Justice would beat anyone but Manchin.
In addition to beating anyone not named Manchin, he'd also beat Manchin.
That's most likely false.
Why? If Manchin just scraped by in a good year for Democrats as the incumbent against a weak opponent, why would he win as a challenger in a year that likely won't be as good for Democrats?
Because gubernatorial elections are less nationalized than senate elections. Hence why three of the bluest states have Republican governors, but none will elect Republican senators any times soon. And the reverse is true with Louisiana.