Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Former Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich retires from politics, won't run for the next Knesset. Great at rhetoric, her takedown of Ben Gvir's brother was glorious, but a pretty negative element of Labour politics. Current Labour list:

1. Peretz
2. Shmuli
3. Shaffir
4. Michaeli

Climbin' Merav.

Genuinely asking out of curiosity, why do you believe that she was a negative element of Labor politics?

Mostly from people who are more well-connected than me. Her public image was very respectable and I like her, but it seems pretty well-known that she used very dirty and vicious tactics to gain in-party influence and take down rivals.

[Hnv1]

Former Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich retires from politics, won't run for the next Knesset. Great at rhetoric, her takedown of Ben Gvir's brother was glorious, but a pretty negative element of Labour politics. Current Labour list:

1. Peretz
2. Shmuli
3. Shaffir
4. Michaeli

Climbin' Merav.

Genuinely asking out of curiosity, why do you believe that she was a negative element of Labor politics?

Mostly from people who are more well-connected than me. Her public image was very respectable and I like her, but it seems pretty well-known that she used very dirty and vicious tactics to gain in-party influence and take down rivals.

Peretz invented those. Anyhow, shocking politics is dirty.

Your friends dislike her because she never sucked up to the losers from the youth branch who thought they should run the party on their socialist platform from the 50’s

[America Needs R'hllor]

Former Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich retires from politics, won't run for the next Knesset. Great at rhetoric, her takedown of Ben Gvir's brother was glorious, but a pretty negative element of Labour politics. Current Labour list:

1. Peretz
2. Shmuli
3. Shaffir
4. Michaeli

Climbin' Merav.

Genuinely asking out of curiosity, why do you believe that she was a negative element of Labor politics?

Mostly from people who are more well-connected than me. Her public image was very respectable and I like her, but it seems pretty well-known that she used very dirty and vicious tactics to gain in-party influence and take down rivals.

Peretz invented those. Anyhow, shocking politics is dirty.

Your friends dislike her because she never sucked up to the losers from the youth branch who thought they should run the party on their socialist platform from the 50’s

It seemed to be a broad agreement between Shmuli, Peretz and Shaffir supporters (the latter aren't even very socialist) that her tactics were even more dirty thant Peretz's

[Hnv1]

Former Labour leader Shelly Yachimovich retires from politics, won't run for the next Knesset. Great at rhetoric, her takedown of Ben Gvir's brother was glorious, but a pretty negative element of Labour politics. Current Labour list:

1. Peretz
2. Shmuli
3. Shaffir
4. Michaeli

Climbin' Merav.

Genuinely asking out of curiosity, why do you believe that she was a negative element of Labor politics?

Mostly from people who are more well-connected than me. Her public image was very respectable and I like her, but it seems pretty well-known that she used very dirty and vicious tactics to gain in-party influence and take down rivals.

Peretz invented those. Anyhow, shocking politics is dirty.

Your friends dislike her because she never sucked up to the losers from the youth branch who thought they should run the party on their socialist platform from the 50’s

It seemed to be a broad agreement between Shmuli, Peretz and Shaffir supporters (the latter aren't even very socialist) that her tactics were even more dirty thant Peretz's

There's nothing socialists hate more than being rule by a socialist who is not their friend. Peretz is dirtier by a long mile and always compete in dirty manners, Shelly kicked Hauspater from Bet Berl and the Dror Israel lot hate her ever since.

[DavidB.]

Press conference by Amir Peretz in an hour or so, which is supposed to be "dramatic" (but it's Israel, so take it with a ton of salt). Probably about the joint list with Meretz.

[DavidB.]

Apparently it's Orly Levy joinig Labour. Even more underwhelming news.

[Hnv1]

Apparently it's Orly Levy joinig Labour. Even more underwhelming news.

Her electoral value is so small. Peretz actually believing the false myth he invented about taking right wing voters

[danny]

Orly Levy joining Labour means no union with Meretz.

[Walmart_shopper]

Apparently it's Orly Levy joinig Labour. Even more underwhelming news.

Her electoral value is so small. Peretz actually believing the false myth he invented about taking right wing voters

It is almost as though left wing voters in Israel actually want a party willing to clearly and incisively articulate the values of freedom, democracy, and inclusivity instead of impulsively ducking in a traditional self-hating, right-leaning crouch designed to make them look stronger but which actually makes them look sorrier and weaker. You can only talk about what a joke Labor is so much. But, really, it is a joke.

[Hnv1]

Apparently it's Orly Levy joinig Labour. Even more underwhelming news.

Her electoral value is so small. Peretz actually believing the false myth he invented about taking right wing voters

It is almost as though left wing voters in Israel actually want a party willing to clearly and incisively articulate the values of freedom, democracy, and inclusivity instead of impulsively ducking in a traditional self-hating, right-leaning crouch designed to make them look stronger but which actually makes them look sorrier and weaker. You can only talk about what a joke Labor is so much. But, really, it is a joke.

