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December 12, 2019, 01:38:12 pm
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginia)
  What if Whitmer ran in 2014
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Author Topic: What if Whitmer ran in 2014  (Read 496 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: June 09, 2019, 02:35:45 am »

Mark Schauer someone with very little name recognition nearly beat Synder, so do you think Whitmer could have that year if she ran or do you think she would have also lost
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 04:33:28 am »

My bet is she would have lost narrowly due to the national environment. Even though Democrats were expected to lose the senate and house seats ahead of the 2014 midterms, I remember some talking about a blue wave at the gubernatorial level (with pick up possibilities in Florida, Maine, Kansas, Wisconsin and Michigan). In the end, it was only Pennsylvania due to Corbett's low approval ratings.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 09:53:04 am »

Whitmer winning in 2018 was perfect.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 10:27:12 am »

Snyder was not popular, but it would have taken a truly top-tier challenger to beat him in the 2014 environment.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2019, 01:22:33 pm »

Snyder was not popular, but it would have taken a truly top-tier challenger to beat him in the 2014 environment.

2014 was a GOP year, Snyder would've won reelection regardless.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2019, 02:00:57 pm »

Snyder was not popular, but it would have taken a truly top-tier challenger to beat him in the 2014 environment.

2014 was a GOP year, Snyder would've won reelection regardless.

But Michigan was also a blue state in 2014.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2019, 02:09:11 pm »

Wait, didn't Schauer (former congressman) have a higher profile than Whitmer (state legislature) in 2014?

Whitmer was the sitting State Senator Dem Party Leader so she probably must have had a lot of name recognition. If she had a lot this year then she certainly would have had in 2014 when she was in office.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2019, 02:28:31 pm »

Wait, didn't Schauer (former congressman) have a higher profile than Whitmer (state legislature) in 2014?

Whitmer was the sitting State Senator Dem Party Leader so she probably must have had a lot of name recognition. If she had a lot this year then she certainly would have had in 2014 when she was in office.

Schauer held that same position until running for congress in 2008.

Well the wiki article says he didnt have good name recognition , while in 2018 Whitmer certainly did so it must be that Whitmer was just more known. Why that is I have no idea 
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2019, 06:28:42 pm »

I actually think she could've won, but it still would have been neck and neck and it was probably smart of her not to run because of the political environment
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2019, 06:50:59 pm »

Yeah, she wins. Snyder wasn't popular, barely ahead of Corbett. Schauer probably did the best of any of the losers considering the odds.
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henster
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2019, 07:15:44 pm »

Actually she should've ran for Senate in '14 and Peters or Kildee for Gov in '18.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2019, 04:03:33 am »

She would’ve lost and fairly badly. The electorate was like ten points to the right of 2018 if not more and Snyder was an indirect stronger candidate than Schutte. She would’ve lost by 3 or 4, the same that Schafer did.

People vastly overrated candidate strength tbh. Luck plays a much bigger role in these things - both in national environment and opponent.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2019, 02:06:25 pm »

Like I said before, Whitmer made the right decision to wait until 2018 to strike when the iron is HOT.

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2020 Dem Sweep in Maine Inevitable
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2019, 02:16:01 pm »

She would have been able to win narrowly; the only reason Snyder won in 2014 was that he was running against a retread US House member who only served a single term after the 2008 elections before losing in 2010; against a State Legislative leader, he would have lost by about 2 points; entirely due to coattails from Gary Peters; about the same amount that Democrats won the statewide US House and state legislative popular vote that year.
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