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December 09, 2019, 08:37:46 am
News: 2020 U.S. Senate Predictions are now active.

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  Predict trifecta status in 2020
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1060 times)
TheRealRight
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« Reply #25 on: June 10, 2019, 04:37:35 pm »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.

While the Republican Supermajority is gone, they still have a significant majority that won't flip any time soon.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #26 on: June 10, 2019, 05:07:06 pm »


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.

Oh wow, I didn't realize MI's court case would trigger new elections for the state senate.  In that case it's totally possible to flip if SCOTUS lets it go through.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #27 on: June 10, 2019, 05:14:05 pm »

NC: Cooper is NOT losing reelection. Stop being a God DAMN pessimist.

LA: JBE wins reelection. Divided government will continue.



There is the possibility that Roy Cooper losses reelection. He won by only 10,000 votes so he can lose by 10,000 votes. North Carolina is a pure swing state. If the gridlock in North Carolina counties a Republican may win the election which would make the state a trifecta again. 

NC Dems are NOT going to be caught napping when they have an opportunity to exact revenge on the NC GOP by flipping one or both chambers of the NC General Assembly.

While the Republican Supermajority is gone, they still have a significant majority that won't flip any time soon.

Yeah, and dems have at least five very vulnerable districts to defend in the state house
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Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear
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« Reply #28 on: June 10, 2019, 09:04:40 pm »

Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.

How many seats are up in both houses in VA?
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Deluded retread Vice Chair LFROMNJ
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« Reply #29 on: June 10, 2019, 09:43:02 pm »

Virginia is basically a sure thing.

Other than that, I would Montana (R trifecta) and Minnesota (D trifecta) are the most likely after 2020, maybe Louisiana too.

How many seats are up in both houses in VA?

all 140(40 Senate and 100 House)
All of them in MN too in 2020.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #30 on: June 11, 2019, 01:24:47 am »

D Trifecta gains: Virginia
R Trifecta gains: Montana

that's it.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: June 11, 2019, 06:29:37 am »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #32 on: June 11, 2019, 11:53:32 am »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #33 on: June 11, 2019, 12:43:29 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #34 on: June 11, 2019, 02:45:16 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2019, 03:02:52 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.

NC Dems will win back control of the NC General Assembly sooner or later, I'm not crossing it off as a lost cause just yet.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #36 on: June 11, 2019, 03:56:48 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.

NC Dems will win back control of the NC General Assembly sooner or later, I'm not crossing it off as a lost cause just yet.

Sooner or later is very vague, TBH I think that the TX House will flip before the NC House
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #37 on: June 11, 2019, 06:34:20 pm »
« Edited: June 11, 2019, 06:39:07 pm by Oryxslayer »

In 2018 NC Dems got almost everything in both chambers that is part of Wake and Mecklenburg and while there are a pair of seats still to gain (both in the Senate), they are geographically constrained in that regard. Most of the dem gains in the state are coming from those two counties. County nesting prevents a remap from changing the fundamental seat distribution,  but might help lock down the seats by unpacking the core.

Its outside of the main hubs that dems could, and might I stress could, gain from a remap. Two more dem seats should probably exist in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area if R's didn't pack the cities in, another in High Point if the city wasn't cracked, and then one other could maybe be found in the east in either Wilmington or Greenville areas. But that still leaves the dems two seats short on the house side of things for a chamber flip, and they still need to defend seats like their last rural one in the Western mountains outside of Ashville and Boone.

On the senate side, a remap leaves dems in a similar position. They currently have two easy targets in the Franklin - North Wake and South Mecklenburg seats they missed in 2018, which brings the count to 23. There is then the potential to get three more seats, one in the Black belt, one in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area, and one Southwest of Fayetteville, but even then then dems still need to defend marginals and fight hard for a majority of one.

