Can a pro-choice Louisiana Democrat win?

[Suburbia]

Do conservative pro-life Democrats like John Bel Edwards the only types of Democrats that can win in the 21st century now?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Yes, but only under extreme circumstances.

Bel Edwards likely would have still won narrowly in 2015 if he had been pro-choice, since Vitter was just a terrible candidate.

[Continential]

Yes, but only under extreme circumstances.

Bel Edwards likely would have still won narrowly in 2015 if he had been pro-choice, since Vitter was just a terrible candidate.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yes, but only under very narrow circumstances (i.e. a god awful Republican opponent). Remember that Doug Jones is pro-choice. If Alabama can do it, anywhere can, theoretically.

It's obviously a massive millstone, though.

[smoltchanov]

Only against David Vitter and Roy Moore. And even then - not 100% sure. Otherwise - remember, that majority of Democratic caucus in state Legislature is pro-life (though, usually, with some rather "natural" exceptions, but not too infrequently - absolutely).... Including subsrtantial number of  Black legislators (not so typical for other parts of the US)...

P.S. A small amount of statistics about last "Heartbeat" bill (SB 184). State Senate: White Democrats: 3 - FOR (Milkovich, Thompson and LaFleur, the first 2 are sponsors), 2 - ABSENT (Luneau, Smith); Black Democrats: 3 - FOR (Barrow, Boudreaux, Tarver), 5 - AGAINST (Bishop, Carter, Dorsey-Colomb, Morrell, Peterson), 1 - ABSENT (Price); State House: White Democrats: 12 - FOR (all, but Abramson and Leger), 2 - AGAINST (these two); Black Democrats: 4 - FOR (Moore, Cox, Jackson, Miller, the first being sponsor), 20 - AGAINST (all, but these and Norton), 1- ABSENT (Norton). All Republicans, but 2 (Leopold, Simon), who were absent in House vote, were, naturally, FOR...

Most of the anti-choice Democrats come from Acadiana and vicinity (probably - the strongest Catholic and anti-choice area in the state, despite residual economic populism). North Louisiana is well-represented too, Baton Rouge and New Orleans areas - not so much... 8 out of 12 white Democratic "pro-lifers" in House and 2 out of 3 in state Senate are term-limited this year (but - majority of their districts may go Republican instead of more liberal Democrats, though there are such districts as well).

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

What is interesting is how Bill won the state by a substantial margin in 1996. Was the abortion issue not as big then in Louisiana?

[Gracile]

Mary Landrieu was pro-choice (mostly), but I think today it would be harder for a pro-choice Democrat to win in Louisiana.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

What is interesting is how Bill won the state by a substantial margin in 1996. Was the abortion issue not as big then in Louisiana?

There were still a large number of ancestral Democrats still living back then, and Clinton's general centrism + good 'ol boy persona appealed to them even if they didn't agree with him on abortion.

[smoltchanov]

It's nearly the most pro-life state in the country and like half the Democrats in the state legislature (where they still have a quite viable 40%+ minority) are currently pro-life, so I'm going with no.  It's more possible in a state like Alabama where there are virtually no pro-life Dems left in office anyway.

In Alabama it's almost impossible too, but - by other reasons: almost all Democratic legislative caucus there is Black, while state is inelstic, polarized and only 25% Black. Without Roy Moore Democrats have zero chances there as well.... BTW - more, then half of Democratic legislative caucus in Louisiana is pro-life: closer to 65-70%.

[S019]

Landrieu did, but she got blown out in 2014, and got lucky with the environment in 2008, and then in 2002, she was a couple of points away from losing


So yeah, you either need a bad candidate, need to keep getting lucky, or a mix of both

[smoltchanov]

Let's crunch numbers a little bit more. In 2018 Louisiana Family Forum scorecard (no one for 2019 exist, but lawmakers are, generally, the same) there are exactly 5 state Senators (Carter, Morrell, Boudreaux, Peterson and Bishop) voting more or less consistenly "pro-choice" (though Boudreaux voted for SB 184 in 2019). Eight other could, sometimes, be moderate on some other social issues, but not on choice (and Dorsey Colomb was ill most of the time). All 5 are Black, and, TBH - have zero chances to be elected statewide. IIRC - situation is similar in state House, only with even less known candidates. So, more then 60% of Democratic legislative caucus in Louisiana are rather solidly "pro-life", and such position was essential even in JBE case: not sure, that he could beat even Vitter if he would take solidly pro-choice stand. And, unlike "gay marriage", both sides on this issue are "set in stone" - by most polls about half of US population is more or less "pro-choice", and almost the same number - "pro-life" since long ago. In Louisiana being "pro-choice" is a solid minus in general, and, combined with general "redness" of the state, that makes election of such candidate virtually impossible, except for most extreme cases...

P.S. And i gave statistical data about SB 184 above, which, essentially, confirms this too...

[Kizzuwanda]

If they were a Huey Long type advocating far-left economic populism, yes.

[smoltchanov]

If they were a Huey Long type advocating far-left economic populism, yes.

Well, far-left populist wouldn't win in present day Louisiana either - state is somewhat poor, but, generally, not SO poor as during Great Depression. And combination of "economic populism" and "social conservatism (especially - on choice)" was exactly JBE's platform in 2015. We will see, how it works now, realy soon....