Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

A recent Yisrael Hayom poll showed a large voter enthusiasm advantage for the non-Arab opposition parties (like Labor, Blue and White). Overall turnout was projected to be one of the lowest in years.

I have no idea whether parties are seeing that on the ground.

Considering the last repeated election - Spain 2016, saw poor turnout for the Left that failed at forming a government the first time, it's not out of the question for Bibi to have poor enthusiasm on his side. But this is Likud, and they are Masters at driving their base to the polls when the time comes. So who knows.

[Hnv1]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

A recent Yisrael Hayom poll showed a large voter enthusiasm advantage for the non-Arab opposition parties (like Labor, Blue and White). Overall turnout was projected to be one of the lowest in years.

I have no idea whether parties are seeing that on the ground.

Wealthier voters tend to vote in larger numbers, but I wouldn’t call that enthusiasm.
Interestingly the joint list might end up weaker than the separate list were in April

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AsiaElects/status/1165719222984556544

[America Needs R'hllor]

The Democratic Camp released a comprehensive and detailed "Green New Deal" plan, which includes among other things:
* Substantially reducing the number of cares on the roads (tax incentives to workers who decide to give up on a car from work; blocking the hearts of the big cities to only allow bicycles and public transportation; road tolls to cars with less than 3 passengers; a strong public transportation investment)
* Gradually moving to 100% renewable (especially solar) energy in 2050, taxes on carbon emissions and other pollutants, closing polluting factories owned by the government if it's economically workable, becoming a leading global force for environmental protection.
* Banning the import of internal combustion cars gradually until 2025 and working towards more and more electric cars.
* Changing consumption habits- reducing the use of plastic by gradually banning disposable dishes, reducing the power of the meat industry by banning live delivieries of animals and encouraging less consumption of meat; marking foodstuffs with their carbon footprints.

Overall, a very solid plan which, according to the party, will generate much more profit than it costs, and more importantly will solve the crisis which will make Israel unliveable- not just global warming, but also the fact that with the current population growth and car ownership rates, without massive changes Israel will become a hell full of smoke and traffic jams by 2050. My vote is definitely going for them by now.

[Hnv1]

Decent. Though taxation on carbon emissions is less preferable than tenders on emission quotas

[Walmart_shopper]

The Democratic Camp released a comprehensive and detailed "Green New Deal" plan, which includes among other things:
* Substantially reducing the number of cares on the roads (tax incentives to workers who decide to give up on a car from work; blocking the hearts of the big cities to only allow bicycles and public transportation; road tolls to cars with less than 3 passengers; a strong public transportation investment)
* Gradually moving to 100% renewable (especially solar) energy in 2050, taxes on carbon emissions and other pollutants, closing polluting factories owned by the government if it's economically workable, becoming a leading global force for environmental protection.
* Banning the import of internal combustion cars gradually until 2025 and working towards more and more electric cars.
* Changing consumption habits- reducing the use of plastic by gradually banning disposable dishes, reducing the power of the meat industry by banning live delivieries of animals and encouraging less consumption of meat; marking foodstuffs with their carbon footprints.

Overall, a very solid plan which, according to the party, will generate much more profit than it costs, and more importantly will solve the crisis which will make Israel unliveable- not just global warming, but also the fact that with the current population growth and car ownership rates, without massive changes Israel will become a hell full of smoke and traffic jams by 2050. My vote is definitely going for them by now.

Yeah, that's good. It is frankly surprising that given our economic and geographic challenges and blessings, Israel hasn't become a leader in smart ecology.

[Continential]

What do you think are the chances of a left-wing collation.

[Oryxslayer]

What do you think are the chances of a left-wing collation.

0% unless polls end off being way of - not unusual in Israel but...

Now the chances of a B&W led grand coalition with no Bibi? Far higher, perhaps even the most likely outcome if you think Lieberman will form a united anti-Bibi GC block with Gantz, giving  B&W a majority of the Knesset in favor of them exploring a government, and no path to a majority for Bibi.

[Walmart_shopper]

What do you think are the chances of a left-wing collation.

Pretty low.

[Hnv1]

Zehut are dropping out in exchange for a ministerial post for Feiglin and some medical cannabis reform that is happening anyhow. So basically Feiglin is dropping out and Likud will pay his debts
The promise is of course unbinding.

I believe they only had around 60K voters this time around and those votes will split between Likud-Rightward-Otzma 40-40-20%

[Famous Mortimer]

Will Zehut still appear on the ballot?

[Walmart_shopper]

Liberman and Blue and White continue to telegraph the next month so clearly that it is questionable whether the actual election results will even matter at this point, barring a shock win for the left or Bibi and the religious parties getting 61 seats. Both of those scenarios seems very unlikely. So a report this morning quoting a senior Blue and White official saying that Liberman, Likud, and Labor are the party's "natural partners," it is worth noting. From the moment the election was called it was pretty clear that that would be the next government. And now Blue and White is more or less tipping everyone off about thar fact.

