Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever

[Matty]

What would happen in such a world, say in year 2040, if unemployment is 25% and the dem incumbent is scandal-ridden?

Would he/she simply choose to not run and another dem will win?

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

I think Trump will be the last Trumpian GOP President ever, because demographics make it harder and harder with each passing year for someone who is vocally anti-immigration to be elected.

The GOP will rebrand and moderate eventually, after being in the wilderness long enough. they aren't going anywhere.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Is there anybody who actually, unironically believes this?

[Matty]

Is there anybody who actually, unironically believes this?

Millenials voted D by 30 in 2018

[Tartarus Sauce]

Is there anybody who actually, unironically believes this?

Millenials voted D by 30 in 2018

Yeah, I know. I'm a staunch proponent of the oft-maligned "demographics is destiny" theory because we are currently observing one of the largest generational divides over politics in our nation's history, and the trends are severely bleak for Republicans. But you specifically referenced people who think there won't ever be a GOP president again after Trump.

Republicans are definitely setting themselves up to be the undisputed minority party on a national scale for an extended period of time in the not too distant future because of this, and Trump will accelerate those trends if the GOP fails to break away from his toxic mold as soon as he leaves office. That happens sometimes in America, with one party being far more dominant than the other, sometimes for several decades on end. But it doesn't stay that way forever. Eventually, the out-party accepts the changes that have occurred and readjusts, and then a new paradigm shift occurs that rescrambles the political landscape.

That's what's going to likely happen to Republicans as the political baton gets passed from the Boomers to younger generations, especially as the Millenials become the most dominant political cohort. Republicans will get locked out of power, will eventually readjust after several cycles, will become competitive on the national stage again, and then a new set of political issues will displace the old fault lines and the coalitions shift.

Anybody who thinks that there will never be another GOP president after Trump is a fool. If the GOP managed to survive extinction during the New Deal era, this is certainly not going to extinguish them. A Trumpian GOP, on the other hand, likely has a limited shelf life. It is possible that the GOP won't ever have another president in our lifetimes that adheres to his style due to how untenable it is to the emerging demographic trends and cultural shifts that are occurring within the nation.

[Matty]

Is there anybody who actually, unironically believes this?

Millenials voted D by 30 in 2018

Yeah, I know. I'm a staunch proponent of the oft-maligned "demographics is destiny" theory because we are currently observing one of the largest generational divides over politics in our nation's history, and the trends are severely bleak for Republicans. But you specifically referenced people who think their won't ever be a GOP president again after Trump.

Republicans are definitely setting themselves up to be the undisputed minority party on a national scale for an extended period of time in the not too distant future because of this, and Trump will accelerate those trends if the GOP fails to break away from his toxic mold as soon as he leaves office. That happens sometimes in America, with one party being far more dominant than the other, sometimes for several decades on end. But it doesn't stay that way forever. Eventually, the out-party accepts the changes that have occurred and readjusts, and then a new paradigm shift occurs that rescrambles the political landscape.

That's what's going to likely happen to Republicans as the political baton gets passed from the Boomers to younger generations, especially as the Millenials become the most dominant political cohort. Republicans will get locked out of power, will eventually readjust after several cycles, will become competitive on the national stage again, and then a new set of political issues will displace the old fault lines and the coalitions shift.

Anybody who thinks that there will never be another GOP president after Trump is a fool. If the GOP managed to survive extinction during the New Deal era, this is certainly not going to extinguish them. A Trumpian GOP, on the other hand, likely has a limited shelf life. It is possible that the GOP won't ever have another president in our lifetimes that adheres to his style due to how untenable it is to the emerging demographic trends and cultural shifts that are occurring within the nation.

Why would a millennial vote for a “rebranded gop” rather than stick with the dems?

[Roronoa D. Law]

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

This is a bit hysterical.


Democrats survived the civil war, Republicans survived the Great Depression and Watergate, etc. at some point the right Republican will come along win with a coalition that's quite different from Trump's 2016 coalition. no cheating required.

[AN63093]

I think Trump will be the last Trumpian GOP President ever, because demographics make it harder and harder with each passing year for someone who is vocally anti-immigration to be elected.

Why would that be the case?  Anti-immigration has existed as an ideology in this country since the founding.  It is literally one of the few issues that has been with us in almost its same form every single year this country has been in existence.  The degree to which it dominates the political landscape waxes and wanes through the years, and the particular ethnic groups it focuses on changes, but it's always been with us.  It survived waves of immigration just as big, or bigger, than the current one, and yet it's still here.  So I don't see any particular reason to think it'll just vanish one day, which appears to be just mostly wishful thinking on your part.