Without remaps, dems have a ceiling in both chambers close to 52-48 Republican. The big problem for dems is just growth really. The state was only on the cusp of becoming competitive in 2008, and Obama won it in a wave. There was also still some juice in the ancestral dem tanks, be that retired/old white dems who are now dead, or rural whites who finalized their transition to the republicans. The maps have to be drawn with those 2010 demographics. Since then, the areas most democratic or with dem swings have only grown. A fair map probably is a pure tossup/tiniest tilt dem in 2020 with seat redistribution. But, NC won't get fair maps without the political situation as it currently is in NC basically remaining the same (Dem Courts, Dem Executive, R non-super majorities) or only moving in the Dems direction. So a gerry on the same level as the present map with 2020 distribution probably falls in a dem year in the vein of 2018.
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R.P. McM
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« Reply #38 on: June 12, 2019, 01:25:50 am »
« Edited: June 20, 2019, 11:17:38 pm by R.P. McM »

VA and MN are the safest choices here.  Technically MN Dems need 1 fewer seats, but I don't know how the legislative maps compare.

The biggest difference: VA Dems need to flip two chambers. One of which was up in 2017, and retained a two-seat GOP majority. In contrast, the MN House now has a 16-seat DFL majority. But there are plenty of vulnerable suburban seats in both states, so in all likelihood, all three chambers flip.

VA can be won by winning clinton seats.

MN requires winning quite a few Trump seats.

MN requires retaining some Trump seats that were retained in 2016, and/or winning some territory where the GOP was massacred in 2018. Netting two seats in a chamber that wasn't up in 2018, but corresponds exactly to a chamber in which the DFL now enjoys a 16-seat majority. In VA, Democrats have to flip a chamber they couldn't flip in 2017. A D+9 electoral result in both states translated to legislative majorities of +16 and -2, respectively. I'm not exactly sure how this corresponds to the 2016 presidential results, but I suspect the difference owes to the court-drawn MN map. Still, I predict Democrats hold all three chambers by 2021.

This is a little short sighted.

The -2 in the House of Dels was literally decided by a draw from a hat after one district had a tie. There was a 50-50 chance of Ds winning that draw and, in turn, winning the chamber (tiebreaker Lt. Gov is a D).

In addition to that, they still gained ~15 seats in one round.

And the DFL gained 18 seats, and a 16-seat majority. Don't get me wrong ó I think all three chambers will flip. But I don't think VA Democrats have quite as easy a task. In 2020, turnout will be high, and the election will be all about Trump, for better or worse. But 2019? I guarantee you, Republicans will attempt to drag Ralph Northam and Justin Fairfax into the spotlight. And they might succeed. Point being, assuming a uniform swing, the DFL is in better shape than the VA Dems. Assuming Northam and Fairfax factor in, there's every reason to believe a MN trifecta is equally, if not more likely than a VA trifecta.
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cvparty
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« Reply #39 on: June 12, 2019, 02:35:24 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.
you know meckís dem trend is because of a massive swing in the suburbs right? same for wake. itís plausible that every seat in both counties will be dem-held in the near future. plus both are growing crazy fast, which will result in constantly increasing representation
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DPKdebator
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« Reply #40 on: June 13, 2019, 07:35:14 pm »

New Hampshire is possible, even likely, as long as the D nominee is competent.

Virginia, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are the obvious choices to become trifectas.   After that I'd say Arizona has the biggest chance to "lose" trifecta status, followed by Montana. 

Not much else on the table after those five.   Kansas GOP losing it's supermajority in the State House could happen though.

Long Shots:  TX State House flipping,  NC Gov flipping, IA state House Flipping.   


New Hampshire is not an "obvious choice" or likely to become a Democratic trifecta, Sununu is running for reelection and it is highly unlikely that he loses in 2020.

I wouldn't be so sure.   NH gov doesn't have the same kind of big profile other state govs have.   He's definitely not that popular with state party officials.   I personally think the last two candidates the NH dems ran for gov were both flops too.   

I wouldn't be surprised to see Sununu go down next year.

Sununu's one of the most popular governors in the country, I highly doubt he'll lose reelection.
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