Who is Nikki Fried most likely to challenge?

[Fuzzy Bear]

She runs for reelection in 2022 and if she wins she runs against Scott as she wouldn’t have to give up her job.

She WOULD have to give up her job if she ran in 2024.  The FL Constitution requires persons who are elected to local or state office to resign their position if they choose to run for another office, including a Federal office

The only exception to this are Elected Federal officials (House and Senate) that may run for Governor. 

I'm predicting that Fried will be re-elected and then run for Governor in 2026 against whomever the GOP nominee is, as she will be term-limited.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Hopefully,  Rubio

He would be up in 2022, but Fried could run for re-election at that time.  If she were looking to move up, I'm sure that the state Dems would prefer she run against DeSantis.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I would suggest to those that look forward to Nikki Fried challenging Rubio, Scott, or DeSantis need to consider (A) that she does not cut a particularly high profile in Florida Politics right now, and (B) her position as Agriculture Commissioner, while quite influential, is one that involves a lot of administrative issues that do not cause a person to forge a notable platform from which to run for Governor as, say, the Atty General would have.  She's not well-known, and her victory was a stealth victory; it didn't make headlines and FL Democrats still act as if they didn't win anything in 2018 (when, in fact, they did elect their first statewide official since 2006). 

[Fuzzy Bear]

She runs for reelection in 2022 and if she wins she runs against Scott as she wouldn’t have to give up her job.

She WOULD have to give up her job if she ran in 2024.  The FL Constitution requires persons who are elected to local or state office to resign their position if they choose to run for another office, including a Federal office

The only exception to this are Elected Federal officials (House and Senate) that may run for Governor. 

I'm predicting that Fried will be re-elected and then run for Governor in 2026 against whomever the GOP nominee is, as she will be term-limited.

Why? She would almost certainly lose. 2026 will likely be a Dem president midterm. If a Republican is president(which is unlikely imo), then maybe. Otherwise, I would run against Scott

Scott is far more popular than people think.  And he has loads of money.  Lots of folks thought they had Rick Scott in the bag, but he's NEVER LOST AN ELECTION!!!  Think about that; a guy who's spent a good portion of his electoral life not being popular is never defeated in an election in a state that is a tossup in Presidential races (maybe a TEENIE bit lean R).