Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

Trouble is how can a non-likud, non-haredi government even form? It's not like Lieberman and the Arabs can realistically be in the same government.

I don't think that Likud would really hesitate much to drop Bibi and join a secularist national unity governement. Support for Netanyahu is very soft in his party. The Likud doesn't like to play junior partner, but a rotation or a non-Bibi Likud PM is probably the most likely outcome next month. So no more Netanyahu, revolutionary changes in religion and state, and the (admittedly unbearable) statua quo in security and Palestinian issues (although few are as patient with Hamas as Netanyahu, so we'll see).

[Former President tack50]

Would a pure minority government work in Israel? As in, a B&W or Likud only government that tries to get everyone else to support them on a case by case basis?

[Walmart_shopper]

Would a pure minority government work in Israel? As in, a B&W or Likud only government that tries to get everyone else to support them on a case by case basis?

Not unless the largest party really is large. Polls show the largest parties at 30 seats each, which is a mere quarter of all Knesset seats. Even together they're only at half. Israeli politics are so fragmentary that a single party simply cannot govern alone. But, theoretically, BW can get, say, 50 seats and pretty easily run a minority government. But without 40 to 50 seats there isn't really a mandate for it.

[LabourJersey]

Who would be the likely people to head a secular national unity gov't assuming Bibi is gone? Would it be Lieberman, Gantz or some other person (I don't know too much about Israeli politicians).

Also a read from Wikipedia suggests that Lieberman is more hawkish than Bibi -- is that true?

[Famous Mortimer]

Last time Blue and White were just going to offer to make Sa'ar Prime Minister and see if any other Likudniks voted for him. They could go through with that plan.

Alternatively, how soon could Likud hold leadership elections if Bibi agreed to step down in the face of a hung parliament?

Could there be a caretaker government headed by Bibi, Sa'ar, and someone else while Likud elects a new Prime Minister?

Would Blue and White be willing to back a Likud Prime Minister who was a proxy for Bibi but not Bibi?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Got told about the alliance/vote sharing agreement by my relatives there, now everyone in my family is united behind the Joint List.

Question is if Labor-Gesher and the Dem- Union could do the same and form an alliance of some sort

[Oryxslayer]

Got told about the alliance/vote sharing agreement by my relatives there, now everyone in my family is united behind the Joint List.

Question is if Labor-Gesher and the Dem- Union could do the same and form an alliance of some sort

If you go back a few pages, (we discussed such a scenario) I think you will see that the four way left alliance has little chance of occuring. Maybe a surplus vote deal like what B&W and Lieberman have, (checking wiki it says such a thing already exists) but I think a full alliance is dead.

[Walmart_shopper]

Who would be the likely people to head a secular national unity gov't assuming Bibi is gone? Would it be Lieberman, Gantz or some other person (I don't know too much about Israeli politicians).

Also a read from Wikipedia suggests that Lieberman is more hawkish than Bibi -- is that true?

Liberman is significantly more hawkish than Bibi. Bibi is a shin-kicker who will do provocative and dumb things like annex Area C settlement blocs, but he is actually extremely averse to war and conflict. Gantz, for example, has campaigned as much more of a hawk. Liberman is sonewhat of an enigma because he talks like a Jewish Attilah the Hun, but whenever in a position of real political authority he is rather prudent.

The most likely next PM is either Gantz, a modetate Likudnik like Gideon Saar, or some kind of a Gantz-Likud rotation. I sense that people don't adequately appreciate how unlikely it is that Netanyahu will be PM unless the polls are way off.

[Hnv1]

Would a pure minority government work in Israel? As in, a B&W or Likud only government that tries to get everyone else to support them on a case by case basis?

Define “work”? As long as it defeats no confidence votes, i.e. having a majority of 61 or ensuring that there is no majority bigger than their own in each specific vote, a minority government could work (Rabin has one during 1995). Would it be tenable for 4 years? No

[America Needs R'hllor]

Got told about the alliance/vote sharing agreement by my relatives there, now everyone in my family is united behind the Joint List.

Question is if Labor-Gesher and the Dem- Union could do the same and form an alliance of some sort

If you go back a few pages, (we discussed such a scenario) I think you will see that the four way left alliance has little chance of occuring. Maybe a surplus vote deal like what B&W and Lieberman have, (checking wiki it says such a thing already exists) but I think a full alliance is dead.

No, that's different. He means a vote-sharing alliance like the one Yisrael Beiteinu and KL, which is mostly a formality. An alliance such as that is possible and necessary.

[Oryxslayer]

Interesting article from CNN on why Trump so far isn't intervening to save Bibi this time around.

[Velasco]

Interesting article from CNN on why Trump so far isn't intervening to save Bibi this time around.

With Trump everything is possible and there's still time to rescue Bibi

With a month to go until Israel's elections, Trump may yet decide to intervene. Since a Netanyahu victory would be seen by Trump as a win for him, the President may well be inclined to do what he can. Options include a proposal for a US-Israel defense accord, a Trump visit to Israel to visit Jerusalem and/or the Golan Heights, an 11th hour Netanyahu visit to Washington or US support for annexation of part of the West Bank. 

Bibi can make some statements on Greenland in support of Trump, or something

[Walmart_shopper]

Interesting article from CNN on why Trump so far isn't intervening to save Bibi this time around.

