Conservative leadership election

[CumbrianLefty]

Two questions:

1. If May is out on June 6 and the leadership contest goes into mid-to-late July, who'll be PM in the early summer months? Will May stay on as a caretaker or will there be some sort of interim PM? If the latter, is there any precedent for that? I know there hasn't been in the past century or so, but perhaps something from the era of revolving-door Georgian/early Victorian PMs?
2. I suppose Rory Stewart has no chance? He's the only one of these people I sort of respect.

1. May is remaining PM until her successor as Tory leader is elected. If there is a final two to contest the membership (there wasn't last time) that means she will end up (just) passing the 3 year mark.

2. Less than 1% chance I would say. He was one of the very few Tory MPs my late father had any time for.

[CumbrianLefty]

So since the Tory MPs essentially decide on the top 2 candidates, what makes people think Boris is the front-runner? He seems to be hated by pretty much every MP--isn't it likely that they all vote strategically so he's not in the top 2?

That is overstating it, he still does have some suckers fans amongst the parliamentary party.

[CumbrianLefty]

Liz Truss has withdrawn her candidacy. Gove implies that BoJo doesn't have the "wherewithal" to deliver Brexit.

My immediate reaction:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EDsIT1lheo

Raab in. So is Gove.

Lol@Gove

I think he has a genuine chance, and is in the good books of a certain K R Murdoch.

[CumbrianLefty]

Trump has backed BoJo, apparently.

Let joy be unconfined.

[CumbrianLefty]

So which candidates are against No Deal and which are for it?

Explicitly favour of a no deal or 'managed exit.'

Esther McVey
Andrea Leadsom

Hopeful for a deal but prepared for a no deal in order to leave on 31st Oct

Boris Johnson
Dominic Raab
Sajid Javid

Hopeful for a deal and would extend A50 in order to see it happen, but not ruling out no deal

Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt

Have their own plan to avoid no deal but not opposed to no deal if said plan fails

Mark Harper
Matt Hancock

Explicitly opposed to no deal - if nothing can be achieved they will only leave on Theresa May's deal

Rory Stewart

Dominic "ABOLISH PARLIAMENT" Raab is gung-ho for no deal shurely?

[CumbrianLefty]

Esther McVey - LOL. Even fewer votes than Mark "who??" Harper.

And it genuinely couldn't happen to a nicer person.

[CumbrianLefty]

What would it take to get Hunt or Gove across the finish line?

Johnson spectacularly self-destructing in some way?

That remains very possible at some point, but in all likelihood not before he becomes PM.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1139258134105591808

Candidates who are going to formally withdraw must do so by lunchtime today.  It looks like Hancock may well do so.

Robert Peston also says there is some talk of either getting rid of the membership ballot (presumably by persuading the runner up to withdraw, as happened last time) or massively shortening it.
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-06-13/why-tory-members-ballot-on-boris-johnson-may-be-culled-or-truncated-writes-robert-peston/

So the PM Johnson nightmare may start sooner than expected.

I really don't think a lot of the membership would react kindly to be denied a say yet again, even if most want Johnson. Don't you think some might take the hint from May's experience anyway - not having any mandate from the members didn't help when the chips were down.

(you can argue the same for Gordon Brown, as well)

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm not a Sanders groupie but blimmin eck, comparing him with McVile is HARSH.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sajid's people say he's in it to win. Dude, why not just drop out?

Why not stay in until you are eliminated? Its about building a profile for the likes of him now.

[CumbrianLefty]

How will the pundits who have been bigging Stewart up react to that, I wonder......

[CumbrianLefty]

Well at least this means and end to the sad spectacle of "liberal" pundits fellating an otherwise bog standard Tory.

Some of them have (incredibly) moved on to Gove......

[CumbrianLefty]

Not *all* the Democratic party, just its "establishment" wing.

[CumbrianLefty]

Gove takes second place, hmmm.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson will have enjoyed arranging that result, no question

[CumbrianLefty]

One spoiled ballot.

Bet it's Stewart, Clarke, or May.

Stewart apparently denied spoiling his in today's earlier ballot.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yesterday I watched a video regarding prorogation as a way to get no deal passed.

However, there is a much simpler way to get no deal if a PM wanted. Why not just run out the clock?

Tell the EU to not give any extensions and just run out the clock. Put maybe a final "meaningful vote" on May's deal at 23:59 in the last day of before no deal. If it does not pass, it's no deal as the time has run out.

If May of all people got what, 2 days close to the deadline? Boris can easily just run out the clock on purpose.

Yes, but he doesn't get to do this in a vacuum - opponents of no deal (not least in his own party) will be trying everything possible to stop it happening.

[CumbrianLefty]

Well he has been winging it most of his adult life, mostly with success thus far.

[CumbrianLefty]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

[CumbrianLefty]

My prediction: Boris-led Tories shoot to the top of the polls. Election almost immediately. New withdraw agreement passes. Boris remains popular. No idea where this stuff about the Canadian Progressive Conservatives is coming from, it's not going to happen.

And that strikes me very much as what YOU want to happen.

I would rather No Deal Brexit happen. Although I still think it could, with pretty much everything else I predicted remaining the same.

I see, so completely delusional wishful thinking then

[CumbrianLefty]

About the same as YouGov's figures.

Still think Johnson might win by slightly less than that - maybe the comparison might be with the last contest that went to the membership, when Cameron beat Davis 67.5-32.5.

[CumbrianLefty]

That zip wire thing was a pre-prepared stunt.

Of course.....

[CumbrianLefty]

I've said this before, but now it's official: the UK has had its three worst Prime Ministers in history all serve consecutively. I'm calling that now. History will recognize this decade as the Kingdom's most embarrassing.

Really? Worse than Chamberlain & Eden?

Arguably. Chamberlain and Eden are overly criticised, Cameron unduly lauded.

Can see where Chamberlain was coming from, even if it ended unfortunately.

But Eden? Deserves all the obloquy he has recieved, and then some.