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  Predict trifecta status in 2020 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Predict trifecta status in 2020  (Read 1129 times)
Oryxslayer
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« on: June 10, 2019, 10:25:36 am »
« edited: June 10, 2019, 10:29:14 am by Oryxslayer »

Nornal Change For the Rs:

MT Trifecta, LA Trifecta

Longshots: AK Trifecta, NC Trifecta, NV Divided, CO Divided

The normal changes are your normal gubernatorial pickups, but the longshots are a little more peculiar.  AK R's still have some ground to gain in the state house, but control depends more on negotiation then seats - 2018 saw R gains. The peculiar position of Alaskas economy right now can't help the incumbent R's in this regard. NC right now favors Cooper. NV can fall, largely because the senate chamber is so small that a three seat gain is a flip, but its unlikely given the map. CO is also close to a senate pickup for Rs, but they are still playing defensive upon examining the maps lean.

Normal D change:

VA Trifecta, MN Trifecta, AZ Divided, KS Divided

Longshots: MS Divided but Trifecta, KY Divided, TX Divided, IA divided, NH Trifecta, PA Trifecta, MI Trifecta

Unlike the R's, the dems have a long tail of potential pickups. VA and MN should be easy flips given 2018 in MN and the district leans in VA. KS also should see the state house supermajority break, but in practice it already is given the moderate-fundamentalist divide among KS Rs. AZ's rules make both chambers a tossup going into 2020, since there are presently republican senators repping double dem state house seats, and a 1 rep - 1 dem seat in the state house. Tied control is a surprisingly high possibility here.

Longshots begin with the 2019 governor races in red states. TX state house can flip given the Beto results and national dems targeting the state in 2020, but the road is narrow. IA requires advancement in marginal seats when Trump is also on the ballot, potentially a tall order. NH requires Sununu to lose, right now a tall order. PA suffers from VA2017 syndrome right now, there is a road both in the senate and the state house in 2020 following the 2018 advances, but its a lot of seats in a lot of places (SE, NW, Pittsburg region, Lehigh, Harrisburg), since the chambers are large, so chances are low. MI only has the chance of a flip if Redistricting is approved and the courts order is carried out. If so, the  state likely becomes an expected gain, but the chances of this happening are low.

One notable missing chamber is FL-Senate. Despite the closeness of the Democrats to the flip threashold, the 2020 map requires something to go wrong for republicans to lose control. MO divided also deserves mention as a missing opportunity,  because Galloway probably isn't outrunning Trump in his reelection year - if she decides to run.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2019, 03:07:12 pm »

Best case scenario for R's:


Best case scenario for D's:


Michigan's state senate isn't up till 2022.

As I said in my post, there was a court decision that threw out a bunch of MI congressional, state senate, and state house districts. But the odds of the decision actually being enacted are low - see supreme court. So if they do, there will be a elections for the full state senate per the courts ruling, and dems will liekly gain it considering the remap potential. But if not, then no.

NC trifecta also isn't happening. Even though there similarly is a low chance for a remap, dems are constrained gain wise. The west of the state saw a dems mostly hit their geographic ceiling, and the east of the state has dems constrained by the necessity of AA seats. The dems are near their ceiling geographically, with all of the gains coming around the urban cores in 2018. A remap raises that ceiling especially in the senate, but like in florida, something needs to give for a flip.

Parson losing and Republican flips in New England are possible, but you need an vibrant imagination, at least right now, to see it happening.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2019, 06:34:20 pm »
« Edited: June 11, 2019, 06:39:07 pm by Oryxslayer »

In 2018 NC Dems got almost everything in both chambers that is part of Wake and Mecklenburg and while there are a pair of seats still to gain (both in the Senate), they are geographically constrained in that regard. Most of the dem gains in the state are coming from those two counties. County nesting prevents a remap from changing the fundamental seat distribution,  but might help lock down the seats by unpacking the core.

Its outside of the main hubs that dems could, and might I stress could, gain from a remap. Two more dem seats should probably exist in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area if R's didn't pack the cities in, another in High Point if the city wasn't cracked, and then one other could maybe be found in the east in either Wilmington or Greenville areas. But that still leaves the dems two seats short on the house side of things for a chamber flip, and they still need to defend seats like their last rural one in the Western mountains outside of Ashville and Boone.

On the senate side, a remap leaves dems in a similar position. They currently have two easy targets in the Franklin - North Wake and South Mecklenburg seats they missed in 2018, which brings the count to 23. There is then the potential to get three more seats, one in the Black belt, one in the Winston-Salem/Greensboro area, and one Southwest of Fayetteville, but even then then dems still need to defend marginals and fight hard for a majority of one.

Without remaps, dems have a ceiling in both chambers close to 52-48 Republican. The big problem for dems is just growth really. The state was only on the cusp of becoming competitive in 2008, and Obama won it in a wave. There was also still some juice in the ancestral dem tanks, be that retired/old white dems who are now dead, or rural whites who finalized their transition to the republicans. The maps have to be drawn with those 2010 demographics. Since then, the areas most democratic or with dem swings have only grown. A fair map probably is a pure tossup/tiniest tilt dem in 2020 with seat redistribution. But, NC won't get fair maps without the political situation as it currently is in NC basically remaining the same (Dem Courts, Dem Executive, R non-super majorities) or only moving in the Dems direction. So a gerry on the same level as the present map with 2020 distribution probably falls in a dem year in the vein of 2018.
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