Predict the 2024 Primaries (GOP, Trump loses in 202)

[Tekken_Guy]

What do you think the Republican primaries will look like if Trump loses in 2020?

[Fudotei]

If Trump loses to Biden (entirely possible), there will probably be a decent sense of "post-liberal" rhetoric, the sense that the government needs a radical fix rather than new officials. (I generally figure Biden will not begin his term with a friendly senate at all, and certainly won't win it in 2022: take https://www.270towin.com/2020-senate-election/lVzerl for example)

National Review had a piece a while ago that illustrated some of the ideological trends in Trump-era conservatism. https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/06/new-american-right-schools-of-thought/ I think it's possible that Republicans start to expand on criticism of the "American-led world order" (as Mattis put it) and combine criticism of tech companies + secularism + the EU + the UN, all that, into a more comprehensive package. There will be someone who takes that pro-family view very seriously.

Realistically, though, Ron DeSantis checks off all the boxes and should be considered the favorite for 2024

[Grassroots]

I think it's possible that Republicans start to expand on criticism of the "American-led world order" (as Mattis put it) and combine criticism of tech companies + secularism + the EU + the UN, all that, into a more comprehensive package.

Funny enough how that's exactly where I want the republican party to go and if what you are saying is true then sometime in the near future I could literally have a party that's literally ideal in my eyes, which is awesome.

Overall, very good analysis.

[redeagleofficial]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
Scott Walker (R-WI)
Mike Pence (R-IN)
Charlie Baker (R-MA)

Walker takes Iowa, Baker takes New Hampshire.  Pence drops out after losing South Carolina to Crenshaw.  Crenshaw kills it in Texas, New York, Florida, and the south, making him the presumptive nominee.  Crenshaw chooses Walker as his VP to gain rust belt support in the general.

[here2view]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
Scott Walker (R-WI)
Mike Pence (R-IN)
Charlie Baker (R-MA)

Walker takes Iowa, Baker takes New Hampshire.  Pence drops out after losing South Carolina to Crenshaw.  Crenshaw kills it in Texas, New York, Florida, and the south, making him the presumptive nominee.  Crenshaw chooses Walker as his VP to gain rust belt support in the general.

Charlie Baker is not competitive in a GOP primary.

[Ilhan Apologist]

I think the candidates will be DeSantis, Hawley, Haley, Crenshaw, Blackburn, Hogan, and maybe Rick Scott as well. DeSantis is probably theMarco Rubio of 2020, considering he has no charisma and could have a similar debate moment. Hawley is a joke. Haley and Crenshaw will be competing for the "reasonable" and "electable" lane. Call me crazy, but I think Marsha Blackburn wins this.

Edit: I forgot about Cotton. I guess he could use foreign policy to distinguish himself from Blackburn, but he has no charisma.

[RINO Tom]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
Scott Walker (R-WI)
Mike Pence (R-IN)
Charlie Baker (R-MA)

Walker takes Iowa, Baker takes New Hampshire.  Pence drops out after losing South Carolina to Crenshaw.  Crenshaw kills it in Texas, New York, Florida, and the south, making him the presumptive nominee.  Crenshaw chooses Walker as his VP to gain rust belt support in the general.

Charlie Baker is not competitive in a GOP primary.

Winning one state?

[Grassroots]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
Scott Walker (R-WI)
Mike Pence (R-IN)
Charlie Baker (R-MA)

Walker takes Iowa, Baker takes New Hampshire.  Pence drops out after losing South Carolina to Crenshaw.  Crenshaw kills it in Texas, New York, Florida, and the south, making him the presumptive nominee.  Crenshaw chooses Walker as his VP to gain rust belt support in the general.

Charlie Baker is not competitive in a GOP primary.

Can this meme stop already? We know you are from Massachusetts but from a national standpoint he might not be able to win but he can at least win a few states.

[redeagleofficial]

Dan Crenshaw (R-TX)
Scott Walker (R-WI)
Mike Pence (R-IN)
Charlie Baker (R-MA)

Walker takes Iowa, Baker takes New Hampshire.  Pence drops out after losing South Carolina to Crenshaw.  Crenshaw kills it in Texas, New York, Florida, and the south, making him the presumptive nominee.  Crenshaw chooses Walker as his VP to gain rust belt support in the general.

Charlie Baker is not competitive in a GOP primary.

Can this meme stop already? We know you are from Massachusetts but from a national standpoint he might not be able to win but he can at least win a few states.

This.  He will almost certainly pivot right just like Romney did and he might be able to pick up states in the northeast.  Phil Scott could do the same as he is pretty economically conservative

[AN63093]

Way too early to know candidates.  Or even the direction of the party.  All we can say at this point is there will be your typical competing factions: "we didn't go conservative enough/we didn't turn out the base" and "we need to moderate and appeal to group XYZ".  Same as any other party that loses in every other election ever.

As to which side "wins".. well, that largely depends on the issues.  Parties form positions based on their reactions to national conditions, not the other way around.  Take immigration for example- if the economy is booming (particularly in the rust belt), real wage growth is up, and immigration (whether illegal or not) is sharply down, then there won't be appetite for an anti-immigrant candidate, no matter how badly some people want it.

And likewise, if the reverse is true, then a loudly anti-immigrant politician is going to gain traction, no matter how much other elements of the GOP may dislike it.

But again- parties form positions based on their reactions to national conditions, not the other way around.

The GOP was for much of its history a strongly pro-tariff party.  It changed its position on that not because a bunch of people woke up one day and suddenly decided they didn't like tariffs anymore so they were going to stop advocating for them.  It changed its position because the way the US economy was structured after WW2 changed and American businesses became less dependant on domestic manufacturing.  So the GOP reacted to that reality.

What issues the GOP focuses on, and what position it takes on those issues, is largely going to depend on what large national challenges the US will be facing in 2024.

[TrumpBritt24]

Democratic - Biden does not run for re-election. VP Warren easily wins the nomination and names Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe as her running mate. 

Republican - Dan Crenshaw, Nikki Haley, and Ron DeSantis are the major players. Haley pulls a Marco Rubio 2016, while DeSantis' ties to NeoCons push Trump's base away, leading to Crenshaw winning. Crenshaw selects Georgia Congressman Tom Graves as his running mate.

Congressman Crenshaw/Congressman Graves defeat Vice President Warren/Governor McAullife.