I think this one is on Peretz, as the majority of Labour activists wanted a joint run will Meretz. But shockingly Peretz put his ego first

[America Needs R'hllor]

My preference would be a Labour-Meretz-Gesher-Livni list. I definitely hope the pressure makes Peretz reconsider his decision not to merge with Meretz.

But in any case, what I do like in this move is that it's stealing Barak's thunder. He's absolutely morally bankrupt and should just go away.

[Walmart_shopper]

My preference would be a Labour-Meretz-Gesher-Livni list. I definitely hope the pressure makes Peretz reconsider his decision not to merge with Meretz.

But in any case, what I do like in this move is that it's stealing Barak's thunder. He's absolutely morally bankrupt and should just go away.

How does this "steal Barak's thunder?" If anything it gives cover and distraction to his Epstein problem. I actually like Orly Levy, but it is astonishing to me that the left cannot find a way to coherently and in a unified way present a compelling and credible alternative to Netanyahu's right wing clown show, ESPECIALLY in an election that seems to be rotating around issues that are where the general public largely agrees with the left and not the right.

It is incredible that Gantz, though, is emphasizing that he is actually more hawkish than Bibi and Labor is emphasizing that it is actually less moribund than it seems. Meanwhile Liberman is actually talking about the issues that Israelis care about and in that way he is outmanoevring the left at its own game.

That level of political incompetence is surreal. Liberman giftwrapped this election for the center left and the opposition is not even trying to open it.

[America Needs R'hllor]

My preference would be a Labour-Meretz-Gesher-Livni list. I definitely hope the pressure makes Peretz reconsider his decision not to merge with Meretz.

But in any case, what I do like in this move is that it's stealing Barak's thunder. He's absolutely morally bankrupt and should just go away.

How does this "steal Barak's thunder?" If anything it gives cover and distraction to his Epstein problem. I actually like Orly Levy, but it is astonishing to me that the left cannot find a way to coherently and in a unified way present a compelling and credible alternative to Netanyahu's right wing clown show, ESPECIALLY in an election that seems to be rotating around issues that are where the general public largely agrees with the left and not the right.

It is incredible that Gantz, though, is emphasizing that he is actually more hawkish than Bibi and Labor is emphasizing that it is actually less moribund than it seems. Meanwhile Liberman is actually talking about the issues that Israelis care about and in that way he is outmanoevring the left at its own game.

That level of political incompetence is surreal. Liberman giftwrapped this election for the center left and the opposition is not even trying to open it.

It's more complicated than that imo. They should probably talk more about religious-state issues- althought I'd mention they tried that many times in the past elections and it didn't exactly help, and that they'd probably not win any Lieberman voters. But the issue here is a leftist union, which won't take any votes from Likud but rather ensure that no leftist votes go below the threshold. Now, I'd prefer a Meretz-Labour-Gesher-Livni list for sure, and it annoys me that Peretz is putting his ego first while Horovits is really acting genuinely.

But Barak should go away. He's only taking center-left votes, and there was absolutely no need for his party. Yes, some thought at first that his combative style at the head of a center-left list could be a good counter to Netanyahu, but at the recent days he proved to be toxic beyond measure. He's using the same strategy as Netanyahu to brush off his issues. So I'm not ready to present a united front with him, though I'm cetrainly very disappointed that the left is refusing to unite its positive forces and is playing petty ego games.

[DavidB.]

Shaked is leading the New Right in the election. NR demand 50% of all candidates on a potential joint list with URP, and Shaked would have to lead that list.

Pretty unrealistic given that NR failed to reach the threshold last time around and some elements within URP (most importantly Otzma, though whether they will even join JH and Tekuma this time remains an open question) will be opposed to having a woman leading the list, a secular woman even. For reference, NR got about 46% of the combined URP+NR vote in the April election. I doubt NR will be willing to join an alliance if Shaked doesn't lead it, but the 50% NR candidates demand is probably not as set in stone.

If this happens and Otzma stay out of the alliance, we essentially revert to the pre-2019 GE situation except that the alliance isn't called Jewish Home anymore and the left-wing side of the party formally has its own vehicle, namely the New Right. But Otzma would probably be out. I still think that in terms of vote maximation for the right, it would make more sense for NR and Zehut to team up and for the URP to contest the election like last time, with Otzma. In the end, most Zehut voters will be fine with NR - the idea of tons of super liberal people from TLV voting for them was always a meme - and most NR voters will be sort of fine with Zehut if that means NR do get in this time. But for Bennett and Shaked this would be quite a bit of a risk, as it would be less certain for them to reach the threshold and they're also stuck with Feiglin.

[Hnv1]

Shaked is leading the New Right in the election. NR demand 50% of all candidates on a potential joint list with URP, and Shaked would have to lead that list.