The question is, of course, who will lead it. It almost certainly won't be Netanyahu. But whether it is Gantz or a moderate Likudnik like Saar is why election day will matter. Although, frankly, is there actually a meaningful political or ideological difference between Gantz and Saar? It seems like one way or another Israel will be getting a secular revolution, a less corrupt PM, and the status quo on pretty much everything else.

[Hnv1]

Will Zehut still appear on the ballot?

Technically yes, but X will be marked on their notes

[Famous Mortimer]

I suppose if Blue and White comes out ahead, Gantz can be PM for the first two years and that will give Likud time to elect a new leader to serve as PM for the following 2 years (not that the government won't collapse before then).

If Likud comes in first though (which seems likely), it's gonna be a sh!t show.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

[Oryxslayer]

I suppose if Blue and White comes out ahead, Gantz can be PM for the first two years and that will give Likud time to elect a new leader to serve as PM for the following 2 years (not that the government won't collapse before then).

If Likud comes in first though (which seems likely), it's gonna be a sh!t show.

I mean it's not unusual for the largest party to be out of power in proportional systems. But it will certainly be a sh**t show. Gantz would have a majority of the Knesset in favor of him forming a government, but those votes would be divided between Left and unity governments. Bibi can't form a govt, would immediately have to stand in court, but still may want Likud to be a stick in the mud. There are plenty of likudniks who have said they wouldn't give Bibi a third shot at power, but there are plenty who stand by him. Maybe a likud civil war? Maybe Gantz poaches MPs like Bibi did to kulanu so that he can outnumber likud? Who knows.

[Walmart_shopper]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

[Walmart_shopper]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

[Hnv1]

What would a secular revolution entail? Reform of the Chief Rabbinate? Civil marriage laws? Defunding of the Orthodox schools?

Civil and gay marriage. Marijuana legalization. Draft of Haredim. Ending funding to the religious groups increasingly present in Israeli schools. Putting secularism into the Basic Law. Allowing certain cities and neighborhoods to operate business and public transit on Saturdays. Vastly weakening the chief rabbinate. Legislating against any public gender separation. Defunding the Haredi sector. Slapping actual academic requirements on the Haredi schools that receive public funding despite not actually teaching anything.

All of which have at least 60 percent support in the public, so Likud won't need to be convinced much to support these measures.

Not going to happen. will happen in baby steps regardless or maybe even inspite of B&W. LOL. Doubt it. Not going to happen. Perhaps. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen. Not going to happen.

Sorry but Likud will never lead a secular revolution, B&W are really the defenders of secularism, and Lieberman is all talk but he will never do anything. Plus this government would be so short lived no one would want to upset the Haredi.

There is actually no reason for these things not to happen. A large and growing majority of voters and even Likud members support these reforms. The only people who do not support them are the Haredim, and as a general rule in Israeli politics offending the Haredim is good and not bad politics. Bibi's grip on power is dependent upon them, which explains his fealty. But in today's Israel it is recognized that you either join the Haredim or you beat them, and nobody wants to join them.

In any case, this secularization is happening with the Haredim in power. If they lose a place in government there is literally nothing stopping the legislation of these laws and an acceleration of secularization.

A lot of items of there don’t have the uniform support of B&W voters let alone Likud voters. Drafting Haredi will never happen and it’s a good thing

[America Needs R'hllor]

By the way, the chances of a 61 Likud-religious government are real, and definitely not comparable to the non-existent chance of a leftist win. They're not that far away from that. So I'd not be too confident before all the results are in.

[Oryxslayer]

By the way, the chances of a 61 Likud-religious government are real, and definitely not comparable to the non-existent chance of a leftist win. They're not that far away from that. So I'd not be too confident before all the results are in.

Oh of course, Israeli polls are expected to be a bit off for the final result. But I'm reasonably confident that the order of govt likelihood is: No majority for Bibi and divided B&W govt majority (Unity route), Likud+Religious Govt, Left+Arab Majority.

[crals]

Where do the Arab parties and population stand regarding secularization?

[Famous Mortimer]

I think if Likud comes in first and Blue and White second but there's no majority for the right, Likud will split. The only question is whether the pro-Netanyahu or anti-Netanyahu faction gets to be called Likud.

[Walmart_shopper]

Where do the Arab parties and population stand regarding secularization?

Generally they are for it, although the more religious factions of the Joint List might balk at lgbt rights. Most Arabs do oppose civil marriage, though, since it could also strip Christian and Muslim authorities of wideapread authority over marital status (and Arabs oppose intermarriage with Jews, in any case). But in Israeli politics the divide is almost entirely oriented around Jewish Orthodox religious hegemony in Israeli public life, which obviously any Christian or Muslim would oppose. The vast majority of Israelis are not religious Jews, so it makes for a solid bloc against that religious hegemony.