being PM. If Raab had done a better job, and if Hunt/Javid/Gove/Hancock made a deal, you would have had enough votes to get a tight finish between Johnson/Raab and whoever the 'unity candidate' was.

The only way these sort of games work is if you try and fiddle the final two- but much like in 2016, once someone has such a large first ballot lead, there's really no point trying- because it won't work.

Johnson is going to be in the final round, and most likely win- there's no point in Hancock endorsing Javid. He'll most likely back Johnson in exchange for a 'big' job- most likely Home Secretary or Chancellor, but honest who knows with reshuffles like this

[beesley]

From a British perspective:

Johnson = Biden (biggest frontrunner, gets all the attacks, but he's actually unstoppable and everyone should rally behind him because only he will defeat our evil opponents!)
Hunt = Warren (all about delivering things, electability concerns, no apparent voter base but still doing well)
Gove = Klobuchar (not the best past, not an especially engaging or impressive figure to the wider electorate, but a middle of the road candidate)
Raab = Booker (one of the first to declare, was seen as absolutely amazing for about a day, otherwise not gained any traction, very limited selection of food eaten.)
Javid = Harris (adopting the 'least successful frontrunner' role)
Stewart = Buttigieg (look how great this guy nobody had ever previously heard of is)
Hancock = Beto (uses technology for everything, 'young and dynamic,' but in reality is not the person anybody is looking for)
McVey = Bernie (undecided on how revolutionary they are, pretty polarising, underperforming)
Harper = Ryan (is the candidate who 'hasn't been a part of all the failings of leadership', kinda liked but pretty average)
Leadsom = Inslee (talks about climate change, generally liked by all, just not enough, but will still do slightly better than expected)
Malthouse = Bennet (sort of in the middle of everything, and he may not be the frontrunner, but he's actually what we're looking for, apparently)
Cleverly = Ojeda (military figure, claimed to have millions of supporters, but then dropped out, because they weren't actually doing well)
Gyimah = Delaney (minor figure, opposes the direction of the party completely, pretty unremarkable)

How far do you agree with me?

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not a Sanders groupie but blimmin eck, comparing him with McVile is HARSH.

[beesley]

I'm not a Sanders groupie but blimmin eck, comparing him with McVile is HARSH.

It had to be someone I guess. Not a stan for any of the candidates, but I still appreciated her coming last, although it was kind of expected after 'yeah I'll sack everyone.'

[Famous Mortimer]

Johnson = a sort of mashup of Bernie and Biden, combines Bernie's being slightly out of line with the party ideologically and being hated by the party establishment with Biden's being loved by the public. Basically Bernie if Bernie was more popular

Hunt = Harris/Booker/Gillibrand, establishment figure who's not popular with the general public

Gove = Warren, somewhat out of line with the establishment but still acceptable to the establishment, moderately popular with the base

Javid = Booker/Harris, establishment figure plus minority

Stewart = Buttigieg, painfully establishment figure who is so aggressively establishment it almost comes off as quirky and the media tries to make him seem like an outsider despite his connections

Hancock = Bennet/Bullock/Delany/Hickenlooper/Inslee/Mouton/Ryan/Swawell, boring white guy with no reason to be running

McVey = Yang, has the same populist appeal as Bernie (Johnson) but even more

Harper = Bennet/Bullock/Delany/Hickenlooper/Inslee/Mouton/Ryan/Swawell, boring white guy with no reason to be running

Leadsom = Gillibrand, somewhat in touch with the base on social issues but maybe a little too much to make her a good general election candidate, some appeal in theory but not in practice

Malthouse = O'Rourke, kinda same as Buttigieg but more boring

Gyimah = Tulsi, weird ideology, parts of which are very out of line with the party, both the establishment and the base, not kicked out because they're a minority

[beesley]

Gyimah = Tulsi, weird ideology, parts of which are very out of line with the party, both the establishment and the base, not kicked out because they're a minority

Despite the fact we chose completely different people for him, they're both awful candidates who have no reason to be running.

The deselection bid against him seems to have faded.

[adma]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

[Famous Mortimer]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

In American Republican terms, he's Jon Huntsman.

