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December 10, 2019, 02:36:09 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

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  Predict trifecta status in 2020
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1063 times)
Politician
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« on: June 09, 2019, 07:16:53 pm »
« edited: June 10, 2019, 06:36:13 am by POL_Itician »

Here's the current map.



A 30% shade indicates the party not holding the governorship has supermajorities in the legislature.
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gracile
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2019, 07:46:29 pm »

Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2019, 08:03:53 pm »

New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2019, 09:58:15 pm »

I predict the following changes:
Montana: Divided government becomes Republican Trifecta
North Carolina: Divided government becomes Republican Trifecta
New Hampshire: Divided government becomes Democratic Trifecta
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2019, 10:32:41 pm »
« Edited: June 09, 2019, 10:36:26 pm by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.
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timewalker102
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« Reply #5 on: June 10, 2019, 12:31:15 am »

Kentucky loses Republican trifecta status, but not sure about Mississippi.
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #6 on: June 10, 2019, 12:38:02 am »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #7 on: June 10, 2019, 01:47:22 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 02:52:44 am by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #8 on: June 10, 2019, 07:54:53 am »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.

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Nyvin
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« Reply #9 on: June 10, 2019, 08:46:40 am »

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   
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Beshear al Assad
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« Reply #10 on: June 10, 2019, 09:42:24 am »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round. Some of these seats were incredibly easy pickups (there were an embarrassing number of Obama-Clinton-downballot R districts particularly in Fairfax/PWC/Loudon) but even still when you're aggressively targeting >15 seats you're spreading yourself thin. From a logistics standpoint 2019 should be much easier because they'll barely need to spend anything to defend many of these districts. There are still plenty of districts to target (two in VA Beach, one/two in Newport News, one in Fairfax) and there will be more resources available to target them.

Add to that a couple of R retirements and the fact that the lone Republican left in NOVA has turned hard right this session and gotten major flak for it and things look pretty good for Dems to flip the House.
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« Reply #11 on: June 10, 2019, 10:11:15 am »

New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #12 on: June 10, 2019, 10:25:36 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 10:29:14 am by Oryxslayer »

Nornal Change For the Rs:

MT Trifecta, LA Trifecta

Longshots: AK Trifecta, NC Trifecta, NV Divided, CO Divided

The normal changes are your normal gubernatorial pickups, but the longshots are a little more peculiar.  AK R's still have some ground to gain in the state house, but control depends more on negotiation then seats - 2018 saw R gains. The peculiar position of Alaskas economy right now can't help the incumbent R's in this regard. NC right now favors Cooper. NV can fall, largely because the senate chamber is so small that a three seat gain is a flip, but its unlikely given the map. CO is also close to a senate pickup for Rs, but they are still playing defensive upon examining the maps lean.

Normal D change:

VA Trifecta, MN Trifecta, AZ Divided, KS Divided

Longshots: MS Divided but Trifecta, KY Divided, TX Divided, IA divided, NH Trifecta, PA Trifecta, MI Trifecta

Unlike the R's, the dems have a long tail of potential pickups. VA and MN should be easy flips given 2018 in MN and the district leans in VA. KS also should see the state house supermajority break, but in practice it already is given the moderate-fundamentalist divide among KS Rs. AZ's rules make both chambers a tossup going into 2020, since there are presently republican senators repping double dem state house seats, and a 1 rep - 1 dem seat in the state house. Tied control is a surprisingly high possibility here.

Longshots begin with the 2019 governor races in red states. TX state house can flip given the Beto results and national dems targeting the state in 2020, but the road is narrow. IA requires advancement in marginal seats when Trump is also on the ballot, potentially a tall order. NH requires Sununu to lose, right now a tall order. PA suffers from VA2017 syndrome right now, there is a road both in the senate and the state house in 2020 following the 2018 advances, but its a lot of seats in a lot of places (SE, NW, Pittsburg region, Lehigh, Harrisburg), since the chambers are large, so chances are low. MI only has the chance of a flip if Redistricting is approved and the courts order is carried out. If so, the  state likely becomes an expected gain, but the chances of this happening are low.

One notable missing chamber is FL-Senate. Despite the closeness of the Democrats to the flip threashold, the 2020 map requires something to go wrong for republicans to lose control. MO divided also deserves mention as a missing opportunity,  because Galloway probably isn't outrunning Trump in his reelection year - if she decides to run.
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Politician
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« Reply #13 on: June 10, 2019, 10:35:37 am »
« Edited: June 10, 2019, 10:45:16 am by POL_Itician »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:
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Nyvin
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« Reply #14 on: June 10, 2019, 10:43:57 am »

New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure.   NH gov doesn't have the same kind of big profile other state govs have.   He's definitely not that popular with state party officials.   I personally think the last two candidates the NH dems ran for gov were both flops too.   

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu go down next year.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2019, 10:47:04 am »

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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #16 on: June 10, 2019, 12:08:52 pm »

TX House of Representatives & TX State Senate are NOT flipping back to the Dems until 2052 or so due to massive GOP gerrymandering.

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Inevitable Barbara Bollier
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« Reply #17 on: June 10, 2019, 12:12:31 pm »

TX House of Representatives & TX State Senate are NOT flipping back to the Dems until 2052 or so due to massive GOP gerrymandering

Are you sure? I could see it flipping in 2056, maybe 2054, but 2052? What are you smoking?
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Nyvin
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« Reply #18 on: June 10, 2019, 12:24:09 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.
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TheRealRight
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« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2019, 12:46:18 pm »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2019, 12:47:28 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine
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Nyvin
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« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2019, 01:26:07 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

Yeah and Parson losing + NC legislature flipping is hard to imagine

Is NC still getting new legislative maps?  I remember hearing about that a while ago,  but it kinda faded out of attention now.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2019, 02:05:39 pm »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2019, 03:07:12 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2019, 03:38:33 pm »

What are the odds the MI Dems win back control of both chambers of the MI State Legislature ? Whitmer needs full partners.
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