Why do people always write that the 2018 wave...

[Epaminondas]

...was "nothing" like the 2010 one?

The bottom line is the number of seats won.
In the Senate, that was
2010: 24 vs 13
2018: 22 vs 11

In the House it was

2010: 242 vs 193
2018: 235 vs 199

Functionally, that is exactly the same. The swing is a product of the 2012 overperformance by Obama coattails, not an actual marker of performance by today's Republicans.

I'd like to ask a question to GOPers here: if in 2012 Obama had lost the 5 purple Senate seats FL, IN, MO, ND, MT, would 2018 now be considered a "wave" with exactly the same results (but a +3 Senate on paper)?

[DaWN]

My theory is that because in the 8 years between them the world (and especially the US) became much more polarised and stuck into the internet echo chamber. Consequently, neither side would have been willing to admit defeat no matter what the result. Even if for whatever reason the Dems had broken even or gained in the Senate, GOPers would have pointed to some other failure. If the Dems had failed to win the House they would have pointed to gains elsewhere etc. All part of today's internet orientated politics I think.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It was an irony, 2016, we thought Garland would set in motion a Democratic gerrymandering for 2020; however, Trump approvals made Democratic gains in the House substantial enough for Dems to keep the House after 2020.  John Roberts replaced Anthony Kennedy on SCOTUS as the swing compassionate conservative vote. Nullifying the Kavanaugh vote, making it still 4-4-1 swing. Democratic election initiatives: are still possible under John Roberts: since he nullified the WI voter ID laws, the swing state of the election. Giving the state to Evers and eventually to Joe Biden.

That's what the Democratic wave brought in 2018, a silver lining to Clinton's defeat in 2016 for Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

Because [some] people lazily analyze just the gains and losses that the parties make and don't look at the context or situation of the election (Democrats having all but 8 seats in Senate class 1!).

For instance, the 2010 wave was the perfect storm to get 63 gains for Republicans because you had a Democratic tsunami after the recession and a Republican president's approval at 25% 2 years before it. 2014 was pretty similar but Republicans already had a good majority so they only gained 13.

[pbrower2a]

Republicans made gains in the Senate on the whole. There were several possible D losses, and the Republicans won most of those, but rather few possible D pickups.

So suppose that the Democrats win the Presidency in 2000, keep a hold on the House, and manage to win the Senate. (Republican holds on Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina either are or are getting shaky). Republicans usually pick up House seats in a midterm following a Democratic win of the Presidency, and I would expect much the same in 2022. But what if the Republicans on the whole lose some Senate seats in 2022 (most likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while picking up no more than one Senate seat? Is that a wave?

No -- just unequal opportunity based on the electoral classes of the Senate.   

[Orser67]

With respect to Congress they are fairly comparable, with the main difference being that Democrats had an awful Senate map in 2018. Democrats actually did better in the nationwide popular vote for members of the House of Representatives.

But the 2010 elections were far better for Republicans in state elections. After the 2010 elections, Republicans had 21 trifectas (unified control of the executive and legislative branch) compared to 11 for Democrats. After the 2018 elections, Democrats had 14 trifectas, while Republicans had 23. Now, various factors are at play there, and that's not taking the population of each state into consideration. But the fact remains that Republicans retained control of a lot of state legislatures and governorships and Democrats, relatively speaking, didn't.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Republicans made gains in the Senate on the whole. There were several possible D losses, and the Republicans won most of those, but rather few possible D pickups.

So suppose that the Democrats win the Presidency in 2000, keep a hold on the House, and manage to win the Senate. (Republican holds on Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina either are or are getting shaky). Republicans usually pick up House seats in a midterm following a Democratic win of the Presidency, and I would expect much the same in 2022. But what if the Republicans on the whole lose some Senate seats in 2022 (most likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while picking up no more than one Senate seat? Is that a wave?

No -- just unequal opportunity based on the electoral classes of the Senate.   

If a Democrat wins the 2020 Presidential Election, 2022 will look a lot like 2010.

How so? There just are not that many vulnerable Democratic seats up.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Republicans made gains in the Senate on the whole. There were several possible D losses, and the Republicans won most of those, but rather few possible D pickups.

