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December 07, 2019, 01:32:26 am
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  Which of these Southern state will be the first to have a Dem legislature?
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Florida
 
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Georgia
 
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North Carolina
 
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Texas
 
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Author Topic: Which of these Southern state will be the first to have a Dem legislature?  (Read 913 times)
Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« on: June 07, 2019, 11:03:00 pm »
« edited: June 07, 2019, 11:29:18 pm by Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard »

North Carolina, followed by Texas.
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #1 on: June 07, 2019, 11:06:44 pm »

North Carolina.  Florida should be, but the leadership there is abysmal.
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Beshear al Assad
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« Reply #2 on: June 07, 2019, 11:09:32 pm »

North Carolina, but worth noting that Virginia will have a D trifecta eight months from now.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #3 on: June 08, 2019, 08:05:43 am »

Obviously NC because the backlash against the NC GOP is growing.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #4 on: June 08, 2019, 08:14:45 am »

If we went by current maps?

Texas easily. It has such a bad gerrymander its arguably a mild Democrat gerrymander by now.
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SirWoodbury
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« Reply #5 on: June 08, 2019, 08:26:56 am »

North Carolina, but worth noting that Virginia will have a D trifecta eight months from now.
Based on what? 2017/15 was the democrats' ceiling. I would give the democrats a 35% chance of gaining the HoD, and 40% of gaining the senate.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #6 on: June 08, 2019, 08:38:52 am »

NC is trending Dem, but not as fast as Va
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #7 on: June 08, 2019, 09:38:55 am »

North Carolina, but worth noting that Virginia will have a D trifecta eight months from now.
Based on what? 2017/15 was the democrats' ceiling. I would give the democrats a 35% chance of gaining the HoD, and 40% of gaining the senate.

Yes coz Democrats can't win a double digit clinton district.
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Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard
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« Reply #8 on: June 08, 2019, 10:57:52 am »

I am going to be contrarian and go with Georgia.  The shift in Atlanta will be too much to overcome by the middle of the next decade, and a shift to CVAP-based maps (if SCOTUS allows it) would do much less to help Republicans there than in Texas or Florida. 

NC has the no-veto rule and the rural areas haven't completely realigned yet.  The state supreme court is now 6D/1R, so they could get PA-style intervention from it, but Republicans will do everything they can to mess with the court so I am not sure if anything would stick. 

The problem with Texas is that even if Dems flipped both chambers of the legislature next year, in the event of a deadlock between the state legislature and the governor, the Texas state constitution turns legislative redistricting over to a commission of 4 statewide row offices and the Speaker of the House, with a majority vote sufficient to approve new maps for the decade.  Since Republicans won all 4 of those offices and Governor Abbott was reelected, they are already assured of controlling state legislature redistricting. 

However, with control of at least one house of the state legislature in 2021 Dems would still be able to block congressional redistricting and send it to court, and they would also be able to prevent CVAP/eligible voters redistricting as that would require passing a bill to change state law.  Of course, Republicans would be favored to flip the legislature in 2022 on the new maps they drew, so TX-GOV would be a must-win for Democrats to make the court-drawn congressional map stick for more than just the 2022 election.  The soonest I could see a Dem trifecta in Texas would be a Dem midterm wave in 2030 (2026 is very likely to have a Dem president).



I don't see the Texas state house being anywhere near as effectively gerrymandered as either chamber in Georgia due to the constitutional requirement that county lines be maintained as much as possible.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #9 on: June 08, 2019, 12:14:56 pm »

North Carolina, but worth noting that Virginia will have a D trifecta eight months from now.
Based on what? 2017/15 was the democrats' ceiling. I would give the democrats a 35% chance of gaining the HoD, and 40% of gaining the senate.

Yes coz Democrats can't win a double digit clinton district.

It's best not to even argue with SirWoodbury. he's either a painfully unfunny troll or one of the most delusional posters on this site - possibly both.
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Beshear al Assad
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« Reply #10 on: June 08, 2019, 12:18:28 pm »

North Carolina, but worth noting that Virginia will have a D trifecta eight months from now.
Based on what? 2017/15 was the democrats' ceiling. I would give the democrats a 35% chance of gaining the HoD, and 40% of gaining the senate.

Yes coz Democrats can't win a double digit clinton district.

Christ. I have Woody on ignore so I didn't see this post until now but it's good to see he's the same as always.

It would be nice if the R-homer posters on this site actually provided some sort of evidence for their claims that every state will either continue to trend R or reverse rapid-D trends.

There's zero evidence that 2017 or even 2015 was the Democratic ceiling. The claim about the 2015 being the ceiling is so egregiously bad because the state lurched several points leftward since Trump got elected (gov swing was 5-6 points left between 2013 and 2017) and there are several R Senate incumbents, elected under Obama, representing double digit Hillary districts, who haven't faced reelection in the Trump era. Like three quarters of HoD Republicans matching that profile in 2017 got BTFO. Absolutely no reason to see these incumbents holding on in 2019.

