Baby Bust: US births continue their decline
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 05:59:10 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  Baby Bust: US births continue their decline
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: Baby Bust: US births continue their decline  (Read 4903 times)
Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,632
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 24, 2019, 12:47:06 PM »

https://www.apnews.com/0463abca6436472cb44176602078b24f?utm_campaign=SocialFlow&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=AP

3.788 million babies were born in the US in 2018, the lowest number since 1986, resulting in the lowest fertility rates on record.  Teen births were down 8% and record low fertility was recorded in all cohorts under 35.  Only for women in their late 30s and early 40s was there an increase.  Keep in mind these women already had more children earlier on as well.

This will put major strains on school systems as they pay to maintain aging schools built for a larger student population.  Educating each student will become more expensive in real terms.  Many suburban school systems that have never had to deal with major drops in student populations and the budget cuts and school closings that come with it will see local political fights flare up as they decide whose neighborhood school gets the ax. 

This comes at a time when the retirement of the baby boomers gathers full force and there is political pressure to reduce immigration.  Like during the 1920s as births fell and immigration all but ceased and farmers faced huge pain and pressure, much of their own making, I hope things turn out differently this time.  The risk is deflationary pressure coupled with economic stagnation.  Japan says hi!
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2019, 01:18:11 PM »


Welcome to WV!  Amusingly the state slogan is Almost Heaven!  Which I assume is supposed to refer to nature, but when your population skews extremely elderly....
Logged
The Free North
CTRattlesnake
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,567
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2019, 03:40:46 PM »

Cataclysmic news. The government needs to implement policies to reverse this ASAP lest we fall into Japanese style stagflation. Our future economic success depends on population growth and this issue should be treated like the national emergency it is.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2019, 04:14:47 PM »

Two million immigrants per year now! Four million/year by 2030.
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2019, 06:03:49 PM »

Canada lets in around 300,000-350,000 immigrants a year while having only a a tenth of the US population.  The US lets around 1 million or so. Our per capita rate is much higher. The US needs to up it to at least 2 million or so.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2019, 06:42:03 PM »

Cataclysmic news. The government needs to implement policies to reverse this ASAP lest we fall into Japanese style stagflation. Our future economic success depends on population growth and this issue should be treated like the national emergency it is.

As bad as Japanese style stagflation is, raising populations eternally is most certainly not sustainable in the long run (this applies to the US and to the entire world, it's just that developing nations have ridiculous birth rates still while the US are just barely below the ideal)

Immigration is also not a solution. It's a bandaid at best that can't really solve anything long term and has its own set of problems as well.

The only solution is to completely overhaul the economy so it is actually sustainable. How to do that of course nobody knows.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2019, 06:55:31 PM »

Cataclysmic news. The government needs to implement policies to reverse this ASAP lest we fall into Japanese style stagflation. Our future economic success depends on population growth and this issue should be treated like the national emergency it is.

As bad as Japanese style stagflation is, raising populations eternally is most certainly not sustainable in the long run (this applies to the US and to the entire world, it's just that developing nations have ridiculous birth rates still while the US are just barely below the ideal)

Immigration is also not a solution. It's a bandaid at best that can't really solve anything long term and has its own set of problems as well.

The only solution is to completely overhaul the economy so it is actually sustainable. How to do that of course nobody knows.

Also overhaul the money system so it's sustainable as well,  which might actually be the bigger problem.
Logged
Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party
DANNT
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 370


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2019, 11:24:53 PM »

ThE uS iS fUlL
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2019, 11:38:34 PM »

Good. Hopefully they go down further.

The US still has ca. a 1 million birth surplus and a lot of immigration.

Besides, a stagnation or declining population is actually something that we should strive for - so the US has a long way to go.

A growing population just leads to more capitalism, consuming and destruction of the planet.
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2019, 03:52:28 AM »

I can imagine the US TFR going down to 1.6, a lot of states are already at 1.5 and Hispanic fertility will likely continue to converge with white and black fertility. On current trends the US will slip into natural decline by around 2030, the same time China does. Hopefully we stop seeing the so called experts talk about how America has a demographic advantage compared to other countries when it clearly doesn't, America's fertility rate is now below many European nation's such as France or Denmark.
Logged
junior chįmp
Mondale_was_an_insidejob
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,396
Croatia
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2019, 03:14:16 PM »

no surprise the birth rate is going down....with Trump's ugly mug on the TV at all times, nobody can get horny anymore
Logged
Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
Enlightened_Centrist 420
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,599


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2019, 03:56:26 PM »

no surprise the birth rate is going down....with Trump's ugly mug on the TV at all times, nobody can get horny anymore

I can confirm. I've basically become asexual at this point Cry
Logged
Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,828


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2019, 05:05:22 PM »

no surprise the birth rate is going down....with Trump's ugly mug on the TV at all times, nobody can get horny anymore

I can confirm. I've basically become asexual at this point Cry

Trump is too fat to even walk anymore, even on the golf course. He drove a golf cart instead of walking with other G7 leaders, and needed Theresa May's help walking down the stairs.
Logged
PragmaticPopulist
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,234
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -7.61, S: -5.57

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 27, 2019, 08:39:00 AM »

The decline in births isn't necessarily a bad sign. A declining birthrate is actually a sign of increased education among the population.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 27, 2019, 01:22:31 PM »

The decline is pretty much across the board (Maine somehow had 10 more births than the previous year thanks to American Indian and Asian births--really).  Even the Morms are on board with substantial declines in Utah and Idaho. 
Logged
Bismarck
Chancellor
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,343


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2019, 07:38:41 AM »

I think this and nearly stagnant education levels are our two biggest long term problems. Both of these are a death knell for the smaller metros in this country
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2019, 10:38:07 PM »

If this slump in fertility is generational (i.e., late X'er/Millennial families choosing to delay marriage/childbirth) couldn't this all sort itself out with higher birthrates among the 35-45 age cohort sometime in the near future?  Basically, the median age at first-marriage has been moving later faster than older couples are popping out kids?     
Logged
Cassandra
Situationist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,673


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2019, 07:35:15 AM »

If this slump in fertility is generational (i.e., late X'er/Millennial families choosing to delay marriage/childbirth) couldn't this all sort itself out with higher birthrates among the 35-45 age cohort sometime in the near future?  Basically, the median age at first-marriage has been moving later faster than older couples are popping out kids?     

