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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election)
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Author Topic: Most Shocking State Result (4 years before each election)  (Read 770 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: May 28, 2019, 01:46:19 am »
« edited: May 28, 2019, 03:28:36 am by Old School Republican »

Also say you had a good idea what the national margin for what each election would be and the wing of the party the nominees were from

This is what I think:


1960: How Close South Carolina was
1964: Mississippi
1968: South Carolina (Going Republican over Southern Democratic)
1972: New York
1976: Wisconsin
1980: Massachusetts(Narrowly over Arkansas)
1984: Pennsylvania voting to the left of New York(Nothing else was surprising)
1988: Iowa
1992: New Hampshire
1996: Arizona
2000: West Virginia
2004: Literally Nothing
2008: Virginia
2012: How Republican Missouri went
2016: Michigan
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Vosem
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2019, 02:24:18 am »

2008 was definitely Indiana, beyond a shadow of a doubt. Remains the most shocking state result of the 21st century. Hard to say from before 2000, especially since the country as a whole was more elastic, but here're the ones since then:

2000: West Virginia (but, allowing the specific candidates, Tennessee)
2004: Kind of nothing, but FL and WV were both much more Republican than might've been expected
2008: Indiana by far, with MO still going R in a distant second and NC going D in third. VA going D in a large wave would not have been surprising in 2004.
2012: Kind of nothing, but a few states swung much harder than most would've predicted; IN and WV to the Rs, AK to the Ds
2016: Michigan. Some of the swings (OH/MO to the Rs, AZ/TX to the Ds) would've been shocking, but Michigan going R outright would've been shocking, yeah.
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tara gilesbie
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2019, 12:27:11 am »

2016: Trump's respectable performance in Maine and winning ME-02
2012: Missouri's hard R swing
2008: Indiana
2004: Iowa flipping to Bush given its isolationist streak
2000: Gore losing his home state
1996: Arizona, Georgia
1992: Florida
1988: Maryland having no change from 1984
1984: Reagan only losing Minnesota
1980: Arkansas, Nevada
1976: Massachusetts
1972: McGovern's weakness in WV and strength in WI
1968: Wallace losing the Carolinas.
1964: The near-reversal of the parties Florida coalition compared with 1960
1960: South Carolina voting for a Catholic
1956: Missouri
1952: Kentucky
1948: New York
1944: Michigan
1940: Wisconsin and Ohio
1936: Pennsylvania swinging to FDR so hard
1932: None, but those Cajun's flipping to Hoover
1928: Rhode Island
1924: LaFollette losing North Dakota
1920: Tennessee voting Republican
1916: New Hampshire
1912: Utah voting for Taft
1908: Nebraska
1904: Missouri
1900: None
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2019, 01:04:15 am »

2016: Trump's respectable performance in Maine and winning ME-02
2012: Missouri's hard R swing
2008: Indiana
2004: Iowa flipping to Bush given its isolationist streak
2000: Gore losing his home state
1996: Arizona, Georgia
1992: Florida
1988: Maryland having no change from 1984
1984: Reagan only losing Minnesota
1980: Arkansas, Nevada
1976: Massachusetts
1972: McGovern's weakness in WV and strength in WI
1968: Wallace losing the Carolinas.
1964: The near-reversal of the parties Florida coalition compared with 1960
1960: South Carolina voting for a Catholic
1956: Missouri
1952: Kentucky
1948: New York
1944: Michigan
1940: Wisconsin and Ohio
1936: Pennsylvania swinging to FDR so hard
1932: None, but those Cajun's flipping to Hoover
1928: Rhode Island
1924: LaFollette losing North Dakota
1920: Tennessee voting Republican
1916: New Hampshire
1912: Utah voting for Taft
1908: Nebraska
1904: Missouri
1900: None

Some questions I have ;

2004: Bush nearly won Iowa in 2000 so it didnít require much of a shift to win it at all and 4 years prior , IA would be considered one of the states that Bush had the best chance of flipping in 04.

2000: Clinton nearly lost Tennessee in 96 , so I donít think people would consider even Gore losing that state more surprising than losing WV a state that Clinton won by 15 points and a state that even a North East Liberal like Dukakis won despite losing big time nationally .

1984 : If peolple say knew Reagan was going to win even bigger than 1980 I donít think the overall results would be surprising at all just that PA was closer than NY

1980: Why would Nevada be surprising in 1980, a Western Conservative nominee was literally the perfect fit for that state . Massachusetts was far far more surprising, the idea that a Western Conservative could win that state against an incumbent President while even Nixon couldnít is easily the most shocking result , even more than Arkansas .

