Predict the results of the 2022 Gunernatorial elections.

[Tekken_Guy]

The title is self-explanatory. Who wins re-election and who does not?

[LoneStarDem]

1.) TX: Abbott wins reelection by double digits with 61%.

2.) CA: Newsom wins with 56%, but could get recalled months later (see Gray Davis).

3.) MI: Whitmer by double digits between 13 to 16 percentage points.

[Frenchrepublican]

1.) TX: Abbott wins reelection by double digits with 61%.

2.) CA: Newsom wins with 56%, but could get recalled months later (see Gray Davis).

3.) MI: Whitmer by double digits between 13 to 16 percentage points.

It’s difficult to see Abbott winning 61% of the vote while Whitmer wins by double digits

[Politician]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

[Frenchrepublican]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Even in a Dem midterm CO will likely stay in democratic hands

[Politician]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Even in a Dem midterm CO will likely stay in democratic hands

Normally it would, but Polis is unpopular.

[Frenchrepublican]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Even in a Dem midterm CO will likely stay in democratic hands

Normally it would, but Polis is unpopular.

Is he ? I have not seen any reliable poll about his approval rate

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Even in a Dem midterm CO will likely stay in democratic hands

Normally it would, but Polis is unpopular.

Is he ? I have not seen any reliable poll about his approval rate

The last poll I saw had Polis at +18 approval.

[Mr.Phips]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Lol what Republican is going to win an open seat in Massachusetts?

[LoneStarDem]

Polis should be able to get 56% or maybe 59% in CO.

MA: I think it depends on what Baker wants to do.

[Frenchrepublican]

Polis should be able to get 56% or maybe 59% in CO.

MA: I think it depends on what Baker wants to do.

Yeah, Polis is OK

[LoneStarDem]

KS: Kelly is going to be heavily targeted due to hostile GOP-controlled KS State Legislature.

WI: Evers could go down because it's obvious the GOP-controlled WI State Legislature is using the McConnell Playbook in making him fail BIGLY.

[LabourJersey]

One thing to note is that only only two or three incumbent governors actually lose during midterm years. In 2018 only Rauner, Walker and Colyler (if you count Kansas) lost. And in 2014 only Pat Quinn and Tom Corbett lost.

Most of the shifts we will see in 2022 is going to be based around the open seats, so keep an eye on Pennsylania, Arizona, Oregon etc.

[Politician]

One thing to note is that only only two or three incumbent governors actually lose during midterm years. In 2018 only Rauner, Walker and Colyler (if you count Kansas) lost. And in 2014 only Pat Quinn and Tom Corbett lost.

Most of the shifts we will see in 2022 is going to be based around the open seats, so keep an eye on Pennsylania, Arizona, Oregon etc.

And Parnell.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Dem midterm:

Trump midterm:

Lol what Republican is going to win an open seat in Massachusetts?

Baker's probably going to run for a third term and if he does he'll win very easily.

[LoneStarDem]

PA is going to be critical.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[LoneStarDem]

On VT: Is Scott running again ?

[Fwillb21]

AZ: Ducey loses
CA: Newsom reelected
CO: Polis reelected
FL: Tossup
GA: Kemp loses
TX: Abbott loses
WI: Tossup

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dem Midterm: Kemp loses by the margin Abrams did
Trump Midterm: Kemp loses 53-47

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dem midterm:

Republicans gain : Kansas , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Oregon(If Knute is the nominee but knowing the OR GOP he won’t be )

Democrats Gain : Maryland, Massachusetts(If Baker doesnt run)


GOP midterm:

Republicans Gain : Nothing

Democrats Gain : Georgia , Arizona , Maryland , Iowa , Vermont


Also Gain : New Hampshire and Massachusetts if Sununu and Baker don’t run again

[MT Treasurer]

Dem midterm:

Republicans gain : Kansas , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Oregon(If Knute is the nominee but knowing the OR GOP he won’t be )

Democrats Gain : Nothing

I do think Republicans could hold MD-GOV if the stars align again, but it’s certainly more likely to flip than OR even in a Dem midterm. Also not sure what makes Buehler such a strong candidate, LOL.

[slothdem]

Dem midterm:

Republicans gain : Kansas , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Oregon(If Knute is the nominee but knowing the OR GOP he won’t be )

Democrats Gain : Nothing

I do think Republicans could hold MD-GOV if the stars align again, but it’s certainly more likely to flip than OR even in a Dem midterm. Also not sure what makes Buehler such a strong candidate, LOL.

Maryland Governor is Titanium D regardless of who is in the white house. If Franchot is the nominee then the Republican candidate's ceiling is probably 35%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Dem midterm:

Republicans gain : Kansas , Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Oregon(If Knute is the nominee but knowing the OR GOP he won’t be )

Democrats Gain : Nothing

I do think Republicans could hold MD-GOV if the stars align again, but it’s certainly more likely to flip than OR even in a Dem midterm. Also not sure what makes Buehler such a strong candidate, LOL.

Hogan will be term-limited and Knute did a pretty good job in 2018 regarding the environment. He very well could have won if 2018 was a Dem Midterm

[😥]

Democrat midterm:

D gain: MD
R gain: CT (assuming Lamont is very unpopular), KS (pure tossup), PA, WI
R hold: MA (assuming Baker runs)


Trump midterm

D gain: AK, AZ, GA, IA, MD, MA (assuming Baker retires)