Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever (user search)
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  Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever (search mode)
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Author Topic: Question for those of you who think trump will be last gop president ever  (Read 4716 times)
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Posts: 984
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« on: June 18, 2019, 03:05:18 AM »

Regarding voting by age cohort, if one is allowed to compare midterms to Presidential elections, than if we compare the 2006 exit polls to 2016 exit polls and this makes for a good comparison as it is a 10 year timeframe and so it neatly fits in with exit poll age groups, the GOP did make real progress even adjusting for the national margin among the young voters of 2006. In 2006 the GOP lost 18-29 year old voters by 22%, it is likely the margin among 20-29 year olds was 22% as well, 10 years later, 30-39 year old voters, the 20-29 year old voters of 2006 voted dem by 12%, a 10% GOP shift, the GOP only gained 6% in the national vote margin.

Among 30-44 year old voters the GOP lost by 8% in 2006, it won by 3% among 40-49 year old voters and 8% among 50-64 year old voters in 2016. Overall the 30-44 cohort of 2006, the core of Gen X shifted about 12% more GOP from 2006 to 2016 larger than the 6% shift in the national margin.

Somewhat ironically, the group with the smallest GOP shift was over 65 voters that went from 49-49 to a 7% GOP win, they shifted only 7% more GOP. This remains true even if you compare 2008 to 2016, not many people know I suspect that Trump did worse than Mccain with voters over 65 which Mccain won by 8% but Trump won by only 7%, Trump also did 4% worse than Romney with voters over 65, voters over the age of 65 seemed to have really disliked Trump in 2016 for some reason compared to other GOP nominees, perhaps his vulgarity tuned them off. 
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Annatar
Jr. Member
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Posts: 984
Australia


« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2019, 12:16:37 PM »

It will be funny reading this thread in 2032 when there is a Desantis/Hawley administration and liberals are complaining about how Trump was so much better because he was lazy and did not advance a consistent anti-leftist agenda in relation to weakening the liberal elite via using the powers of the executive branch.

Regarding the issue of demographics for the GOP, as long as the GOP can achieve a 60/40/10 split with whites/hispanics/blacks it will win elections going forward for decades. If you take for example what the projected racial makeup of the electorate will be in 2032, 65% white, 15% Hispanic, 12% black and 8% other, with a 60/40/10 split and getting 40% of the 'other vote', the GOP would get 49.4% of the 2 party vote which will likely be sufficient to win an EC majority. If you just project demographic changes out and assume voting patterns stay similar to 2016 with the GOP slightly improving among Hispanics, it won't be until the 2040's that demographic change will cause any issue for the GOP's ability to win national elections.
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Annatar
Jr. Member
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Posts: 984
Australia


« Reply #2 on: July 03, 2019, 12:38:41 AM »

Trump won whites aged 30-44 by 17%, he won whites aged 45-64 by 28% and whites aged over 65 by 19%. The white voters who are 45-65 today were voting around +15 for the GOP 15 years ago and since have shifted around 13% more Republican. As long as the GOP ensures that as whites aged 30-44 basically Gen X plus early Millennial whites shift more Republican from say +17 to +27 over the next decade, the GOP will maintain its 60-40 margin with whites overall. Whites in their 30's are about as Republican as whites in their 40's and 50's were when they were in their 30's.

I would point out the huge Republican shift among younger whites from 2008-2016 is what has maintained the GOP as a competitive party. White voters in their 20's voted for Obama over Mccain by 10% in 2008. The same cohort of whites, born in 1978-1986, aged 30-38 in 2016 likely voted for Trump by around 15%, since 30-44 whites overall voted for Trump by 17%, I assume whites in early 40's are somewhat more Republican than those in their 30's so a 15% margin for Trump among whites aged 30-38 makes sense, the same whites that voted for Obama by 10% when they were 22-30. That is a 25% shift towards the GOP among whites born in the late 1970's and early 1980's.

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