Baby Bust: US births continue their decline (user search)
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  Baby Bust: US births continue their decline (search mode)
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Author Topic: Baby Bust: US births continue their decline  (Read 5008 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,318


« on: May 29, 2019, 11:25:05 AM »

Taking a longer term view, the US has fallen from around 4% of global births in the 1950's to 3% by 2000 to around 2.6% today. It's share of global population has come down from around 6% in 1950-1960 to 4.3% today and will continue to decline. The US  over the coming decades will increasingly resemble much of the rest of the developed world, low fertility, an ageing and old population and a shrinking one.

In terms of what impact migration can have on fertility, one issue is the main source of migrants for America today is Asia and Asian American fertility looks like it fell to around 1.5 last year, when most migrants were from Central & South america they raised overall fertility, today migrants from Asia lower overall fertility, migration will not solve the issue of declining fertility, it may exacerbate it.

Yes and no on immigration exacerbating declining fertility. I would like to see some data on whether Chinese, Korean, etc. immigrants actually have fewer kids than "native" Americans - I suspect that they have more. Migration from one country to another itself is something ordinarily undertaken by a certain type of person with characteristics that tend towards higher birthrates.

Also, a large and growing portion of the immigrants to the U.S. from Asia are from countries with relatively high birthrates, like India, the Philippines and Vietnam. It's not like most Asian immigrants to the U.S. are from Japan.
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Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,318


« Reply #1 on: June 04, 2019, 01:08:08 PM »

I think this and nearly stagnant education levels are our two biggest long term problems. Both of these are a death knell for the smaller metros in this country

Smaller metros are not monolithic. Some (like The Villages and Myrtle Beach) are growing very fast. Some aren't.

Aren't those retirement meccas?  I mean with the Boomers hitting 65 in droves you'd expect those to grow.

Those two are (though Myrtle Beach's growth is probably more complex than just retirement). But the are other small metros that are growing due to non-retirement reasons. I doubt many retirees are moving to Midland or Odessa, TX, for example.

Midland and Odessa have problematic long-term prospects for other reasons. Just ask West Virginia.

But, in any case, there are always going to be counterexamples in a sample of hundreds. Pointing to a few counterexamples to a clear overall trend isn't that helpful.
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