1992: bush declines to run for reelection

[WalterMitty]

with a dismal economy and poor approval ratings, president george h.w. bush decided in december 1991 to not for run for reelection in 1992.

vice president quayle immediately entered the race.  at first he is unchallenged.  however, senior republicans begin to look behind the scenes to find a candidate that would beat quayle in the primaries.  it is believed that if quayle is nominated, he will surely lose in the general election.

after much behind the scenes pleading, republicans are successful in getting new hampshire senator warren rudman to enter the race.  rudman is 62 years old and has served in the senate since 1980.  he is known as a fierce deficit hawk.

rudman has no problems in squashing the quayle candidacy.

rudman selects chairman of the joint chiefs, colin powell as his running mate.

how would a rudman/powell vs. clinton/ gore race shape up?

[WalterMitty]

rudman/powell: 51%, 280 EVs
clinton/gore:  48%, 258 EVs

ross perot does not enter the race, but instead endorses ruman because of his committment to paying down the national debt.

[True Democrat]

Clinton would have played the Southern candidate card more.  Something like this, though it would be very close:

Texas might be a long shot, but it was pretty Democratic back then, the Republican was from the North:

[Lincoln Republican]

With Clinton on the ticket, the Democrats are more successful in the south than the Republicans would have liked.  As well, Rudman's renown as a deficit cutter goes over well in some traditionally Democratic areas.  Rudman's reputation attracts many conservative minded Democrats , this, with Powell's presence on the ticket attracts many independents.

The result, a dead heat, to be decided in the United States House of Representatives. 

Rudman/Powell          269
Clinton/Gore               269

[Yates]

Walter Mitty's analysis seems accurate to me.

[Speed of Sound]

Walter Mitty's analysis seems accurate to me.

Welcome!

[Yates]

Walter Mitty's analysis seems accurate to me.

Welcome!

Thank you.

[The Duke]

Rudman wins.

[bullmoose88]

Clinton would have played the Southern candidate card more.  Something like this, though it would be very close:

Texas might be a long shot, but it was pretty Democratic back then, the Republican was from the North:

Mitty seems right here. Texas, despite at the time being very democratic on the state level, would surely have gone Republican nationally, especially with Perot out of the race.

I think the GOP had a net gain of House (and maybe Senate seats in 92)...makes you wonder how many more states Bush Sr. would have held (despite losing to Clinton).