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January 25, 2020, 09:57:55 am
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  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1119 times)
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« on: June 12, 2019, 02:35:24 pm »

MN and VA Senate are all but assured. VA House is likely. Republicans probably get the Montana Governorship too.

Supreme Court will probably rule that they won't touch the North Carolina maps, so I expect the challenge to move to the overwhelmingly Democratic North Carolina Supreme Court were I expect them to strike down their state legislative maps, which could make the body super competative in 2020. Texas House is an outside shot as it all of a sudden finds itself not super gerrymandered anymore.

The NC legislature won't flip even under a ''fair map'', democrats tried to win the senate last year and hoped that the new map would hand them a majority, but they failed anyway, the main problem is that dems are very concentred in large urban counties

NC GOP is running out of Anglos because the Tar Heel State is becoming more & more biracial each & everyday.

You have also a big influx of white, older, conservative voters from other states, it's why NC is not really trending either way.

Anyway concerning the legislature, the fact that dems are more and more reliant on minorities in big cities will only deepen their problem, winning Charlotte 65/30 rather than 60/40 won't net them any new seats.
you know meckís dem trend is because of a massive swing in the suburbs right? same for wake. itís plausible that every seat in both counties will be dem-held in the near future. plus both are growing crazy fast, which will result in constantly increasing representation
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