[LabourJersey]

From a British perspective:

Johnson = Biden (biggest frontrunner, gets all the attacks, but he's actually unstoppable and everyone should rally behind him because only he will defeat our evil opponents!)
Hunt = Warren (all about delivering things, electability concerns, no apparent voter base but still doing well)
Gove = Klobuchar (not the best past, not an especially engaging or impressive figure to the wider electorate, but a middle of the road candidate)
Raab = Booker (one of the first to declare, was seen as absolutely amazing for about a day, otherwise not gained any traction, very limited selection of food eaten.)
Javid = Harris (adopting the 'least successful frontrunner' role)
Stewart = Buttigieg (look how great this guy nobody had ever previously heard of is)
Hancock = Beto (uses technology for everything, 'young and dynamic,' but in reality is not the person anybody is looking for)
McVey = Bernie (undecided on how revolutionary they are, pretty polarising, underperforming)
Harper = Ryan (is the candidate who 'hasn't been a part of all the failings of leadership', kinda liked but pretty average)
Leadsom = Inslee (talks about climate change, generally liked by all, just not enough, but will still do slightly better than expected)
Malthouse = Bennet (sort of in the middle of everything, and he may not be the frontrunner, but he's actually what we're looking for, apparently)
Cleverly = Ojeda (military figure, claimed to have millions of supporters, but then dropped out, because they weren't actually doing well)
Gyimah = Delaney (minor figure, opposes the direction of the party completely, pretty unremarkable)

How far do you agree with me?

Trying to compare the Democratic field to the Conservative candidates is just so absurd, not least cause this is initially an MP-only vote and so a lot of the primary dynamic would never apply if, say, only Democratic members of congress voted for the top 2.

I do like the comparison between Buttigieg and Rory Stewart, though.

[beesley]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

To an extent - both are the moderate voice trying to soak up the 'second most common view' base, but Chong is not as exciting or outspoken as Stewart. Considering that parties in Canada are far more united, we probably won't see any of the dynamics.

[adma]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

To an extent - both are the moderate voice trying to soak up the 'second most common view' base, but Chong is not as exciting or outspoken as Stewart. Considering that parties in Canada are far more united, we probably won't see any of the dynamics.

Yeah "token wets".

Though to a small degree, Boris = Maxime Bernier.

[beesley]

In Canadian Consaervative terms, Rory Stewart = Mike Chong?

To an extent - both are the moderate voice trying to soak up the 'second most common view' base, but Chong is not as exciting or outspoken as Stewart. Considering that parties in Canada are far more united, we probably won't see any of the dynamics.

Yes

Yeah "token wets".

Though to a small degree, Boris = Maxime Bernier.

Yes - especially because I can imagine Boris flouncing off and shouting from the sidelines if he lost.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1140363467821670400

[Velasco]

Stewart = Buttigieg, painfully establishment figure who is so aggressively establishment it almost comes off as quirky and the media tries to make him seem like an outsider despite his connections

Rory Stewart is more akin to James Bond

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/did-rory-stewart-spy-mi6-intrigue-surrounds-tory-candidate-leadership/

Rory Stewart is facing scrutiny over his alleged past as a spy after he denied working for MI6 before becoming an MP.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stewart = Buttigieg, painfully establishment figure who is so aggressively establishment it almost comes off as quirky and the media tries to make him seem like an outsider despite his connections

Rory Stewart is more akin to James Bond

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/did-rory-stewart-spy-mi6-intrigue-surrounds-tory-candidate-leadership/

Rory Stewart is facing scrutiny over his alleged past as a spy after he denied working for MI6 before becoming an MP.

Buttigieg is CIA. The CIA just has more power than MI5/MI6 so they don't even allow it to become a media controversy.

[Zinneke]

Why would being a spy in the past disqualify you from public office? Why would having close links with the intelligence services whilst you were vice-governor of an Iraqi Province disqualify you from public office?

[Velasco]

Why would being a spy in the past disqualify you from public office? Why would having close links with the intelligence services whilst you were vice-governor of an Iraqi Province disqualify you from public office?

Ask the Telegraph

[beesley]

Ahead of the second ballot - under these numbers Saj, Raab and Rory would be eliminated.

[YL]

Second ballot (comparison with first in brackets)

Johnson 126 (+12)
Hunt 46 (+3)
Gove 41 (+4)
Stewart 37 (+18)
Javid 33 (+10)
Raab 30 (+3) and out

33 was the threshold so everyone else stays in for now.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

So who are Raab voters most likely to go to?

[Dereich]

So who are Raab voters most likely to go to?

I'd assume they'd all go to Boris. Raab was standing as the most pro-Brexit/no-deal candidate and Boris is their natural next choice as the only one who will tie himself to leaving in October.