Now it could be true that in the future it will not be as focused on Hispanics, and Mexico in particular, but anti immigration will always exist, and there will 100% be a president in the future some time that is anti-immigration.

Now as to the OP, obviously Trump won't be the last Republican; the more interesting question is what form the GOP takes in the future.  It could be a Trumpist form, a return to Buckley-style movement conservatism, or maybe a yet-to-be-revealed third form.  The middle option of those is the least likely IMO.

[Tekken_Guy]

The reactionary right-wing populism of Trump is on borrowed time, but a more traditional GOP like the one we see in the UK or Canada could succeed in the future.

[RINO Tom]

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

See, these are the types of posts we DIDN'T used to have on Atlas ... pre-2012 Atlas looks more and more like a golden age each passing day.

I think Trump will be the last Trumpian GOP President ever, because demographics make it harder and harder with each passing year for someone who is vocally anti-immigration to be elected.

... Now as to the OP, obviously Trump won't be the last Republican; the more interesting question is what form the GOP takes in the future.  It could be a Trumpist form, a return to Buckley-style movement conservatism, or maybe a yet-to-be-revealed third form.  The middle option of those is the least likely IMO.

As for what the GOP base will be focused on in, say 60-70 years ... I am not sure.  However, I will bet the beach house that the next successful GOP "realignment" will be exactly what the folks currently what Trump hate, haha: a rather measured, Burkean conservative response to a Democratic Party that had a bit too much power and overplayed its hand.  Eisenhower-esque.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The reactionary right-wing populism of Trump is on borrowed time, but a more traditional GOP like the one we see in the UK or Canada could succeed in the future.

Thats exactly what the UK Tories have become, the GOP is far more competent than they are at the moment and less populist as well.

[RINO Tom]

The reactionary right-wing populism of Trump is on borrowed time, but a more traditional GOP like the one we see in the UK or Canada could succeed in the future.

Thats exactly what the UK Tories have become, the GOP is far more competent than they are at the moment and less populist as well.

Every party needs to be "populist" rhetorically - this was a big problem with pre-Trump Republicanism ... I'll freely admit that with hindsight - but what hardcore Trumpists assert and I flatly deny is that a mainstream conservative party must adopt policy positions that are designated as "populist" ... which on a lot of economic matters is more or less "left of center" or "redistributionist," both of which the GOP has no business treading into.

[R.P. McM]

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

They're certainly headed in a undemocratic, authoritarian direction. But minority rule will eventually collapse, and when it does, the GOP will pay dearly for a very long time. And then they'll reorganize around an electoral strategy that isn't predicated on stoking white resentment. Not sure when it'll happen — the example of CA certainly isn't encouraging — but I have to imagine they'll eventually regain their footing.

[Ilhan Apologist]

I think Trump will be the last Trumpian GOP President ever, because demographics make it harder and harder with each passing year for someone who is vocally anti-immigration to be elected.

The GOP will rebrand and moderate eventually, after being in the wilderness long enough. they aren't going anywhere.

Eh, between the citizenship question, voter suppression, gerrymandering, the electoral college, and the structure of the senate; they can retain power for plenty of time.

[R.P. McM]

Eh, between the citizenship question, voter suppression, gerrymandering, the electoral college, and the structure of the senate; they can retain power for plenty of time.

This is the only thing that makes me question the future viability of the GOP. If the Party can successfully maintain minority rule while increasingly embracing white nationalism over an extended period of time, it'll engender immense hostility. So much so that when the demographic levee eventually bursts, there'll be nothing left to grab hold of. In more specific terms, if Trump and his successors manage to harden a ~30% deficit among Millennials and Gen Z voters, then yes, there will come a time when the GOP is no longer a national party.

[Ilhan Apologist]

Eh, between the citizenship question, voter suppression, gerrymandering, the electoral college, and the structure of the senate; they can retain power for plenty of time.

This is the only thing that makes me question the future viability of the GOP. If the Party can successfully maintain minority rule while increasingly embracing white nationalism over an extended period of time, it'll engender immense hostility. So much so that when the demographic levee eventually bursts, there'll be nothing left to grab hold of. In more specific terms, if Trump and his successors manage to harden a ~30% deficit among Millennials and Gen Z voters, then yes, there will come a time when the GOP is no longer a national party.