The 2017 HoD claim is also ridiculous. Republicans got the 51st House seat literally by a name being drawn out of a hat. Besides now that Ds won't have to sink money into winning districts they should have won five years ago they'll have plenty of resources devoted to flipping to remaining seats in they came close to flipping but lost (there are two of these in Va Beach/Chesterfield alone). Because Ds haven't controlled the chamber there is no controversial legislation they passed for Rs to mobilize around. A couple of Rs in Tidewater and Richmond-based districts retired as well so those seats will be even easier to pick up. The highest profile thing to be enacted was an immensely popular Medicaid expansion.

So yeah VA Trifecta is effectively guaranteed in 2019.
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #11 on: June 11, 2019, 07:49:50 pm »

NC had a lightning fast Dem trend in 2004 and 2008 just like VA did. It seemed that the growth in Raleigh, Charlotte and the research triangle would bring in lot's of college educated whites like NOVA in VA. The NC trend has dramatically slowed down compared to VA. In 2012 NC had a 1 point Dem  trend and a tiny Dem trend in 2016. NC is now 6 points more R than the national average, while VA is 3 points more D. I don't know why the NC Dem trend slowed down so much since 2012, unlike VA which seems to be racing to Maryland like status, and trended 3 points Dem in 2016.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #12 on: June 11, 2019, 08:33:29 pm »

NC Dems need to fix this.
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cvparty
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« Reply #13 on: June 12, 2019, 02:42:12 pm »

NC had a lightning fast Dem trend in 2004 and 2008 just like VA did. It seemed that the growth in Raleigh, Charlotte and the research triangle would bring in lot's of college educated whites like NOVA in VA. The NC trend has dramatically slowed down compared to VA. In 2012 NC had a 1 point Dem  trend and a tiny Dem trend in 2016. NC is now 6 points more R than the national average, while VA is 3 points more D. I don't know why the NC Dem trend slowed down so much since 2012, unlike VA which seems to be racing to Maryland like status, and trended 3 points Dem in 2016.
it actually makes total sense. virginia is wealthier and more educated due to the massive population of NOVA (also richmond to an extent). NC has some highly educated dem-trending suburbs especially around raleigh and somewhat around charlotte, but has many populous, uneducated exurban counties which cancel out much of the former trend
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #14 on: June 12, 2019, 08:11:19 pm »

MD & DE the only 2 Southern states with Dem controlled State Legislatures I think correct ?
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Socialists are Pro-Choice Fascists
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« Reply #15 on: June 12, 2019, 10:20:42 pm »

Both NC chambers flip in 2020.
TX House flips in 2020, and TX Senate in 2024.
Both GA chambers flip in 2024.
Florida House flips in 2024 but the GOP holds onto the Senate.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #16 on: June 12, 2019, 10:33:01 pm »

Both NC chambers flip in 2020.
TX House flips in 2020, and TX Senate in 2024.
Both GA chambers flip in 2024.
Florida House flips in 2024 but the GOP holds onto the Senate.

TX: Depends if the TX Dems have the balls or infrastructure.

FL: FL Dems have let everyone down so many times.

GA: GA GOP will try to shove more gerrymandering before 2024 especially if Kemp wins reelection in 2022.
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2019, 10:58:07 pm »

The only state that actually elects Democrats regularly. North Carolina.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2019, 11:02:07 am »

The only state that actually elects Democrats regularly. North Carolina.

Yeah except one of these states has a legislature that was won by a Democrat statewide. NC doesn't have that afaik.
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Politician
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« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2019, 11:28:03 am »

The only state that actually elects Democrats regularly. North Carolina.

Yeah except one of these states has a legislature that was won by a Democrat statewide. NC doesn't have that afaik.
Clearly Beto's performance is easily replicable by any Democrat in 2020.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2019, 11:54:49 am »

The only state that actually elects Democrats regularly. North Carolina.

Yeah except one of these states has a legislature that was won by a Democrat statewide. NC doesn't have that afaik.

Clearly Beto's performance is easily replicable by any Democrat in 2020.

I would say it is a tough choice between North Carolina and Texas. Im mostly going NC because of redistricting next decade.
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gracile
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« Reply #21 on: June 13, 2019, 12:02:34 pm »

The only state that actually elects Democrats regularly. North Carolina.

Yeah except one of these states has a legislature that was won by a Democrat statewide. NC doesn't have that afaik.
Clearly Beto's performance is easily replicable by any Democrat in 2020.

Beto got less raw votes than Clinton in some of the heavily Democratic (predominantly Hispanic) parts of TX, so I don't think it is fair to say that Beto's performance is the Democrat's ceiling.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2019, 07:14:05 pm »

None ever. But North Carolina is the most likely.
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