That's because nobody expected a second election and Trump played all of his cards laat time around. I'm not sure that there is anything Trump can do, short of launching a war on Iran, that wpuld meaningfully benefit Bibi.

[Velasco]

Bibi is campaigning on further territorial expansion in the West Bank, FT reports

https://www.ft.com/content/4733a384-be72-11e9-b350-db00d509634e?fbclid=IwAR1AaI8kFnY02fJvKhfZq2RGTf8QtT18r-4BT3vrLUlqh9NWcQ0jAmrk0LA

In the midst of his toughest election campaign yet, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a detour to the occupied West Bank. His destination was the Jewish settlement of Beit El, fenced off from the Palestinian city of Ramallah by huge concrete walls and a place long considered illegal by the international community.
 

Bibi says his transcendental mission is to "establish the Jewish people in its lands" and deepening "our roots in any part of it". He has replaced Iran and the threat from the left (lol) by the "incendiary issue" of the illegal settlements to rally the rightwing vote.

Never give Bibi up for dead

[Oryxslayer]

Haaretz piece on Odeh potentially open to working with Gantz in govt. Its what one would expect: Odeh demanding investment in Arab communities and ending occupation moves, some members of the joint list disagreeing to work with Israeli parties out of principal, B&W saying that they would refuse to even consider working with parties opposed to the Jewish state, and Likud trying to tie the two opposition groups together. The real importance of this article is the subtext in my eyes. Odeh knows that B&W won't work with them in any scenario, but he like Lieberman thinks getting rid of Bibi is a goal worthy of cooperating for. If the polls are right, the joint list laying down their votes for B&W gives Gantz a majority of the Knesset in favor of him exploring a government, when considering Lieberman's recent actions. That would more or less start a ticking clock for Likud to join a unity govt in some form...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What are the opposition parties stance on the Nation State Law?

[Walmart_shopper]

What are the opposition parties stance on the Nation State Law?

The Arabs and left wing parties really, really don't like it. Liberman voted for it. And Blue and White has an awfully confused position on it (and probably everything else, too). Officially they want rewrite the racist pile of trash, but the original author of the law is a Blue and White MK. So that's awkward. I suspect that the Yesh Atid faction leans towards trashing it because they don't much appreciate the Jewishness of the law, and the Yaalon and Gantz faction loves it except for its failure to safeguard the mythical pink unicorn of a "Jewish and Democratic state."

In any case, even within the Likud there is some regret about the clumsiness of the bill, so there is a real chance to change it.

[Hnv1]

What are the opposition parties stance on the Nation State Law?

Joint list and Meretz are against, Labour voted against but I know not everyone was against in principal. B&W has a mix, from those against to those who literally drafted it (mainly in Telem)

[Famous Mortimer]

The "keep but modify" position advocated by some in Blue and White and Labor usually involves adding an extra clause that it's also the nation state of Israeli Druze.

[Walmart_shopper]

The "keep but modify" position advocated by some in Blue and White and Labor usually involves adding an extra clause that it's also the nation state of Israeli Druze.

Or it emphasizes the idea that Israel is to be a "Jewish and democratic state." I have no clue what that actually means, but it is one of the founding principles of the state and to omit it from the nation state law is embarrassing and stupid.

[Hnv1]

The "keep but modify" position advocated by some in Blue and White and Labor usually involves adding an extra clause that it's also the nation state of Israeli Druze.

Or it emphasizes the idea that Israel is to be a "Jewish and democratic state." I have no clue what that actually means, but it is one of the founding principles of the state and to omit it from the nation state law is embarrassing and stupid.

No it’s not. It’s a great myth, Jewish and Democratic was a compromise in one of the late draft the Basic Law: liberty and dignity, so Mafdal would vote for.
See Aloni’s book from 2008

[Vosem]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

[Oryxslayer]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Is it though... Israel is a incredibly tribalistic society and thanks to all the shared tickets, this election has consolidated beautifully into the 'six israels' that have always been there under the surface. In part this is because money is a concern for a repeat election, so alliances were forged with like-minded parties to save on resources.

There is the Tel Aviv Israel (B&W) that is known as the startup nation. There is the security Israel (Likud & Lieberman) that is a constantly militarized camp against their insurgent population. There is the kibbutznick and Historical Israel (Dem & Lab) that is on full view for tourists, but is no longer as prominent as it once was. There is Arab Israel (Joint List), a religiously diverse nation that dreams of resolving the west bank crisis. There is Religious Israel (UTJ & Shas) that holds fast to the Jewishness of the Jewish state, and the traditions it allows. There is Settler Israel (Yamina) know there is only one way that the Palestinian crisis will end, with annexation and Jewish towns in the east.

Voters therefore wouldn't be moving that much, especially with the election still a few weeks out. A voter can move between two similar tents, but not between something like Kibbtz and Settler Israel. Therefore, turnout is the only thing that really changes the polls results.

[Hnv1]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

[Walmart_shopper]

It seems like there's a lot of herding going on here; virtually all the polls only differ from each other by 2-3 seats or so.

Pollsters have no idea what’s happening. This election will be decided on turnout

A recent Yisrael Hayom poll showed a large voter enthusiasm advantage for the non-Arab opposition parties (like Labor, Blue and White). Overall turnout was projected to be one of the lowest in years.

I have no idea whether parties are seeing that on the ground.