West Virginia 2020- Who wins? Carte Goodwin v. Jim Justice

[LoneStarDem]

I don't see Manchin running for the Governorship.

[charlottegaze]

Jim Justice's approval rating is above water, and that'll be enough to win him a second term without much of a sweat.

[LoneStarDem]

Jim Justice's approval rating is above water, and that'll be enough to win him a second term without much of a sweat.

But will he live to finish a 2nd term considering his large weight & having to use a chair during his SOTS addresses ?

I mean, he is a heart attack waiting to happen.

[Epaminondas]

If Manchin is dead set on this, he would do well to run, win the Gub seat, then resign in such a way that we could name Goodwin as his own successor (2010 in reverse).

The Senate seat would be gone 2 years early, in 2022, but Goodwin would get some more executive experience with views on 2030 or so.
Better than letting Justice name his successor, which would be another flaming disaster.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Is Justice vulnerable to a GOP Primary?

It's pretty rare when a GOVERNOR of a state changes parties.  That's far more rare than a legislator changing parties, and that's because the GOVERNOR is the leader of his party in his/her state for the most part.

How many Governors switched parties while in office?  The only one I can remember is Buddy Roemer who switched to the GOP in 1991.  That didn't work out well for Roemer, whom I believe would have squeaked out reelection as a Democrat (or may have been resoundingly reelected if he was the candidate squaring off against David Duke in 1991).  Justice was a lifelong Republican who became a Democrat in order to run for Governor and switched back after less than a year in office, but I can't believe that this sat well with GOP regulars in WV.  Justice is vulnerable in a primary on general principles, given the manner in which he switched to the Democrats to get elected, and then switched right back to the GOP.  Party regulars don't like being sidestepped like that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The only person that can beat Justice is Manchin. It's a risk due to fact the GOP leadership, can pass a bill in assembly changing Gov appointment to a special election; as a result Biden, if Prez would throw his support behind Ojeda and he will put another seat at risk for McConnell in a divided Senate, whomever has the majority.

If Biden and Tim Ryan are in Oval Office,  I am willing to take risk

[LoneStarDem]

Is Justice vulnerable to a GOP Primary?

It's pretty rare when a GOVERNOR of a state changes parties.  That's far more rare than a legislator changing parties, and that's because the GOVERNOR is the leader of his party in his/her state for the most part.

How many Governors switched parties while in office?  The only one I can remember is Buddy Roemer who switched to the GOP in 1991.  That didn't work out well for Roemer, whom I believe would have squeaked out reelection as a Democrat (or may have been resoundingly reelected if he was the candidate squaring off against David Duke in 1991).  Justice was a lifelong Republican who became a Democrat in order to run for Governor and switched back after less than a year in office, but I can't believe that this sat well with GOP regulars in WV.  Justice is vulnerable in a primary on general principles, given the manner in which he switched to the Democrats to get elected, and then switched right back to the GOP.  Party regulars don't like being sidestepped like that.

Roemer was elected LA Governor in 1987 defeating EWE, who got his revenge in 1991.

EWE won 4th term in a massive landslide.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Is Justice vulnerable to a GOP Primary?

It's pretty rare when a GOVERNOR of a state changes parties.  That's far more rare than a legislator changing parties, and that's because the GOVERNOR is the leader of his party in his/her state for the most part.

How many Governors switched parties while in office?  The only one I can remember is Buddy Roemer who switched to the GOP in 1991.  That didn't work out well for Roemer, whom I believe would have squeaked out reelection as a Democrat (or may have been resoundingly reelected if he was the candidate squaring off against David Duke in 1991).  Justice was a lifelong Republican who became a Democrat in order to run for Governor and switched back after less than a year in office, but I can't believe that this sat well with GOP regulars in WV.  Justice is vulnerable in a primary on general principles, given the manner in which he switched to the Democrats to get elected, and then switched right back to the GOP.  Party regulars don't like being sidestepped like that.

Roemer was elected LA Governor in 1987 defeating EWE, who got his revenge in 1991.

EWE won 4th term in a massive landslide.

The massive landslide was due to David Duke being the GOP candidate, then being disavowed by Bush 41 and the national GOP.  Three Republicans ran, including Roemer, who was NOT the party's choice.  (Rep. Clyde Holloway was the GOP's designated candidate.). Had Roemer run as a Democrat, I believe that he would have made the runoff, beating out Edwards, and POSSIBLY facing Duke, whom he would have beaten.  How he would have fared against Holloway is another question, but Louisiana voted D plus 3 in 1992 and 1996, so his chances weren't bad as a Democrat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin, and he would appoint Richard Ojeda to fill his seat

Doubtful. He'd appoint some DINO because he thinks only such an win the next election. However, if Manchin runs and wins, I'd expect the Republican legislature to change to laws and require a special election within 90 days. Manchin could do nothing about it because he has no veto power or they pass such a bill during the lame duck session.

I mean no one would hold the seat for the dems, but can we at least be real here for a second, Earl Ray Tomblin would do better than Ojeda or someone else.

[BuckeyeNut]

Manchin, and he would appoint Richard Ojeda to fill his seat

Doubtful. He'd appoint some DINO because he thinks only such an win the next election. However, if Manchin runs and wins, I'd expect the Republican legislature to change to laws and require a special election within 90 days. Manchin could do nothing about it because he has no veto power or they pass such a bill during the lame duck session.

If there is a single forward thinking bone in Joe Manchin's body -- which there may well not be -- he would appoint Carte Goodwin again. Carte's brother, Booth, who is a former US Attorney, or his sister-in-law, Amy, who is the Mayor of Charleston, could also make good appointees.

[Politician]

Manchin, and he would appoint Richard Ojeda to fill his seat

Doubtful. He'd appoint some DINO because he thinks only such an win the next election. However, if Manchin runs and wins, I'd expect the Republican legislature to change to laws and require a special election within 90 days. Manchin could do nothing about it because he has no veto power or they pass such a bill during the lame duck session.

If there is a single forward thinking bone in Joe Manchin's body -- which there may well not be -- he would appoint Carte Goodwin again. Carte's brother, Booth, who is a former US Attorney, or his sister-in-law, Amy, who is the Mayor of Charleston, could also make good appointees.

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