Pretty unrealistic given that NR failed to reach the threshold last time around and some elements within URP (most importantly Otzma, though whether they will even join JH and Tekuma this time remains an open question) will be opposed to having a woman leading the list, a secular woman even. For reference, NR got about 46% of the combined URP+NR vote in the April election. I doubt NR will be willing to join an alliance if Shaked doesn't lead it, but the 50% NR candidates demand is probably not as set in stone.

If this happens and Otzma stay out of the alliance, we essentially revert to the pre-2019 GE situation except that the alliance isn't called Jewish Home anymore and the left-wing side of the party formally has its own vehicle, namely the New Right. But Otzma would probably be out. I still think that in terms of vote maximation for the right, it would make more sense for NR and Zehut to team up and for the URP to contest the election like last time, with Otzma. In the end, most Zehut voters will be fine with NR - the idea of tons of super liberal people from TLV voting for them was always a meme - and most NR voters will be sort of fine with Zehut if that means NR do get in this time. But for Bennett and Shaked this would be quite a bit of a risk, as it would be less certain for them to reach the threshold and they're also stuck with Feiglin.

Otzma are actually quite fine with Shaked. She also demanded they'll be a part of the URW before a merger with NR.

[DavidB.]

They're undoubtedly fine with her, but having her lead the alliance is a different matter...

[Hnv1]

They're undoubtedly fine with her, but having her lead the alliance is a different matter...

They’ll be fine with it if she makes sure they’re apart of the bloc with the 5th place.

I don’t think that’s an issue for a lot of their voters, the fraction that would care would vote Noam or Haredi, most of Otzma voters (and Kach before) came from poor Sephardi who aren’t that religious

[Famous Mortimer]

The far-right religious parties like Shaked more than Bennet, which is funny.

[Hnv1]

Desperate Barak apologized for the October 2000 shootings by the police, thus removing a significant road block in the way for a joint run with Meretz. The second big issue is Epstein though

[Walmart_shopper]

Desperate Barak apologized for the October 2000 shootings by the police, thus removing a significant road block in the way for a joint run with Meretz. The second big issue is Epstein though

Unlike Labor, both Meretz and Barak are both polling at the threshold. That kind of electoral tightwalk alone should be enough to strong-arm then into an alliance. The left cannot afford to lose a single seat and there is a real possibility of losing eight if things work out just badly enough. An alliance prevents that from happening.

[Hnv1]

Desperate Barak apologized for the October 2000 shootings by the police, thus removing a significant road block in the way for a joint run with Meretz. The second big issue is Epstein though

Unlike Labor, both Meretz and Barak are both polling at the threshold. That kind of electoral tightwalk alone should be enough to strong-arm then into an alliance. The left cannot afford to lose a single seat and there is a real possibility of losing eight if things work out just badly enough. An alliance prevents that from happening.

I suspect that by the end Labour would be the one walking near the threshold

[Hnv1]

Meretz+Barak+Shaffir is gaining momentum, Horowitz to lead the joint list. This move might finally see Labour fall under the threshold. Peretz in a desperate move is trying to get some Druze and Arab 'voters' contractors' in the Labour top 10.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz+Barak+Shaffir is gaining momentum, Horowitz to lead the joint list. This move might finally see Labour fall under the threshold. Peretz in a desperate move is trying to get some Druze and Arab 'voters' contractors' in the Labour top 10.

Shaffir is in many ways the face of the Labor future. If she leaves then it is pretty easy to read that as a prologue to the end of Labor. Frankly, it makes me sad, but after the last five years (at least) of watching lose itself I can't understand the point of a Labor party anymore. Meretz serves the political goals of the left much more clearly, Lapid will continue to wave the centrist banner of democracy and religious liberty in a way that appeals to bougie suburban moderates, and the Arab parties are increasingly a sophisticated political voice that quite effectively speaks quite articulately against the drift towards apartheid. Labor is just kind of there, and if that's all it is then I rather it just not be there at all.

[Hnv1]

Labour are going under the new threshold, calling it now

[CumbrianLefty]

Meretz+Barak+Shaffir is gaining momentum, Horowitz to lead the joint list. This move might finally see Labour fall under the threshold. Peretz in a desperate move is trying to get some Druze and Arab 'voters' contractors' in the Labour top 10.

Shaffir is in many ways the face of the Labor future. If she leaves then it is pretty easy to read that as a prologue to the end of Labor. Frankly, it makes me sad, but after the last five years (at least) of watching lose itself I can't understand the point of a Labor party anymore. Meretz serves the political goals of the left much more clearly, Lapid will continue to wave the centrist banner of democracy and religious liberty in a way that appeals to bougie suburban moderates, and the Arab parties are increasingly a sophisticated political voice that quite effectively speaks quite articulately against the drift towards apartheid. Labor is just kind of there, and if that's all it is then I rather it just not be there at all.

I know its can't really be answered exhaustively in a short post, but *why* has Israel Labour become such a dead loss?