Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever (user search)
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  Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever (search mode)
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Author Topic: Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever  (Read 4753 times)
RINO Tom
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Posts: 17,025
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« on: June 06, 2019, 03:11:19 PM »

Of course, there will be a GOP president after Trump because they will just cheat. I fully expect Republicans will just go full blown undemocratic.

See, these are the types of posts we DIDN'T used to have on Atlas ... pre-2012 Atlas looks more and more like a golden age each passing day. Sad

I think Trump will be the last Trumpian GOP President ever, because demographics make it harder and harder with each passing year for someone who is vocally anti-immigration to be elected.

... Now as to the OP, obviously Trump won't be the last Republican; the more interesting question is what form the GOP takes in the future.  It could be a Trumpist form, a return to Buckley-style movement conservatism, or maybe a yet-to-be-revealed third form.  The middle option of those is the least likely IMO.

As for what the GOP base will be focused on in, say 60-70 years ... I am not sure.  However, I will bet the beach house that the next successful GOP "realignment" will be exactly what the folks currently what Trump hate, haha: a rather measured, Burkean conservative response to a Democratic Party that had a bit too much power and overplayed its hand.  Eisenhower-esque.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,025
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #1 on: June 06, 2019, 03:37:03 PM »

The reactionary right-wing populism of Trump is on borrowed time, but a more traditional GOP like the one we see in the UK or Canada could succeed in the future.


Thats exactly what the UK Tories have become, the GOP is far more competent than they are at the moment and less populist as well.

Every party needs to be "populist" rhetorically - this was a big problem with pre-Trump Republicanism ... I'll freely admit that with hindsight - but what hardcore Trumpists assert and I flatly deny is that a mainstream conservative party must adopt policy positions that are designated as "populist" ... which on a lot of economic matters is more or less "left of center" or "redistributionist," both of which the GOP has no business treading into.
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RINO Tom
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,025
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.45, S: -0.52

« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2019, 09:46:13 AM »

I forsee a future where there's an uneasy peace in the Democratic party similar to that which existed during the New Deal days between the Southern faction of the Democratic Party and the rest of the party. The GOP will either die off or fuse with the centrist faction while somewhere down the road (perhaps 5-6 decades from now) the party will split in two.


Wouldn't the fact that the GOP did, in fact, survive that era tend to provide empirical evidence that your hypothetical won't occur?

Exactly.  People talking about how literally the CURRENT GOP in its EXACT form is going to die out are really not learning from history.  Parties change specifically TO survive.  The GOP survived being blamed for the Great Depression, for God's sake; as the country changes, so will the GOP.  Maybe not in the next 20 or even 30 years (RP McM can get in SO many great online comments in that time frame, so nothing to worry about!), but it WILL change, and it WILL survive.
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