1964: I donít think anyone In 1960 would think the Deep South would flip by 64

1928: Texas going Republican would be far more surprising than Rhode Island
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swamiG
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2019, 02:28:36 am »
« Edited: May 29, 2019, 03:13:22 am by swamiG »

1932: MN votes Democratic for the first time ever, and by 23 points
1936: Despite the continuance of the Dust Bowl, FDR still managed to win every state within the Great Plains, and against the Governor of Kansas nonetheless
1940: ME's strong swing towards FDR, despite being 1 of the 2 states he never managed to carry
1944: FDR's margins significantly reduced in the Upper South, with margins within the single digits in WV, KY and MO (despite Truman being on the ticket) and the Republican nearing 40% in VA and TN
1948: VA within single digits
1952: TX goes from being the Dems' best state to one of their worst performing states in the South
1956: MO votes for the Democrat in a GOP landslide
1960: The Deep South swings hard towards the GOP despite a southerner being on the Dem ticket
1964: VT votes Dem for the first time ever, and by 33 points for a southerner nonetheless
1968: SC chooses the GOP over the Dixiecrats
1972: The Dems do decently well in NYC's boroughs while getting blown out elsewhere in the state
1976: A southern Democrat nearly loses MS to a northerner and actually loses VA
1980: Same southern Democrat gets annihilated...in the South and elsewhere
1984: MN remains Democratic in a 49 state GOP sweep, despite being within 4% four years ago
1988: IA votes Dem by double digits in a 40 state GOP sweep
1992: Ticket with two southern Dems comes within single digits of carrying WY yet lose most of the former Confederacy to the GOP
1996: Uneven swing in the South, with both Dem candidates' home states swinging R (esp TN) and states like FL, WV, LA and VA swinging sharply towards them
2000: WV goes R against a southern Dem and by over 6 points nonetheless
2004: OH votes more Democratic than the rest of the country in a losing year for that party
2008: IN
2012: All-county GOP sweep in WV
2016: Dem has closest margin in UT in over 50 years yet the GOP candidate still wins the election with over 300 electoral votes
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swamiG
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2019, 02:47:09 am »

1964: I donít think anyone In 1960 would think the Deep South would flip by 64

Not all that surprising in hindsight, especially seeing how strongly it swung towards a losing GOP candidate in 1960 despite having a southerner on the Dem ticket. Granted, I don't think anyone would have guessed that the Republican would be getting 87% in MS!
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Red Tide Rick
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2019, 11:18:54 pm »

In 1984, TN was more Democratic than the nation as a whole. I guess Al Gore's reverse coattails and Carter's residual Southern strength played a big role. In 1996 NJ went from a small Clinton win in 1992 which was to the right of the national average, to a Clinton landslide in 1996.
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swamiG
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2019, 11:35:00 pm »

In 1984, TN was more Democratic than the nation as a whole. I guess Al Gore's reverse coattails and Carter's residual Southern strength played a big role. In 1996 NJ went from a small Clinton win in 1992 which was to the right of the national average, to a Clinton landslide in 1996.

Gore winning all counties, including eastern ones like Sevier probably helped lift Mondale quite a bit down there. This overperformance explains why TN was the only state to swing R in 1988. As for NJ, one could argue Perot took more Clinton's "need for change of leadership" votes up there as well as residual suburban strength for the GOP that was still around 4 years after the Willie Horton attack ads.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #8 on: June 04, 2019, 12:28:06 am »

1948: Virginia
1952: Texas
1956: California (decent leftward movement)
1960: Arizona (was a D-leaning bellwether, and Ike was a good fit, but Nixon really won it by a lot)
1964: Georgia
1968: Maine
1972: Rhode Island
1976: Georgia
1980: Massachusetts
1984: Tennessee
1988: Iowa
1992: New Hampshire
1996: Arizona
2000: West Virginia
2004: New Mexico
2008: Indiana
2012: Missouri
2016: Utah
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swamiG
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2019, 10:28:02 pm »

1948: Virginia
1952: Texas
1956: California (decent leftward movement)
1960: Arizona (was a D-leaning bellwether, and Ike was a good fit, but Nixon really won it by a lot)
1964: Georgia
1968: Maine
1972: Rhode Island
1976: Georgia
1980: Massachusetts
1984: Tennessee
1988: Iowa
1992: New Hampshire
1996: Arizona
2000: West Virginia
2004: New Mexico
2008: Indiana
2012: Missouri
2016: Utah

I think AZ swung heavily to the right following Goldwater's election to the Senate in 1952. In his re-election bid, he won by 13 points even as Dems gained a whopping 13 seats in the Sputnik midterm of 1958.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2019, 05:56:59 pm »

1992 - NH
1996 - NJ and CA becoming titanium blue
2000 - WV
2004 - Hmmm... possibly NH flipping back D before any other state?
2008 - IN
2012 - AK
2016 - TX voting to the left of IA
Bonus: 2020 - FL
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