Hong Kong Democracy activists protest against Extradition Bill

[jaichind]

In the end big capital blinked.  The Pro-CCP bloc in HK is a coalition of the old pro-CCP trade unions/associations, Chinese ultra-nationalists  like myself, and big capital.  Unlike 2014 umbrella protests where this coalition held together and saw off of the protests this time around big capital is not playing ball on the premise the ROI of such a move does not justify the protests it provoked.  Carrie Lam might have to go not to please the protesters but big capital.  The pro-CCP bloc in HK pretty much want to get this behind them so the can minimize the fallout into the 2019 fall district council elections.  If Carrie Lam have to fall on the sword for this to take this then so be it from the pro-CCP alliance point of view.

[jaichind]

It is clear that during the airport shutdowns the protesters went to far as their actions was pretty much racketeering. Even factions of the mostly leaderless protesters  realized this  and started to apologize for their actions and not risk losing the popular support they do have.

Of course the core of the issue is the the popular support for these protesters are not about abstract ideas like "democracy" or "autonomy".  I agree that the protesters themselves genuinely believe in those ideals but the popular support they have, which might now start to ebb, could not give a hoot about these ideals.  The root issue is the surge in housing prices are pushing a good part of the youth and even now middle age population out of a solid middle class lifestyle. 

The segment of the population that are frustrated about this and is the core support base for the protesters direct their anger at the CCP.  To some extend they are right.  The HK government very conservative approach of zoning limits the amount of land at any point in time to be available for development for residential and commercial building.  While this pre-dates 1997 the fact is that landed big capital which is part of the the current pro-CCP bloc in HK (Chinese ultra-nationalists like myself, big capital, and pro-CCP trade unions) exerts a large influence on HK government policy to keep land prices high.  The CCP already have to manage a unwieldy and unstable Establishment bloc (the Chinese ultra-nationalists Right like myself have links to the KMT and were enemies of the pro-CCP trade unions until the 1990s) so the interests of big capital has to be accommodated creating the current situation.

To some extent the CCP is trapped.  The need HK big capital to maintain their indirect rule in HK and to throw them under the bus might not attract more supporters only serve to blow up your own coalition.  The CCP situation is similar to what the KMT experienced in their Civil War with the CCP in Northern Rural China.  One of the many reasons why we ROC were defeated by the CCP bandits where they they won the issue of land reform, especially in places like Shandong which ROC armed forces and PLA traded positions repeatedly.    When the PLA took over a county, they would drive out land owners and redistribute the land to peasants.  When the ROC armed forces retook the county the landowners who were part of the KMT coalition expected their land to be returned.  The KMT knew doing this would alienate the landless peasants but the landowner base was powerful linked to the KMT at the hip and KMT betraying them would disrupt the KMT power structure and it was not clear if the KMT would actually win enough peasant support to replace the loss of such a power structure.    Ironically the KMT rule on Taiwan Province which was occupied by Japan until 1945 land reform was easier since the KMT had no links to the local landed interest.   Some Taiwan Province land owners after land reform because urban based small to medium capital and backed the KMT while other stayed on the land and continued their opposition to the KMT and became one of the pillars of the Taiwan Right Independence.   The CCP is now in a similar situation as the KMT in 1947 Shandong Province.

Ironically the protests will most likely create such an economic disruption to create an economic recession in HK which would serve to lower land prices and indirectly give some short term relief to the core issue of high land prices.

[jaichind]

ROC pro-Green pollster 品觀點 (Pinview) also shows an ebb in more support for the HK protesters after the airport protests and confrontation.

Question: Should the government (ROC government) take action to further support the HK protesters.
Yes/No 40.9/43.1


 

[jaichind]

Just to be clear.  On ROC after a series of protest against pension reform back in 2016-2017 laws were also passed banning facial masks during protests.  I guess the difference is that in HK it was an executive ordinance and on ROC it was passed with in the legislature.  I suspect the protesters will no more accept this if LEGCO passed this law as oppose to an executive ordinance.

For me the protesters lost any sympathy from me when they commemorated 911 but did nothing for 918 a few days later (The 1931/9/18 Mukden Incident which is really the start of Sino-Japanese war.)  I have no problems with the protesters being against CCP as I have my own beef with the CCP.  But they refused to commemorate an even from the pro-PRC era but commemorate an event from USA they are just saying they are just not politically Chinese but not culturally Chinese.   

[jaichind]

Fly the ROC flag from the Legislative Council Complex please.

Sounds good to me.  At least that is better than flying the UK or USA flag.  HK is Chinese territory after all.  If you do not like PRC, fine, but don't turn into Quislings or separatists in your fight against the PRC. 

[jaichind]

Fly the ROC flag from the Legislative Council Complex please.

Sounds good to me.  At least that is better than flying the UK or USA flag.  HK is Chinese territory after all.  If you do not like PRC, fine, but don't turn into Quislings or separatists in your fight against the PRC.  

The USA and Old Hong Kong flags are not (at least in my views) are supposed to be literal support for imperialism or foreign intervention. It's more about symbols of rebellion against the political establishment.

But yes, in my ideal world, Hong Kong is merely a city in the reconstituted, democratic, constitutional, federative, Republic of China.

Agreed.  But from a PR point of view using the USA and UK flags  is a disaster from the point of view of getting support of the Mainland population on their side.

[jaichind]

Whereas Taiwan is so much more popular in mainland China?

Of course.  The general assessment of the Mainland ROC (pre-1949) era is getting fairly positive these days and for sure the ROC flag will be viewed as a legitimately Chinese flag.  

For example back in 2010 PRC and ROC activists joined forces to plant the ROC and PRC flags on the disputed Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台群島) (what we Chinese call it)/Senkaku (尖閣諸島) (what the Japanese calls it) as a way of asserting Chinese sovereignty over the disputed islands.

[jaichind]

Hong Kong protests: President Winne the Pooh warns of 'crushed bodies'

China's President Winnie the Pooh has issued a stern warning against dissent as protests continue in Hong Kong, saying any attempt to divide China will end in "crushed bodies and shattered bones".

His comments came during a state visit to Nepal on Sunday, China's state broadcaster CCTV said.

Several peaceful Hong Kong rallies descended into clashes between riot police and protesters on Sunday.

I think the message is a bit more subtle then that.  The terminology Xi used was an ancient Chinese idiom that has it origins in the Three Kingdoms Period (220-280) 粉身碎骨 which literally translated means "Body smashed into dust and bones shattered."  

The way this idiom is used is not in the literal sense but to convey that one is ready to sacrifice all for a likely worthy cause despite most likely impossible odds.  Uses of this idiom would be "For my belief I am willing to endure 粉身碎骨" or From a Chinese Buddhist  text of the Sung Dynasty "The way of the Buddha is to be willing to endure 粉身碎骨 for the greater truth"


 
What Xi mean to convey is the hopelessness of any separatist movements.  My objection to Xi's use of words is from the opposite side which is the use  粉身碎骨 tends to imply a honorable even if hopeless goal.  Why Xi is assigning such high moral virtue of what I (and I assume Xi) consider treason I do not know and I object to.  I think Xi is better of using 必敗無疑 or "Certain to meet defeat" which as a Chinese idiom implies a neutral or even negative connotation of the underlying cause.