Conservative leadership election (user search)
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Author Topic: Conservative leadership election  (Read 20386 times)
brucejoel99
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Posts: 19,449
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« on: June 18, 2019, 01:37:13 PM »

Out of curiosity, I wonder who May's been voting for? One would presume Hunt but when your own deputy, arguably your closest ally, endorses Rory, it's not hard to wonder.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2019, 12:22:49 PM »

There goes the only semblance of sanity in this sorry situation.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: June 20, 2019, 12:20:52 PM »


Bet it's Stewart, Clarke, or May.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #3 on: June 21, 2019, 02:19:40 PM »

So there's some news that has just broken. May develop in a big way, may not. Sort of story that one wishes to be careful of until the facts are clear. Anyway.

What (potentially) happened? Not seeing anything on any of the news sites.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #4 on: June 21, 2019, 02:20:56 PM »

What time does the final round begin?

Whenever the first rank-&-file Tory member receives their postal ballot.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #5 on: June 21, 2019, 03:29:02 PM »

Say it with me now: Prime Minister Jeremy Hunt.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2019, 04:36:33 PM »

As a Conservative supporter (not a member), I really hope Jeremy Hunt wins the election. Not because I'm one of the remainer Conservatives, but because I think he'd be a far better PM. He'd be more likely to get an improved Brexit deal, plus he'd lead the Conservatives so we get some reasonably effective governance for longer, rather than the next chapter of the Boris Johnson story. He might fail to unite them, but there are still a lot of Conservative MPs opposed to Boris too. You might disagree to the extent of Jeremy's achievements, but the idea that Boris has had so many great accomplishments is fantasy - he simply gets all the credit for things that happened during his term. - many good executives at TfL for example left at the end of Boris' mayoralty/at the beginning of Khan's mayoralty (partly due to dissatisfaction with the awful job Khan's doing.) His term as foreign secretary was not a great success. Hunt actually is prepared to be held to account, showing up to these debates and delivering more detailed policy ideas. He's also a family man and doesn't have all the domestic troubles - I know it's private, but it's still a quality. Unfortunately, I'm not sure Hunt can pull it off - there's a good chunk of the membership whose only idea of Brexit involves Boris Johnson, but who knows, it is British politics after all.

There is going to be no better Brexit deal. It is not happening. Patience with the British has run out in europe, even in this country where our government has traditionally been very open to british demands. Our papers are full of editorials essentially calling for Britain to **** off without a deal and let us move on. Even our infuential anglophile business associations are saying the Integrity of the Single Market is far more important than any British market. Europe is not exactly happy about a no deal but it has been preparing for it for more than a year. It can take no-deal, and will call the British bluff, if necessary. Any British politician telling you they will magically force consessions from the EU is selling you a pipe dream.

Otherwise full agreement with your post.

I mean, I'm as fed up with the British procrastinating as any political observer but EU diplomats have apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal, so it's hypothetically not out of the realm of possibility that we could see something that's marketed as "an improved Brexit deal" emerge out of all of this.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2019, 08:00:01 PM »

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

Yeah, the point of prorogation is to prevent parliament from bringing down a government intent on running out the clock.

If Boris has a plan, I suspect it's something like:
try to renegotiate the WA -> refuse to extend -> bait parliament into blocking or revoking -> snap election -> unite leavers on a no deal platform -> win big majority -> use it to pass the WA

That seems like a really risky plan. Though I guess Boris doesn't care

That part is the crux and probably the most likely reason such a gambit would fail. For all their bluster, the Tories' support for no deal when they've had to record a vote on it is ambivalent at best. They split almost in half on the no-deal indicative vote back in March and only 34 or so voted against May's deal the third time around, which ostensibly would have resulted in a no-deal if May hadn't asked for an extension (I know it's not that straightforward, but still).

A Tory Party pursuing no deal would likely see a few dozen MPs refuse to stand or pledge to oppose the manifesto, possibly leading to their deselection. Unless they made some arrangement with the Brexit Party (I think this is highly unlikely), it could produce a 'Canadian PCs in 1993' kind of meltdown.



That could probably be the most satisfying election result in a long, long time

SNP as Her Majesty's Official Opposition when?
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2019, 11:09:56 AM »

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2019, 11:26:50 AM »

Indeed. Unless one is inclined (or paid to) disbelieve everything the EU says and imagine the UK/Johnson can get what they want automatically, it's quite clear there's going to be no change in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Well, if you're inclined to believe what the EU says, then maybe you'd believe what I'd said considering it's the EU's diplomats themselves who've apparently been privately saying that, while the EU remains resistant to reopening the WA, they could still add to it in addition to potentially rewriting the political declaration on a future relationship & wrapping the whole thing up in a new umbrella deal.

This isn't a pro-Boris delusion (I mean, f**k Boris); it's just what's been reported as fact.

Reported as fact, but not reported very accurately. EU diplomats have said they'd add to the WA, rewrite the PD, and sign off on a comprehensive new deal for months. Every time they do the British press, especially but not exclusively the pro-Brexit press, reports it as if they've finally located the chink in the EU's armour and that they're about to capitulate to the UK's demands. Inevitably, they fail to report the statement that always follows: that any adjustments to the current deal is dependent on accepting the major components of the current deal, i.e. the backstop/citizens rights/£39 billion payment.

Well, is that not implicit in saying that the WA (as it currently stands; i.e. the backstop/citizens' rights/divorce bill) won't be re-opened per se, but that it can be added onto (presumably) with smaller concessions to the UK?
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2019, 07:29:08 PM »

Interesting Conservative Home poll - Johnson 72, Hunt 28.

Ughhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2019, 05:32:40 PM »

Ladies & gentlemen, may I present to you, Boris Johnson, the newly elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:




Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

God help us all.

Welcome to the club. Signed, America.
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2019, 06:14:25 PM »

Ladies & gentlemen, may I present to you, Boris Johnson, the newly elected Prime Minister of the United Kingdom:




Boris Johnson, as expected, won. He is due to become Prime Minister tomorrow afternoon.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49084605

God help us all.

Welcome to the club. Signed, America.


Still a 1000 times better than Corbyn

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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2019, 07:00:41 PM »

I supported Hunt, and I've voted for both the Lib Dems and the Brexit Party this year, but I'm willing to give Johnson a chance. He may just confound as all.

lol
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brucejoel99
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*****
Posts: 19,449
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -3.30

« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2019, 08:05:14 PM »

I've said this before, but now it's official: the UK has had its three worst Prime Ministers in history all serve consecutively. I'm calling that now. History will recognize this decade as the Kingdom's most embarrassing.

Really? Worse than Chamberlain & Eden?
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