There is a reason women over 35 don't tend to have very many kids.

Anyway, this whole thing is only a problem within an economic system that demands perpetual expansion. Meanwhile, unending population growth causes ecological devastation. Socialism would solve this.
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: May 29, 2019, 08:36:59 AM »

Taking a longer term view, the US has fallen from around 4% of global births in the 1950's to 3% by 2000 to around 2.6% today. It's share of global population has come down from around 6% in 1950-1960 to 4.3% today and will continue to decline. The US  over the coming decades will increasingly resemble much of the rest of the developed world, low fertility, an ageing and old population and a shrinking one.

In terms of what impact migration can have on fertility, one issue is the main source of migrants for America today is Asia and Asian American fertility looks like it fell to around 1.5 last year, when most migrants were from Central & South america they raised overall fertility, today migrants from Asia lower overall fertility, migration will not solve the issue of declining fertility, it may exacerbate it.
Logged
Ban my account ffs!
snowguy716
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,632
Austria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: May 29, 2019, 10:46:34 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2019, 11:14:28 AM by Snowguy716 »

If this slump in fertility is generational (i.e., late X'er/Millennial families choosing to delay marriage/childbirth) couldn't this all sort itself out with higher birthrates among the 35-45 age cohort sometime in the near future?  Basically, the median age at first-marriage has been moving later faster than older couples are popping out kids?      
This happened in the 90s/2000s.  During the 70s, demographers were anticipating a giant echo-baby boom for the 80s...and it didn’t materialize.  Instead births rose gradually.  

Then they expected that women were having small families and predicted a major decline in births in the 90s.  That didn’t materialize either as baby boomer women in their 30s and early 40s had children and immigrant fertility was high.

And then even as baby boomers passed out of child bearing years after 2000, births rose as Gen X women had slightly more children culminating in a record number of births in 2007 at 4.316 million, surpassing the record 4.308 million births in 1957.  Then the numbers fell to just under 4 million by 2010, then were steady Between 3.9 and 4 million until 2017 when a more substantial decline began for 2017 and 2018.

This would seem to be the Trump baby bust more than anything.  What makes it so substantial is that the largest cohort of people in this country are those born from 1988-1993...they are now 26-31 years old.  Births should be rising...not seeing an accelerating decline.

That said the same thing happened in the 1920s and again in the early 70s.  The women in the 20th century that had the most children were born in 1933...the nadir of the depression baby bust.  And the women who hadmthe fewest were born around 1955, at the height of the baby boom and who came of age right as the oil crisis hit.
Logged
Annatar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 976
Australia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: May 29, 2019, 11:18:29 AM »

Births didn't rise from 1980's to 2007 due to Gen X, they rose due to Hispanic migration combined with high Hispanic fertility. The Hispanic TFR of 2.8 in the 2000's is what kept births at a high level, with the Hispanic TFR falling to 2.0, births have fallen as well.
Logged
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,285


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: May 29, 2019, 11:25:05 AM »

Taking a longer term view, the US has fallen from around 4% of global births in the 1950's to 3% by 2000 to around 2.6% today. It's share of global population has come down from around 6% in 1950-1960 to 4.3% today and will continue to decline. The US  over the coming decades will increasingly resemble much of the rest of the developed world, low fertility, an ageing and old population and a shrinking one.

In terms of what impact migration can have on fertility, one issue is the main source of migrants for America today is Asia and Asian American fertility looks like it fell to around 1.5 last year, when most migrants were from Central & South america they raised overall fertility, today migrants from Asia lower overall fertility, migration will not solve the issue of declining fertility, it may exacerbate it.

Yes and no on immigration exacerbating declining fertility. I would like to see some data on whether Chinese, Korean, etc. immigrants actually have fewer kids than "native" Americans - I suspect that they have more. Migration from one country to another itself is something ordinarily undertaken by a certain type of person with characteristics that tend towards higher birthrates.

Also, a large and growing portion of the immigrants to the U.S. from Asia are from countries with relatively high birthrates, like India, the Philippines and Vietnam. It's not like most Asian immigrants to the U.S. are from Japan.
Logged
DINGO Joe
dingojoe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,700
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: May 29, 2019, 12:39:42 PM »

Despite the decline in birthrates for some time now, there's been a steady increase in the number of foster care children

https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/afcarsreport25.pdf
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,681
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: May 29, 2019, 12:42:08 PM »

Despite the decline in birthrates for some time now, there's been a steady increase in the number of foster care children

https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/afcarsreport25.pdf

And even with a dropping abortion rate. This is really weird. Pregnancies, abortions, and births are falling and somehow this is happening.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,711
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: May 29, 2019, 02:13:57 PM »

Despite the decline in birthrates for some time now, there's been a steady increase in the number of foster care children

https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/cb/afcarsreport25.pdf

And even with a dropping abortion rate. This is really weird. Pregnancies, abortions, and births are falling and somehow this is happening.

Opioid crisis.  Meth-addicts don't make good parents.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.045 seconds with 12 queries.