So suppose that the Democrats win the Presidency in 2000, keep a hold on the House, and manage to win the Senate. (Republican holds on Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina either are or are getting shaky). Republicans usually pick up House seats in a midterm following a Democratic win of the Presidency, and I would expect much the same in 2022. But what if the Republicans on the whole lose some Senate seats in 2022 (most likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while picking up no more than one Senate seat? Is that a wave?

No -- just unequal opportunity based on the electoral classes of the Senate.   

If a Democrat wins the 2020 Presidential Election, 2022 will look a lot like 2010.

How so? There just are not that many vulnerable Democratic seats up.

They're are a good amount of toss ups in the House of Representatives. Whenever the president has a trifecta of their party for the first two years of their presidency, they usually lose that trifecta in the midterms. The Republicans would probably take back the House of Representatives to resist and Democratic president. This has happened with the past two presidents. From 2009 to 2011 Obama had a Democratic Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2010 midterms. From 2017 to 2019 Trump has a Republican Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2018 midterms.

I should clarify, I was talking about Democratic seats in the senate.

[Corbyn is (no longer) the leader of the Labour Party]

Republicans made gains in the Senate on the whole. There were several possible D losses, and the Republicans won most of those, but rather few possible D pickups.

So suppose that the Democrats win the Presidency in 2000, keep a hold on the House, and manage to win the Senate. (Republican holds on Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina either are or are getting shaky). Republicans usually pick up House seats in a midterm following a Democratic win of the Presidency, and I would expect much the same in 2022. But what if the Republicans on the whole lose some Senate seats in 2022 (most likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while picking up no more than one Senate seat? Is that a wave?

No -- just unequal opportunity based on the electoral classes of the Senate.   

If a Democrat wins the 2020 Presidential Election, 2022 will look a lot like 2010.

How so? There just are not that many vulnerable Democratic seats up.

They're are a good amount of toss ups in the House of Representatives. Whenever the president has a trifecta of their party for the first two years of their presidency, they usually lose that trifecta in the midterms. The Republicans would probably take back the House of Representatives to resist and Democratic president. This has happened with the past two presidents. From 2009 to 2011 Obama had a Democratic Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2010 midterms. From 2017 to 2019 Trump has a Republican Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2018 midterms.

I should clarify, I was talking about Democratic seats in the senate.

The Democrats may still hold the Senate in 2022. The Democrats held the Senate in 2010 and lost it in 2014. If this pattern repeats, Republicans will take the House in 2022 and take back the Senate in 2026. 2026 will be a repeat of 2014.

I could see this happening. But, it would require another Dem victory in 2024.

[R.P. McM]

Republicans made gains in the Senate on the whole. There were several possible D losses, and the Republicans won most of those, but rather few possible D pickups.

So suppose that the Democrats win the Presidency in 2000, keep a hold on the House, and manage to win the Senate. (Republican holds on Senate seats in Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina either are or are getting shaky). Republicans usually pick up House seats in a midterm following a Democratic win of the Presidency, and I would expect much the same in 2022. But what if the Republicans on the whole lose some Senate seats in 2022 (most likely Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) while picking up no more than one Senate seat? Is that a wave?

No -- just unequal opportunity based on the electoral classes of the Senate.    

If a Democrat wins the 2020 Presidential Election, 2022 will look a lot like 2010.

How so? There just are not that many vulnerable Democratic seats up.

They're are a good amount of toss ups in the House of Representatives. Whenever the president has a trifecta of their party for the first two years of their presidency, they usually lose that trifecta in the midterms. The Republicans would probably take back the House of Representatives to resist and Democratic president. This has happened with the past two presidents. From 2009 to 2011 Obama had a Democratic Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2010 midterms. From 2017 to 2019 Trump has a Republican Trifecta. He lost that trifecta in the 2018 midterms.

I should clarify, I was talking about Democratic seats in the senate.

The Democrats may still hold the Senate in 2022. The Democrats held the Senate in 2010 and lost it in 2014. If this pattern repeats, Republicans will take the House in 2022 and take back the Senate in 2026. 2026 will be a repeat of 2014.

I think it's increasingly unlikely — and more unlikely after 2020 — that Republicans control the House or Democrats control the Senate. At some point, we're headed for a scenario in which Democrats have an entrenched majority in the House, and the Senate, like the Supreme Court, is no longer a legitimate, democratic body.