Doug Jones vs Roy Moore 2020

[Politician]

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Senate: Moore wins by mid-single digits.
President: Landslide for Jones, at least 400 EVs but might not make it to 500 EVs

[bagelman]

It's hard to say where the chips would fall in Safe R states like WV, KY, TN, and AL itself - but it doesn't matter in the end. Moore still loses MO, IN, SC, and Jones gets a landslide result.

[Pericles]

Given presidential races are probably more polarized than Senate races Jones wins but by a margin that may be seen as underwhelming and probably loses Alabama by around high single-digits, a third-party candidate may do well in some solid GOP states.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

[UnselfconsciousTeff]

Senate: Moore  since Jones is getting primarie'd by State rep Rogers, Jr. dividing the internal democrat voter base

US President: do i even need to comment

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Senate: Moore  since Jones is getting primarie'd by State rep Rogers, Jr. dividing the internal democrat voter base

Really? That's why Jones is gonna lose? Not because it's Alabama?

[SingingAnalyst]

For Senate: Moore couldn't win in Alabama, even with some voters voting for him simply because he was the "likely" winner. With the advantages of incumbency, Jones would now be considered the likely winner. So, Jones.

For President: I see Moore possibly squeaking by in OK and WV, but nowhere else. So, a record 526 EVs for Jones (even beating Reagan's 1984 total).

[Alben Barkley]

I think we’re kidding ourselves if we say Moore could even win AR/OK/WY. Moore is the kind of candidate who could ONLY win in Alabama, and yet he still couldn’t win there. Total 50 state, 538 EV wipeout.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I think we’re kidding ourselves if we say Moore could even win AR/OK/WY. Moore is the kind of candidate who could ONLY win in Alabama, and yet he still couldn’t win there. Total 50 state, 538 EV wipeout.

I find that very hard to believe.


There's no doubt Moore would be absolutely annihilated, but I think he still wins a few states, and even if he won zero states he'd still win at least 1 electoral vote because there's no way he loses NE-3.

[Alben Barkley]

I think we’re kidding ourselves if we say Moore could even win AR/OK/WY. Moore is the kind of candidate who could ONLY win in Alabama, and yet he still couldn’t win there. Total 50 state, 538 EV wipeout.

I find that very hard to believe.


There's no doubt Moore would be absolutely annihilated, but I think he still wins a few states, and even if he won zero states he'd still win at least 1 electoral vote because there's no way he loses NE-3.

Ah yes, I didn't think about NE-3. You may have a point about that. But the fact that we're even debating whether the man could maybe win 1 electoral vote due to a quirk of the system tells you all that you need to know about how DOA his candidacy would be.

Also, the reason I think he would be so particularly screwed is, again, I pretty much think his style ONLY appeals to ANYONE in Alabama, or at least the Deep South. So not even 100% sure he could pull NE-3. If this bible-thumping, gun-toting lunatic couldn't manage to force Alabama to look past his child-molesting and mall-banning record, it's hard to imagine what states he could do it to. We know even, say, West Virginia is to this day capable of voting for Democrats under less ripe circumstances. He would be absolutely FUBAR.

[TrumpBritt24]

Easy win for Jones.

[bagelman]

Easy win for Jones.

NE-03, ND, and AR all left of TX and GA? Deliberate (if subtle) trolling.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Easy win for Jones.

Why do you have a habit of posting nonsensical maps like this?

[Cashew]

Kentucky is more elastic than the other four and no other state has enough white evangelicals to make it competitive.

[ElectionsGuy]

Doug Jones (D-AL): 464, 62.5%
Roy Moore (R-AL): 74, 35.0%

Roy Moore would be SUCH a bad fit for the northeast it would be horrendous, I have Vermont going >80% D and most other states up there >70%. On the other hand, he would overperform in the south via it's relative inelasticity. Doug Jones, I can see winning in many typically Republican plains and mountain states by appealing to the same people who voted for Billie Sutton/Laura Kelly. If a credible conservative third party ran I could see the tri-states out west voting third party, and Moore could get third place in New England if a liberal third party ran.