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  What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again? (search mode)
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Author Topic: What would we have to do to make WV and AR competetive again?  (Read 910 times)
AN63093
63093
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E: 0.06, S: 2.17

« on: May 25, 2019, 05:30:44 pm »
« edited: May 25, 2019, 05:35:05 pm by AN63093 »

Pretty much how do we flip the south?

This is a different question than the topic question ("What would we have to do to make WV and AR competitive again?")  Which one are you interested in discussing?

The answer to the first Q (how do we flip the south), that is already underway (or has already happened in some states).  VA has flipped, NC and FL are competitive, GA is probably going to flip in either 2020 or 2024, and TX is trending D and could flip in the next 20 years.  MD and DE never went R, if you count them as Southern states (I do, many others don't).  It's not the entire South, sure, but Dems are already competitive in a large part of it and the most EV-heavy states.

Your second question (how to make WV/AR competitive again), is somewhat nonsensical.  WV and AR were never really "competitive" states, they were solid D states and then flipped.  AR especially, was a one-party state for most of American history.  At really no point in US history could it be said to be a "competitive" state, where both parties had a legitimate shot at winning it.  Maybe 2000, but that's really it, and I'm not even sure about that.

If really what you're asking is what would have to happen for WV/AR to become D states again- a realignment where the demographics in those states become part of the D base again.  

If you're looking for a Southern state that is likely to flip D (and perhaps surprisingly so, to some people), what you want to look for is MS, not WV and AR.  There is already a thread on that discussing it extensively, but the long and short of it is- there is a long-term demographics problem there for the GOP that isn't hard to discover and will soon become pretty apparent, maybe as early as the 2030s.
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AN63093
63093
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 866


Political Matrix
E: 0.06, S: 2.17

« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2019, 10:58:50 am »
« Edited: May 28, 2019, 11:04:00 am by AN63093 »

Repeal the Civil Rights Act, along with a constitutional amendment or two.

Yes, clearly the 1964 Civil Rights Act is what caused Arkansas and West Virginia to become red states in the 2000s...

The question is about what would make them competitive again, not how they ceased to be competitive in the first place. Of course it's a bit of a nonsense question, for reasons AN69 describes in their post above.

Regarding which post, incidentally, I see no reason for Democrats to be sanguine about Mississippi. The state's black population is stagnant, it has a particularly high rural population share, it has no large metros, and it has about the lowest educational attainment in the country. Moreover, if there's one part of the country in which Democrats are unlikely to win over the kind of downscale white voters whom they've been losing in greater numbers since the '90s, it's the Deep South.

I don't want to derail this thread, so I'll primarily just refer back to my post above which has a link to a thread that goes in much, much more detail and has some good analysis within.. I'd invite you to review that thread.  The one sentence summary is- none of those factors you mention are relevant, because growth is so low in MS and the GOP vote consists of mostly white seniors which will soon be outnumbered by the black vote such that it becomes mathematically impossible for the GOP to win there.  This is, obviously, assuming the GOP continues to decisively lose the black vote, but I see no reason to not believe that will continue to be the case.
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