Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

So, the big question now is...considering the amount of fire he's getting and is still to get by September, will Liberman recommend bibi again to the president? if not that's going to be huge.

It obviously depends on the size of the victory for Likud, assuming that the Likud actually comes out on top. If it's something similar to what we saw in April or think there will be a massive push (putsch?) even on the right to find another Likudnik and move past Netanyahu. There are already stirrings of this within the Likud, the Haredim are talking about not recommending Bibi, and obviously it is Bibi who is keeping the right from a unity government with Blue and White and anyone else. He's quite a political millstone.  But more than any of that, if his indictment is now pretty much for sure happening, then what's the point of of going through all of this just to get a government for a year or whatever before he goes to prison and new elections are called? So I don't pretend to know how well the right/left will do, but I think there's a pretty high likelihood that Netanyahu is done no matter what.

[jaichind]

What does Netanyahu expect to change in this next election ? I assume he is thinking that there might be a majority for Likud + Religious parties + United Right ?  What if New Right gets in this time? Will they join a Netanyahu government? Is so I can see the  Netanyahu  strategy working.

[Walmart_shopper]

Shmulie Itzhik is running for Labor leader, which is fantastic. I wonder if Stav Shaffir or, more likely, Amir Peretz challenge him.

[Hnv1]

Shmulie Itzhik is running for Labor leader, which is fantastic. I wonder if Stav Shaffir or, more likely, Amir Peretz challenge him.

absolutely mellow knob.

[DavidB.]

What does Netanyahu expect to change in this next election ? I assume he is thinking that there might be a majority for Likud + Religious parties + United Right ?  What if New Right gets in this time? Will they join a Netanyahu government? Is so I can see the  Netanyahu  strategy working.

Yes, that seems to be his intention: 61 seats for right-religious parties without YB. If only YB had gotten 4 and Kulanu 5 in April, all of this nonsense would have been prevented...

Seems as if Shaked will be running for Likud, which means reaching the threshold will be an uphill battle for Bennett and New Right. The New Right wouldn't nearly be as insistent on ending the draft exemption for Haredim and would be an easier partner for Netanyahu and the Haredim than YB purely in this respect (as would Zehut, probably).

Also wondering whether the Likud-Kulanu merger wouldn't lead to additional Kulanu voters moving to B&W.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Israel please please wake get rid of Bibi, you are better than this. I won’t hold my breath though.

Why do you think we're better than this? Bibi is exactly what our banana republic deserves.

The beautiful thing is that a Moldovan Putinist who relies on racist political themes actually ended up saving us from Bibi anyway. Thanks, Yvette.

Because Israel has had good leaders, and many good people, and has served many worthy causes around the world, and brought forth some of the finest technology from that part of the world, they are not cavemen who just want to be jerks like Bibi. I just wish they would wake up from this trance and get a good leader in there.

[DC Al Fine]

Because fundamentally voters are right. It is up to politicians to build a coalition.

Can't say I agree with this tbh. I don't think voters who elected Trump are right, and I definitely don't think voters who are voting for a theocratic coalition promising to make the Knesset a criminal protection site are right. It's up to each person to decide.

I don't mean it in that way (I certainly don't think Swedish and Spanish voters were right). What I mean is that politicians ought to work with the result that the people deliver. They shouldn't just be able to say "we can't deal with this result, let's do this election again" as if it's the people who made a mistake, not politicians. They should simply respect the outcome of the election and build a coalition.

Agreed. Elections six months after the last are quite irritating. At least try and form a tentative government for a while, even if it will inevitably fall in a year or two.

[Famous Mortimer]

Hey, new elections mean Orly Levy can be on the Likud or Blue and White list now, right?

[Hnv1]

First polls show YB gaining, Likud-Kulano basically at a standstill, Labour almost at the threshold. No majority for the Right without YB

[Hnv1]

Hey, new elections mean Orly Levy can be on the Likud or Blue and White list now, right?

Yes. But I don’t see any reason either would want her. She’s hardly worth her own seat right now

[Vosem]

Wow. That Kishinev madman actually did it. Amazing.

Definitely supporting Yisrael Beiteinu this time around.

[bigic]

First polls show YB gaining, Likud-Kulano basically at a standstill, Labour almost at the threshold. No majority for the Right without YB

What are the seat numbers?

[jaichind]

I have to imagine Netanyahu's election strategy would be: A vote for YB is a vote for B&W which is a vote for Labor which is a vote for the Arabs.  And to counter this  Lieberman has to counterattack by ramping up his majoritarian appeal.

[bigic]

I have to imagine Netanyahu's election strategy would be: A vote for YB is a vote for B&W which is a vote for Labor which is a vote for the Arabs.