Don't count on the demographic levee "bursting." Again, as demographics get more hostile to Republicans, they can just continue tweaking the rules to continue winning elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There probably will be one after Trump. The idea the country goes full socialist or repealing Obama, isnt right. The political system is set up for checks and balances, as opposite party dominate Congress when 1 dominate Oval Office

[Frenchrepublican]

2006 : Bush will be the last republican president ever
2008 : Obama has created a permanent democratic majority
2012 : The GOP is doomed unless they pass an amnesty bill
2019 : The GOP will die, Trump will be the last republican president ever and the USA will become a socialist country

[junior chįmp]

I've made this point many times before on Atlas (and been accused of trolling) but I legitimately dont believe that the GOP can exist as a majority political party for much longer and they know it. I think the GOP will slowly become relegated to being a borderline third party behind a Democratic party split between it's ''centrist'' faction vs. a socialist faction that will never really agree on anything and squabble over everything.

I forsee a future where there's an uneasy peace in the Democratic party similar to that which existed during the New Deal days between the Southern faction of the Democratic Party and the rest of the party. The GOP will either die off or fuse with the centrist faction while somewhere down the road (perhaps 5-6 decades from now) the party will split in two.

[R.P. McM]

2006 : Bush will be the last republican president ever
2008 : Obama has created a permanent democratic majority
2012 : The GOP is doomed unless they pass an amnesty bill
2019 : The GOP will die, Trump will be the last republican president ever and the USA will become a socialist country

2006-2018: GOP gains among Millennial and Gen Z voters: ZERO. What do y'all expect is going to happen? That old people won't die, or a ~30% deficit will reverse itself overnight? Nah, you're digging your own grave. Let's not forget that your current bases of power — the EC, the Senate, and the Supreme Court — have no democratic legitimacy.

[Frenchrepublican]

2006 : Bush will be the last republican president ever
2008 : Obama has created a permanent democratic majority
2012 : The GOP is doomed unless they pass an amnesty bill
2019 : The GOP will die, Trump will be the last republican president ever and the USA will become a socialist country

2006-2018: GOP gains among Millennial and Gen Z voters: ZERO. What do y'all expect is going to happen? That old people won't die, or a ~30% deficit will reverse itself overnight? Nah, you're digging your own grave. Let's not forget that your current bases of power — the EC, the Senate, and the Supreme Court — have no democratic legitimacy.

I don't know what will happen in the future, but the idea that the GOP will become irrelevant and the USA will become a one party country is dumb. Concerning your question, I don't expect liberal millenials to suddenly become conservative but the 30% gap will likely reduce itself over the time, just look at the Generation X, in 2006 these voters who were between 25 and 40 years old favoured Dems by 30, 12 years later these voters (who are now between 37 and 52 years old) favoured dems by a far smaller margin (people between 40 and 49 voted D 52/46). Then you have boomers who are now between 53 and 73 years and who still have between 15 and 35 years to live and who are becoming more R friendly over the time.

[AN63093]

I forsee a future where there's an uneasy peace in the Democratic party similar to that which existed during the New Deal days between the Southern faction of the Democratic Party and the rest of the party. The GOP will either die off or fuse with the centrist faction while somewhere down the road (perhaps 5-6 decades from now) the party will split in two.

Wouldn't the fact that the GOP did, in fact, survive that era tend to provide empirical evidence that your hypothetical won't occur?

[RINO Tom]

I forsee a future where there's an uneasy peace in the Democratic party similar to that which existed during the New Deal days between the Southern faction of the Democratic Party and the rest of the party. The GOP will either die off or fuse with the centrist faction while somewhere down the road (perhaps 5-6 decades from now) the party will split in two.

Wouldn't the fact that the GOP did, in fact, survive that era tend to provide empirical evidence that your hypothetical won't occur?

Exactly.  People talking about how literally the CURRENT GOP in its EXACT form is going to die out are really not learning from history.  Parties change specifically TO survive.  The GOP survived being blamed for the Great Depression, for God's sake; as the country changes, so will the GOP.  Maybe not in the next 20 or even 30 years (RP McM can get in SO many great online comments in that time frame, so nothing to worry about!), but it WILL change, and it WILL survive.

[Orser67]

Republicans are definitely setting themselves up to be the undisputed minority party on a national scale for an extended period of time in the not too distant future

Yeah, this, rather than never again electing another president, is the plausible worst-case scenario for the GOP.

But the scary thing for the GOP is that it's a very plausible worst-case scenario given demographics, recent election history, but also political history. The presidency, the House, and the Senate have all been competitive since at least 1994, but it's pretty common historically for one or more of these institutions to be dominated by one party except in the case of wave elections. For example, from 1932 to 1968, Democrats controlled the presidency for 28 of 36 years, and controlled both houses of Congress for 32 of 36 years.

I could also see a scenario similar to the period from 1874 to 1894 where the GOP dominated the Senate and the presidency but Democrats dominated the House. Except in this case, Democrats would dominate the House and the presidency and Republicans would dominate the Senate.