🤔

[Horus]

Israel please please wake get rid of Bibi, you are better than this. I won’t hold my breath though.

Why do you think we're better than this? Bibi is exactly what our banana republic deserves.

The beautiful thing is that a Moldovan Putinist who relies on racist political themes actually ended up saving us from Bibi anyway. Thanks, Yvette.

Because Israel has had good leaders, and many good people, and has served many worthy causes around the world, and brought forth some of the finest technology from that part of the world, they are not cavemen who just want to be jerks like Bibi. I just wish they would wake up from this trance and get a good leader in there.

Unlike most other nations, Israel is going backwards. They have a huge reverse age gap with Bibi getting something like 70% of the under 25 vote.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Shmulie Itzhik is running for Labor leader, which is fantastic. I wonder if Stav Shaffir or, more likely, Amir Peretz challenge him.

Where did you hear that?
Also, Shafir is the best we could do imo.

[danny]

What are the seat numbers?

There are a lot of polls all the time, here is a good aggregator: https://knessetjeremy.com/

In the latest poll Labour don't even come close to the threshold, they better get rid of Gabbai quickly before they disappear.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

[America Needs R'hllor]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

You don't really know anything about Labour people. In any case, as someone who actually has contact with the general public, Shmuli would be likelier to turn people off because of his socialist reputation.

And there is literally no reason to call her "a crypto-One stater". No one in Labour, and no one relevant in Meretz, even comes close to these views. You probably heard something about her once and now you obviously know all about her hidden opinions, but as someone who actually knows her, this is laughable. That is not to say that a union with Meretz won't be necessary.

[Famous Mortimer]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

You don't really know anything about Labour people. In any case, as someone who actually has contact with the general public, Shmuli would be likelier to turn people off because of his socialist reputation.

And there is literally no reason to call her "a crypto-One stater". No one in Labour, and no one relevant in Meretz, even comes close to these views. You probably heard something about her once and now you obviously know all about her hidden opinions, but as someone who actually knows her, this is laughable. That is not to say that a union with Meretz won't be necessary.

Might it be that you yourself are biased? That you are so radical, you dismiss even other radicals as insufficiently radical? I see such behavior all the time on the American left, people who attack Chapo Trap House and Jacobin magazine as "Strasserites" and "Nazbols", many such cases.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Unlike most other nations,

Oh, that that were true.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Stav Shaffir as Labor leader would definitely necessitate a Labor-Meretz joint list because they'd basically have the same exact platform and there'd be no reason for them to run separately.

She's probably also cause a fair amount of Labor people to leave the party (in the past, they might have launched a new party but now they'll probably just defect to Likud or Blue and White).

Shaffir would definitely energize the base but I don't think she has much potential to take off with the general public, significantly increase the number of seats from what Labor and Meretz already have. I know all the left-wing Israelis here will shout that I'm wrong but she's obviously a crypto-One Stater. I don't say that as a value judgement, merely as an observation. Given that, her appeal is limited

You don't really know anything about Labour people. In any case, as someone who actually has contact with the general public, Shmuli would be likelier to turn people off because of his socialist reputation.

And there is literally no reason to call her "a crypto-One stater". No one in Labour, and no one relevant in Meretz, even comes close to these views. You probably heard something about her once and now you obviously know all about her hidden opinions, but as someone who actually knows her, this is laughable. That is not to say that a union with Meretz won't be necessary.

Might it be that you yourself are biased? That you are so radical, you dismiss even other radicals as insufficiently radical? I see such behavior all the time on the American left, people who attack Chapo Trap House and Jacobin magazine as "Strasserites" and "Nazbols", many such cases.

Or... maybe you just don't know better.

[danny]

Might it be that you yourself are biased? That you are so radical, you dismiss even other radicals as insufficiently radical? I see such behavior all the time on the American left, people who attack Chapo Trap House and Jacobin magazine as "Strasserites" and "Nazbols", many such cases.

I don't know where you get the idea that Shaffir has these secret opinions that run counter what she states publicly. It certainly doesn't seem biased to me to believe that a normal Labour politician who states that she agrees with the normal Labour policy does indeed believe in that policy (and I say this as right wing Israeli who voted for the New Right).

[Walmart_shopper]

I'm a crypto-one-stater, I think. But I doubt Labor would go there until the Likud-settler apartheid alliance fully realizes their non-crypto-one-stateism in policy, which would obviously be the end the Zionism. So Labor cannot he relied on as a post-zionist party until the obvious end of Zionism, which is still a ways away.

[Zinneke]

Would a Zehut-New Right merger put off previous voters if either faction?